What is the SWBI 30-day expected price range?

As of May 29, 2026, with SWBI at $15.23 and ATM IV at 62.1%, the implied 30-day one-standard-deviation range is approximately ±$2.71, or about $12.52 to $17.94.

What does SWBI risk-neutral density tell us?

Risk-neutral density is the probability distribution of future SWBI price implied by listed option prices. Extracted via Breeden-Litzenberger (twice-differentiating the call price function with respect to strike), it represents the pricing kernel rather than the real-world probability of outcomes. Persistent skew or fat-tail features in the density reflect how the market is pricing tail risk.

How does SWBI ATM IV translate to a probability range?

ATM IV is annualized; multiplying by sqrt(t/365) scales it to the chosen tenor. Under lognormal assumptions, the resulting standard deviation defines the ±1σ band that contains roughly 68% of outcomes, ±2σ for 95%. Empirical equity returns have fatter tails than log-normal, so the implied tail probabilities under-state realized tail frequency in stressed regimes.

Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. (SWBI) Probability Analysis

Probability analysis extracts the risk-neutral probability distribution implied by option prices. It shows the market-implied likelihood of the underlying reaching various price levels by expiration.

Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. (SWBI) operates in the Industrials sector, specifically the Aerospace & Defense industry, with a market capitalization near $688.3M, listed on NASDAQ, employing roughly 1,501 people, carrying a beta of 0.93 to the broader market. Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. Led by Mark Peter Smith, public since 1999-08-17.

Snapshot as of May 29, 2026.

Spot Price: $15.23
ATM IV: 62.1%
IV Rank: 57.2%
IV Percentile: 84.1%
HV 20-Day: 33.8%
IV Skew 25Δ: 0.077

As of May 29, 2026, Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. (SWBI) at $15.23 has an ATM IV of 62.1%, implying a 30-day one-standard-deviation range of approximately ±$2.71. IV rank is 57.2% (near its 1-year median). IV percentile is 84.1%. The 25-delta skew is +0.077: upside tail priced richer than downside, biasing probability mass above spot. Under lognormal assumptions roughly 68% of outcomes fall within ±1σ and 95% within ±2σ; risk-neutral probability analysis refines this by extracting the market-implied distribution directly from options prices, capturing the fat tails that real markets exhibit.

How SWBI probability analysis Data Feeds Strategy Selection

Strategy selection on Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. options does not derive from any single metric in isolation. The probability analysis view above sits inside a broader read: ATM IV currently sits at 62.1% and dealer gamma exposure is positive, so dealer hedging is mechanically mean-reverting. Combine the probability analysis data here with the volatility-skew surface, dealer-gamma exposure, max-pain level, and upcoming-events calendar to build a positioning thesis. Risk-defined structures (credit spreads, debit spreads, iron condors) are usually safer than naked positions while the regime is uncertain; the data on this page anchors the inputs but does not by itself constitute a trade thesis.

How to read the SWBI probability distribution

The probability cone above is the option-market-implied distribution of where Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. spot could end up at expiration. It's derived from the implied-volatility surface via a risk-neutral pricing transformation, not from historical realized returns. With ATM IV at 62.1% and spot at $15.23, the 1σ band is approximately ±21.4% over a 30-day horizon. Recent realized HV-20 of 33.8% runs 28.3 vol points below the current implied, suggesting the chain is pricing more dispersion than the underlying has been delivering.

SWBI risk-neutral vs real-world probabilities

The probabilities derived from option prices reflect the market's risk-adjusted view, not the realized statistical distribution. Risk-neutral probabilities include the equity risk premium and skew preferences priced into options, so they tend to overstate tail probability and understate upside drift relative to actually-realized outcomes. For probability-of-touch calculations and assignment-risk modeling, risk-neutral is the right benchmark. For position-sizing your own conviction, blend with realized-volatility-based statistics from the HV columns.

Trading the SWBI distribution

Probability-driven strategies aim to capture mispricings between the implied distribution and your own probability assessment. Premium-selling structures (credit spreads, iron condors, cash-secured puts) profit when the implied distribution overprices tail probability relative to realized; premium-buying (debit spreads, long calls/puts, long straddles) profits in the reverse. Always pair probability-driven strategy selection with a stop loss or wing-defined risk - the implied distribution is a snapshot, and regime shifts can invalidate it intraday.

Learn how risk-neutral density is reported and how to read the data →

Frequently asked SWBI probability analysis questions

What is the SWBI 30-day expected price range?: As of May 29, 2026, with SWBI at $15.23 and ATM IV at 62.1%, the implied 30-day one-standard-deviation range is approximately ±$2.71, or about $12.52 to $17.94.
What does SWBI risk-neutral density tell us?: Risk-neutral density is the probability distribution of future SWBI price implied by listed option prices. Extracted via Breeden-Litzenberger (twice-differentiating the call price function with respect to strike), it represents the pricing kernel rather than the real-world probability of outcomes. Persistent skew or fat-tail features in the density reflect how the market is pricing tail risk.
How does SWBI ATM IV translate to a probability range?: ATM IV is annualized; multiplying by sqrt(t/365) scales it to the chosen tenor. Under lognormal assumptions, the resulting standard deviation defines the ±1σ band that contains roughly 68% of outcomes, ±2σ for 95%. Empirical equity returns have fatter tails than log-normal, so the implied tail probabilities under-state realized tail frequency in stressed regimes.