What is the current T expected move?

As of Jun 30, 2026, AT&T Inc. (T) has an expected move of 9.51% over the next 31 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $18.70 to $22.62 from the current $20.66. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the T expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is T expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

AT&T Inc. (T) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

AT&T Inc. (T) operates in the Communication Services sector, specifically the Telecommunications Services industry, with a market capitalization near $157.87B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 139,970 people, carrying a beta of 0.40 to the broader market. Globally, AT&T Inc. Led by John T. Stankey, public since 1983-11-21.

Snapshot as of Jun 30, 2026.

Spot Price: $20.66
Expected Move: 9.5%
Implied High: $22.62
Implied Low: $18.70
Front DTE: 31 days

As of Jun 30, 2026, AT&T Inc. (T) has an expected move of 9.51%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $18.70 to $22.62 from the current $20.66. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

T Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With AT&T Inc. pricing an expected move of 9.51% from $20.66, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the T implied-range chart

The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 9.51%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $18.70 to $22.62. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

T expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. T term-structure is in backwardation (slope -0.011), so near-dated tenors price in disproportionate vol - usually because of a known event in the front-month window. Combined with the 100.0% IV rank, the implied move is meaningfully wider than the typical T trailing range, so even premium-selling structures need wide wings to absorb the elevated regime.

Sizing T structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. T put/call volume ratio currently at 0.71 indicates balanced flow without strong directional skew. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for T derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $20.66 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Jul 2, 2026	2	36.8%	2.7%	$21.22	$20.10
Jul 10, 2026	10	33.8%	5.6%	$21.82	$19.50
Jul 17, 2026	17	30.3%	6.5%	$22.01	$19.31
Jul 24, 2026	24	33.7%	8.6%	$22.45	$18.87
Jul 31, 2026	31	33.1%	9.6%	$22.65	$18.67
Aug 7, 2026	38	32.0%	10.3%	$22.79	$18.53
Aug 21, 2026	52	31.8%	12.0%	$23.14	$18.18
Sep 18, 2026	80	30.3%	14.2%	$23.59	$17.73
Oct 16, 2026	108	30.6%	16.6%	$24.10	$17.22
Dec 18, 2026	171	30.2%	20.7%	$24.93	$16.39
Jan 15, 2027	199	30.3%	22.4%	$25.28	$16.04
Mar 19, 2027	262	29.0%	24.6%	$25.74	$15.58
Jun 17, 2027	352	29.8%	29.3%	$26.71	$14.61
Jan 21, 2028	570	30.0%	37.5%	$28.41	$12.91

T highest implied-volatility contracts

Type	Strike	Expiration	Volume	OI	IV	Bid	Ask
PUT	$20.50	Jul 2, 2026	3.4K	191	36.8%	$0.14	$0.16

Top 1 contracts from the institutional-grade nightly options scan; ranked by iv within the broader S&P 500/400/600 + ETF universe.

Frequently asked T expected move questions

What is the current T expected move?: As of Jun 30, 2026, AT&T Inc. (T) has an expected move of 9.51% over the next 31 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $18.70 to $22.62 from the current $20.66. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the T expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is T expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.