Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. (SWBI) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. (SWBI) operates in the Industrials sector, specifically the Aerospace & Defense industry, with a market capitalization near $651.4M, listed on NASDAQ, employing roughly 1,501 people, carrying a beta of 0.93 to the broader market. Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. Led by Mark Peter Smith, public since 1999-08-17.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $15.41
- Expected Move
- 15.3%
- Implied High
- $17.76
- Implied Low
- $13.06
- Front DTE
- 34 days
As of May 15, 2026, Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. (SWBI) has an expected move of 15.25%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $13.06 to $17.76 from the current $15.41. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
SWBI Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. pricing an expected move of 15.25% from $15.41, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for SWBI derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $15.41 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 53.2% | 16.2% | $17.91 | $12.91 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 52.1% | 21.6% | $18.75 | $12.07 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 126 | 51.9% | 30.5% | $20.11 | $10.71 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 217 | 47.3% | 36.5% | $21.03 | $9.79 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 245 | 45.7% | 37.4% | $21.18 | $9.64 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 616 | 47.3% | 61.4% | $24.88 | $5.94 |
Frequently asked SWBI expected move questions
- What is the current SWBI expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. (SWBI) has an expected move of 15.25% over the next 34 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $13.06 to $17.76 from the current $15.41. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the SWBI expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is SWBI expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.