Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. (PTEN) Probability Analysis
Probability analysis extracts the risk-neutral probability distribution implied by option prices. It shows the market-implied likelihood of the underlying reaching various price levels by expiration.
Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. (PTEN) operates in the Energy sector, specifically the Oil & Gas Drilling industry, with a market capitalization near $4.72B, listed on NASDAQ, employing roughly 7,900 people, carrying a beta of 0.65 to the broader market. Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. Led by William Andrew Hendricks Jr., public since 1993-11-02.
Snapshot as of Aug 28, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $12.41
- ATM IV
- 55.3%
- IV Rank
- 5.3%
- IV Percentile
- 45.2%
- HV 20-Day
- 61.7%
- IV Skew 25Δ
- 0.028
As of Aug 28, 2026, Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. (PTEN) at $12.41 has an ATM IV of 55.3%, implying a 30-day one-standard-deviation range of approximately ±$1.97. IV rank is 5.3% (subdued, distribution priced tighter than usual). IV percentile is 45.2%. The 25-delta skew is +0.028: upside tail priced richer than downside, biasing probability mass above spot. Under lognormal assumptions roughly 68% of outcomes fall within ±1σ and 95% within ±2σ; risk-neutral probability analysis refines this by extracting the market-implied distribution directly from options prices, capturing the fat tails that real markets exhibit.
How PTEN probability analysis Data Feeds Strategy Selection
Strategy selection on Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. options does not derive from any single metric in isolation. The probability analysis view above sits inside a broader read: ATM IV currently sits at 55.3% and dealer gamma exposure is positive, so dealer hedging is mechanically mean-reverting. Combine the probability analysis data here with the volatility-skew surface, dealer-gamma exposure, max-pain level, and upcoming-events calendar to build a positioning thesis. Risk-defined structures (credit spreads, debit spreads, iron condors) are usually safer than naked positions while the regime is uncertain; the data on this page anchors the inputs but does not by itself constitute a trade thesis.
How to read the PTEN probability distribution
The probability cone above is the option-market-implied distribution of where Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. spot could end up at expiration. It's derived from the implied-volatility surface via a risk-neutral pricing transformation, not from historical realized returns. With ATM IV at 55.3% and spot at $12.41, the 1σ band is approximately ±19.1% over a 30-day horizon. Recent realized HV-20 of 61.7% runs 6.4 vol points above current implied, an inverted regime where premium buyers are underpaying.
PTEN risk-neutral vs real-world probabilities
The probabilities derived from option prices reflect the market's risk-adjusted view, not the realized statistical distribution. Risk-neutral probabilities include the equity risk premium and skew preferences priced into options, so they tend to overstate tail probability and understate upside drift relative to actually-realized outcomes. For probability-of-touch calculations and assignment-risk modeling, risk-neutral is the right benchmark. For position-sizing your own conviction, blend with realized-volatility-based statistics from the HV columns.
Trading the PTEN distribution
Probability-driven strategies aim to capture mispricings between the implied distribution and your own probability assessment. Premium-selling structures (credit spreads, iron condors, cash-secured puts) profit when the implied distribution overprices tail probability relative to realized; premium-buying (debit spreads, long calls/puts, long straddles) profits in the reverse. With PTEN IV rank at 5.3%, the chain is pricing tighter tails than recent realized history; buyers get cheaper optionality but need a real catalyst to monetize. Always pair probability-driven strategy selection with a stop loss or wing-defined risk - the implied distribution is a snapshot, and regime shifts can invalidate it intraday.
Learn how risk-neutral density is reported and how to read the data →
PTEN highest implied-volatility contracts
| Type | Strike | Expiration | Volume | OI | IV | Bid | Ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CALL | $12.00 | Nov 20, 2026 | 24 | 51.2K | 54.9% | $1.35 | $1.55 |
| CALL | $13.00 | Nov 20, 2026 | 186 | 50.6K | 55.0% | $1.00 | $1.10 |
| CALL | $13.00 | Nov 20, 2026 | 186 | 50.6K | 55.0% | $1.00 | $1.10 |
| CALL | $12.00 | Nov 20, 2026 | 24 | 51.2K | 54.9% | $1.35 | $1.55 |
Top 4 contracts from the institutional-grade nightly options scan; ranked by iv within the broader S&P 500/400/600 + ETF universe.
Frequently asked PTEN probability analysis questions
- What is the PTEN 30-day expected price range?
- As of Aug 28, 2026, with PTEN at $12.41 and ATM IV at 55.3%, the implied 30-day one-standard-deviation range is approximately ±$1.97, or about $10.44 to $14.38. IV rank is subdued, so the priced distribution is tighter than the 1-year typical width.
- What does PTEN risk-neutral density tell us?
- Risk-neutral density is the probability distribution of future PTEN price implied by listed option prices. Extracted via Breeden-Litzenberger (twice-differentiating the call price function with respect to strike), it represents the pricing kernel rather than the real-world probability of outcomes. Persistent skew or fat-tail features in the density reflect how the market is pricing tail risk.
- How does PTEN ATM IV translate to a probability range?
- ATM IV is annualized; multiplying by sqrt(t/365) scales it to the chosen tenor. Under lognormal assumptions, the resulting standard deviation defines the ±1σ band that contains roughly 68% of outcomes, ±2σ for 95%. Empirical equity returns have fatter tails than log-normal, so the implied tail probabilities under-state realized tail frequency in stressed regimes.