What is the PSKY 30-day expected price range?

As of Aug 28, 2026, with PSKY at $10.93 and ATM IV at 54.0%, the implied 30-day one-standard-deviation range is approximately ±$1.69, or about $9.24 to $12.62. IV rank is subdued, so the priced distribution is tighter than the 1-year typical width.

What does PSKY risk-neutral density tell us?

Risk-neutral density is the probability distribution of future PSKY price implied by listed option prices. Extracted via Breeden-Litzenberger (twice-differentiating the call price function with respect to strike), it represents the pricing kernel rather than the real-world probability of outcomes. Persistent skew or fat-tail features in the density reflect how the market is pricing tail risk.

How does PSKY ATM IV translate to a probability range?

ATM IV is annualized; multiplying by sqrt(t/365) scales it to the chosen tenor. Under lognormal assumptions, the resulting standard deviation defines the ±1σ band that contains roughly 68% of outcomes, ±2σ for 95%. Empirical equity returns have fatter tails than log-normal, so the implied tail probabilities under-state realized tail frequency in stressed regimes.

Paramount Skydance Corporation Class B Common Stock (PSKY) Probability Analysis

Probability analysis extracts the risk-neutral probability distribution implied by option prices. It shows the market-implied likelihood of the underlying reaching various price levels by expiration.

Paramount Skydance Corporation Class B Common Stock (PSKY) operates in the Communication Services sector, specifically the Entertainment industry, with a market capitalization near $11.83B, listed on NASDAQ, employing roughly 17,600 people, carrying a beta of 1.47 to the broader market. Paramount Skydance Corporation functions as a worldwide leader in media, streaming, and entertainment. Led by David Ellison, public since 2005-12-05.

Snapshot as of Aug 28, 2026.

Spot Price: $10.93
ATM IV: 54.0%
IV Rank: 23.7%
IV Percentile: 39.3%
HV 20-Day: 30.2%
IV Skew 25Δ: -0.107

As of Aug 28, 2026, Paramount Skydance Corporation Class B Common Stock (PSKY) at $10.93 has an ATM IV of 54.0%, implying a 30-day one-standard-deviation range of approximately ±$1.69. IV rank is 23.7% (subdued, distribution priced tighter than usual). IV percentile is 39.3%. The 25-delta skew is -0.107: downside tail priced richer than upside, biasing probability mass below spot. Under lognormal assumptions roughly 68% of outcomes fall within ±1σ and 95% within ±2σ; risk-neutral probability analysis refines this by extracting the market-implied distribution directly from options prices, capturing the fat tails that real markets exhibit.

How PSKY probability analysis Data Feeds Strategy Selection

Strategy selection on Paramount Skydance Corporation Class B Common Stock options does not derive from any single metric in isolation. The probability analysis view above sits inside a broader read: ATM IV currently sits at 54.0% and dealer gamma exposure is positive, so dealer hedging is mechanically mean-reverting. Combine the probability analysis data here with the volatility-skew surface, dealer-gamma exposure, max-pain level, and upcoming-events calendar to build a positioning thesis. Risk-defined structures (credit spreads, debit spreads, iron condors) are usually safer than naked positions while the regime is uncertain; the data on this page anchors the inputs but does not by itself constitute a trade thesis.

How to read the PSKY probability distribution

The probability cone above is the option-market-implied distribution of where Paramount Skydance Corporation Class B Common Stock spot could end up at expiration. It's derived from the implied-volatility surface via a risk-neutral pricing transformation, not from historical realized returns. With ATM IV at 54.0% and spot at $10.93, the 1σ band is approximately ±18.6% over a 30-day horizon. Recent realized HV-20 of 30.2% runs 23.8 vol points below the current implied, suggesting the chain is pricing more dispersion than the underlying has been delivering.

PSKY risk-neutral vs real-world probabilities

The probabilities derived from option prices reflect the market's risk-adjusted view, not the realized statistical distribution. Risk-neutral probabilities include the equity risk premium and skew preferences priced into options, so they tend to overstate tail probability and understate upside drift relative to actually-realized outcomes. PSKY's put-skewed 25-delta surface (-0.107) means downside risk-neutral probabilities are higher than upside - the empirical bias is well-documented. For probability-of-touch calculations and assignment-risk modeling, risk-neutral is the right benchmark. For position-sizing your own conviction, blend with realized-volatility-based statistics from the HV columns.

Trading the PSKY distribution

Probability-driven strategies aim to capture mispricings between the implied distribution and your own probability assessment. Premium-selling structures (credit spreads, iron condors, cash-secured puts) profit when the implied distribution overprices tail probability relative to realized; premium-buying (debit spreads, long calls/puts, long straddles) profits in the reverse. With PSKY IV rank at 23.7%, the chain is pricing tighter tails than recent realized history; buyers get cheaper optionality but need a real catalyst to monetize. Always pair probability-driven strategy selection with a stop loss or wing-defined risk - the implied distribution is a snapshot, and regime shifts can invalidate it intraday.

Learn how risk-neutral density is reported and how to read the data →

Chart aggregates top-ranked contracts by strike from the institutional-grade nightly options scan. Sparse coverage on long-tail tickers reflects the scan's S&P 500/400/600 + ETF focus.

PSKY highest implied-volatility contracts

Type	Strike	Expiration	Volume	OI	IV	Bid	Ask
PUT	$10.00	Jan 21, 2028	70	127.1K	53.6%	$1.88	$2.02
CALL	$12.00	Dec 18, 2026	1.1K	87.1K	57.1%	$0.93	$0.94
PUT	$8.00	Jan 15, 2027	0	72.4K	54.1%	$0.22	$0.37
PUT	$12.00	Jan 15, 2027	250	58.3K	55.2%	$1.86	$2.21
CALL	$17.00	Jan 15, 2027	3	57.8K	57.6%	$0.20	$0.25
CALL	$10.00	Jan 15, 2027	24	54.2K	54.1%	$1.60	$2.00

Top 6 contracts from the institutional-grade nightly options scan; ranked by iv within the broader S&P 500/400/600 + ETF universe.

Frequently asked PSKY probability analysis questions

What is the PSKY 30-day expected price range?: As of Aug 28, 2026, with PSKY at $10.93 and ATM IV at 54.0%, the implied 30-day one-standard-deviation range is approximately ±$1.69, or about $9.24 to $12.62. IV rank is subdued, so the priced distribution is tighter than the 1-year typical width.
What does PSKY risk-neutral density tell us?: Risk-neutral density is the probability distribution of future PSKY price implied by listed option prices. Extracted via Breeden-Litzenberger (twice-differentiating the call price function with respect to strike), it represents the pricing kernel rather than the real-world probability of outcomes. Persistent skew or fat-tail features in the density reflect how the market is pricing tail risk.
How does PSKY ATM IV translate to a probability range?: ATM IV is annualized; multiplying by sqrt(t/365) scales it to the chosen tenor. Under lognormal assumptions, the resulting standard deviation defines the ±1σ band that contains roughly 68% of outcomes, ±2σ for 95%. Empirical equity returns have fatter tails than log-normal, so the implied tail probabilities under-state realized tail frequency in stressed regimes.