AT&T Inc. (T) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
AT&T Inc. (T) operates in the Communication Services sector, specifically the Telecommunications Services industry, with a market capitalization near $171.94B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 139,970 people, carrying a beta of 0.42 to the broader market. AT&T Inc. Led by John T. Stankey, public since 1983-11-21.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $24.07
- Expected Move
- 6.7%
- Implied High
- $25.69
- Implied Low
- $22.45
- Front DTE
- 28 days
As of May 15, 2026, AT&T Inc. (T) has an expected move of 6.72%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $22.45 to $25.69 from the current $24.07. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
T Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With AT&T Inc. pricing an expected move of 6.72% from $24.07, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for T derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $24.07 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 22, 2026 | 7 | 24.3% | 3.4% | $24.88 | $23.26 |
| May 29, 2026 | 14 | 23.2% | 4.5% | $25.16 | $22.98 |
| Jun 5, 2026 | 21 | 23.2% | 5.6% | $25.41 | $22.73 |
| Jun 12, 2026 | 28 | 23.2% | 6.4% | $25.62 | $22.52 |
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 23.8% | 7.3% | $25.82 | $22.32 |
| Jun 26, 2026 | 42 | 24.5% | 8.3% | $26.07 | $22.07 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 25.3% | 10.5% | $26.60 | $21.54 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 98 | 26.8% | 13.9% | $27.41 | $20.73 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 126 | 26.4% | 15.5% | $27.80 | $20.34 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 154 | 27.2% | 17.7% | $28.32 | $19.82 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 217 | 26.2% | 20.2% | $28.93 | $19.21 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 245 | 26.6% | 21.8% | $29.32 | $18.82 |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 308 | 25.9% | 23.8% | $29.80 | $18.34 |
| Jun 17, 2027 | 398 | 26.5% | 27.7% | $30.73 | $17.41 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 616 | 26.8% | 34.8% | $32.45 | $15.69 |
Frequently asked T expected move questions
- What is the current T expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, AT&T Inc. (T) has an expected move of 6.72% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $22.45 to $25.69 from the current $24.07. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the T expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is T expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.