What is the PTEN 30-day expected price range?

As of May 29, 2026, with PTEN at $11.21 and ATM IV at 55.0%, the implied 30-day one-standard-deviation range is approximately ±$1.77, or about $9.44 to $12.98.

What does PTEN risk-neutral density tell us?

Risk-neutral density is the probability distribution of future PTEN price implied by listed option prices. Extracted via Breeden-Litzenberger (twice-differentiating the call price function with respect to strike), it represents the pricing kernel rather than the real-world probability of outcomes. Persistent skew or fat-tail features in the density reflect how the market is pricing tail risk.

How does PTEN ATM IV translate to a probability range?

ATM IV is annualized; multiplying by sqrt(t/365) scales it to the chosen tenor. Under lognormal assumptions, the resulting standard deviation defines the ±1σ band that contains roughly 68% of outcomes, ±2σ for 95%. Empirical equity returns have fatter tails than log-normal, so the implied tail probabilities under-state realized tail frequency in stressed regimes.

Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. (PTEN) Probability Analysis

Probability analysis extracts the risk-neutral probability distribution implied by option prices. It shows the market-implied likelihood of the underlying reaching various price levels by expiration.

Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. (PTEN) operates in the Energy sector, specifically the Oil & Gas Drilling industry, with a market capitalization near $4.36B, listed on NASDAQ, employing roughly 9,200 people, carrying a beta of 0.65 to the broader market. Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. Led by William Andrew Hendricks Jr., public since 1993-11-02.

Snapshot as of May 29, 2026.

Spot Price: $11.21
ATM IV: 55.0%
IV Rank: 30.5%
IV Percentile: 39.3%
HV 20-Day: 44.8%
IV Skew 25Δ: 0.002

As of May 29, 2026, Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. (PTEN) at $11.21 has an ATM IV of 55.0%, implying a 30-day one-standard-deviation range of approximately ±$1.77. IV rank is 30.5% (near its 1-year median). IV percentile is 39.3%. The 25-delta skew is +0.002: roughly symmetric wings. Under lognormal assumptions roughly 68% of outcomes fall within ±1σ and 95% within ±2σ; risk-neutral probability analysis refines this by extracting the market-implied distribution directly from options prices, capturing the fat tails that real markets exhibit.

How PTEN probability analysis Data Feeds Strategy Selection

Strategy selection on Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. options does not derive from any single metric in isolation. The probability analysis view above sits inside a broader read: ATM IV currently sits at 55.0% and dealer gamma exposure is positive, so dealer hedging is mechanically mean-reverting. Combine the probability analysis data here with the volatility-skew surface, dealer-gamma exposure, max-pain level, and upcoming-events calendar to build a positioning thesis. Risk-defined structures (credit spreads, debit spreads, iron condors) are usually safer than naked positions while the regime is uncertain; the data on this page anchors the inputs but does not by itself constitute a trade thesis.

How to read the PTEN probability distribution

The probability cone above is the option-market-implied distribution of where Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. spot could end up at expiration. It's derived from the implied-volatility surface via a risk-neutral pricing transformation, not from historical realized returns. With ATM IV at 55.0% and spot at $11.21, the 1σ band is approximately ±19.0% over a 30-day horizon. Recent realized HV-20 of 44.8% runs 10.2 vol points below the current implied, suggesting the chain is pricing more dispersion than the underlying has been delivering.

PTEN risk-neutral vs real-world probabilities

The probabilities derived from option prices reflect the market's risk-adjusted view, not the realized statistical distribution. Risk-neutral probabilities include the equity risk premium and skew preferences priced into options, so they tend to overstate tail probability and understate upside drift relative to actually-realized outcomes. For probability-of-touch calculations and assignment-risk modeling, risk-neutral is the right benchmark. For position-sizing your own conviction, blend with realized-volatility-based statistics from the HV columns.

Trading the PTEN distribution

Probability-driven strategies aim to capture mispricings between the implied distribution and your own probability assessment. Premium-selling structures (credit spreads, iron condors, cash-secured puts) profit when the implied distribution overprices tail probability relative to realized; premium-buying (debit spreads, long calls/puts, long straddles) profits in the reverse. Always pair probability-driven strategy selection with a stop loss or wing-defined risk - the implied distribution is a snapshot, and regime shifts can invalidate it intraday.

Learn how risk-neutral density is reported and how to read the data →

Chart aggregates top-ranked contracts by strike from the institutional-grade nightly options scan. Sparse coverage on long-tail tickers reflects the scan's S&P 500/400/600 + ETF focus.

PTEN highest implied-volatility contracts

Type	Strike	Expiration	Volume	OI	IV	Bid	Ask
CALL	$11.00	Aug 21, 2026	205	37.0K	57.6%	$1.25	$1.40
CALL	$12.00	Aug 21, 2026	0	35.6K	55.8%	$0.70	$0.95
CALL	$12.00	Aug 21, 2026	0	35.6K	55.8%	$0.70	$0.95
CALL	$11.00	Aug 21, 2026	205	37.0K	57.6%	$1.25	$1.40

Top 4 contracts from the institutional-grade nightly options scan; ranked by iv within the broader S&P 500/400/600 + ETF universe.

Frequently asked PTEN probability analysis questions

What is the PTEN 30-day expected price range?: As of May 29, 2026, with PTEN at $11.21 and ATM IV at 55.0%, the implied 30-day one-standard-deviation range is approximately ±$1.77, or about $9.44 to $12.98.
What does PTEN risk-neutral density tell us?: Risk-neutral density is the probability distribution of future PTEN price implied by listed option prices. Extracted via Breeden-Litzenberger (twice-differentiating the call price function with respect to strike), it represents the pricing kernel rather than the real-world probability of outcomes. Persistent skew or fat-tail features in the density reflect how the market is pricing tail risk.
How does PTEN ATM IV translate to a probability range?: ATM IV is annualized; multiplying by sqrt(t/365) scales it to the chosen tenor. Under lognormal assumptions, the resulting standard deviation defines the ±1σ band that contains roughly 68% of outcomes, ±2σ for 95%. Empirical equity returns have fatter tails than log-normal, so the implied tail probabilities under-state realized tail frequency in stressed regimes.