Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. (PTEN) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. (PTEN) operates in the Energy sector, specifically the Oil & Gas Drilling industry, with a market capitalization near $4.56B, listed on NASDAQ, employing roughly 9,200 people, carrying a beta of 0.65 to the broader market. Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. Led by William Andrew Hendricks Jr., public since 1993-11-02.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $12.36
- Expected Move
- 15.3%
- Implied High
- $14.25
- Implied Low
- $10.47
- Front DTE
- 34 days
As of May 15, 2026, Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. (PTEN) has an expected move of 15.28%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $10.47 to $14.25 from the current $12.36. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
PTEN Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. pricing an expected move of 15.28% from $12.36, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for PTEN derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $12.36 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 53.3% | 16.3% | $14.37 | $10.35 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 53.7% | 22.3% | $15.12 | $9.60 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 98 | 56.2% | 29.1% | $15.96 | $8.76 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 189 | 55.1% | 39.6% | $17.26 | $7.46 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 245 | 54.3% | 44.5% | $17.86 | $6.86 |
PTEN highest implied-volatility contracts
| Type | Strike | Expiration | Volume | OI | IV | Bid | Ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CALL | $11.00 | Aug 21, 2026 | 15 | 37.2K | 58.6% | $2.10 | $2.20 |
| CALL | $12.00 | Aug 21, 2026 | 26 | 35.7K | 56.2% | $1.55 | $1.65 |
| CALL | $12.00 | Aug 21, 2026 | 26 | 35.7K | 56.2% | $1.55 | $1.65 |
| CALL | $11.00 | Aug 21, 2026 | 15 | 37.2K | 58.6% | $2.10 | $2.20 |
Top 4 contracts from the ORATS-sourced nightly scan; ranked by iv within the broader S&P 500/400/600 + ETF universe.
Frequently asked PTEN expected move questions
- What is the current PTEN expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. (PTEN) has an expected move of 15.28% over the next 34 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $10.47 to $14.25 from the current $12.36. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the PTEN expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is PTEN expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.