What is the T 30-day expected price range?

As of Jul 14, 2026, with T at $21.30 and ATM IV at 32.7%, the implied 30-day one-standard-deviation range is approximately ±$2.00, or about $19.30 to $23.30. IV rank is elevated, so the priced distribution is wider than the 1-year typical width.

What does T risk-neutral density tell us?

Risk-neutral density is the probability distribution of future T price implied by listed option prices. Extracted via Breeden-Litzenberger (twice-differentiating the call price function with respect to strike), it represents the pricing kernel rather than the real-world probability of outcomes. Persistent skew or fat-tail features in the density reflect how the market is pricing tail risk.

How does T ATM IV translate to a probability range?

ATM IV is annualized; multiplying by sqrt(t/365) scales it to the chosen tenor. Under lognormal assumptions, the resulting standard deviation defines the ±1σ band that contains roughly 68% of outcomes, ±2σ for 95%. Empirical equity returns have fatter tails than log-normal, so the implied tail probabilities under-state realized tail frequency in stressed regimes.

AT&T Inc. (T) Probability Analysis

Probability analysis extracts the risk-neutral probability distribution implied by option prices. It shows the market-implied likelihood of the underlying reaching various price levels by expiration.

AT&T Inc. (T) operates in the Communication Services sector, specifically the Telecommunications Services industry, with a market capitalization near $148.83B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 139,970 people, carrying a beta of 0.42 to the broader market. Globally, AT&T Inc. Led by John T. Stankey, public since 1983-11-21.

Snapshot as of Jul 14, 2026.

Spot Price: $21.30
ATM IV: 32.7%
IV Rank: 83.7%
IV Percentile: 97.2%
HV 20-Day: 34.2%
IV Skew 25Δ: 0.010

As of Jul 14, 2026, AT&T Inc. (T) at $21.30 has an ATM IV of 32.7%, implying a 30-day one-standard-deviation range of approximately ±$2.00. IV rank is 83.7% (elevated, distribution priced wider than typical). IV percentile is 97.2%. The 25-delta skew is +0.010: roughly symmetric wings. Under lognormal assumptions roughly 68% of outcomes fall within ±1σ and 95% within ±2σ; risk-neutral probability analysis refines this by extracting the market-implied distribution directly from options prices, capturing the fat tails that real markets exhibit.

How T probability analysis Data Feeds Strategy Selection

Strategy selection on AT&T Inc. options does not derive from any single metric in isolation. The probability analysis view above sits inside a broader read: ATM IV currently sits at 32.7% and dealer gamma exposure is negative, so dealer hedging amplifies directional moves. Combine the probability analysis data here with the volatility-skew surface, dealer-gamma exposure, max-pain level, and upcoming-events calendar to build a positioning thesis. Risk-defined structures (credit spreads, debit spreads, iron condors) are usually safer than naked positions while the regime is uncertain; the data on this page anchors the inputs but does not by itself constitute a trade thesis.

How to read the T probability distribution

The probability cone above is the option-market-implied distribution of where AT&T Inc. spot could end up at expiration. It's derived from the implied-volatility surface via a risk-neutral pricing transformation, not from historical realized returns. With ATM IV at 32.7% and spot at $21.30, the 1σ band is approximately ±11.3% over a 30-day horizon. Recent realized HV-20 of 34.2% runs 1.5 vol points above current implied, an inverted regime where premium buyers are underpaying.

T risk-neutral vs real-world probabilities

The probabilities derived from option prices reflect the market's risk-adjusted view, not the realized statistical distribution. Risk-neutral probabilities include the equity risk premium and skew preferences priced into options, so they tend to overstate tail probability and understate upside drift relative to actually-realized outcomes. For probability-of-touch calculations and assignment-risk modeling, risk-neutral is the right benchmark. For position-sizing your own conviction, blend with realized-volatility-based statistics from the HV columns.

Trading the T distribution

Probability-driven strategies aim to capture mispricings between the implied distribution and your own probability assessment. Premium-selling structures (credit spreads, iron condors, cash-secured puts) profit when the implied distribution overprices tail probability relative to realized; premium-buying (debit spreads, long calls/puts, long straddles) profits in the reverse. With T IV rank at 83.7%, the chain is pricing fatter tails than recent realized history; sellers earn the gap on average. Always pair probability-driven strategy selection with a stop loss or wing-defined risk - the implied distribution is a snapshot, and regime shifts can invalidate it intraday.

Learn how risk-neutral density is reported and how to read the data →

Chart aggregates top-ranked contracts by strike from the institutional-grade nightly options scan. Sparse coverage on long-tail tickers reflects the scan's S&P 500/400/600 + ETF focus.

T highest implied-volatility contracts

Type	Strike	Expiration	Volume	OI	IV	Bid	Ask
CALL	$20.00	Jul 17, 2026	136	788	952.2%	$1.26	$1.41
CALL	$21.00	Jul 17, 2026	1.6K	7.8K	758.8%	$0.38	$0.46
PUT	$21.00	Jul 17, 2026	4.2K	13.4K	758.8%	$0.05	$0.08

Top 3 contracts from the institutional-grade nightly options scan; ranked by iv within the broader S&P 500/400/600 + ETF universe.

Frequently asked T probability analysis questions

What is the T 30-day expected price range?: As of Jul 14, 2026, with T at $21.30 and ATM IV at 32.7%, the implied 30-day one-standard-deviation range is approximately ±$2.00, or about $19.30 to $23.30. IV rank is elevated, so the priced distribution is wider than the 1-year typical width.
What does T risk-neutral density tell us?: Risk-neutral density is the probability distribution of future T price implied by listed option prices. Extracted via Breeden-Litzenberger (twice-differentiating the call price function with respect to strike), it represents the pricing kernel rather than the real-world probability of outcomes. Persistent skew or fat-tail features in the density reflect how the market is pricing tail risk.
How does T ATM IV translate to a probability range?: ATM IV is annualized; multiplying by sqrt(t/365) scales it to the chosen tenor. Under lognormal assumptions, the resulting standard deviation defines the ±1σ band that contains roughly 68% of outcomes, ±2σ for 95%. Empirical equity returns have fatter tails than log-normal, so the implied tail probabilities under-state realized tail frequency in stressed regimes.