Paramount Skydance Corporation Class B Common Stock (PSKY) Probability Analysis
Probability analysis extracts the risk-neutral probability distribution implied by option prices. It shows the market-implied likelihood of the underlying reaching various price levels by expiration.
Paramount Skydance Corporation Class B Common Stock (PSKY) operates in the Communication Services sector, specifically the Entertainment industry, with a market capitalization near $11.55B, listed on NASDAQ, employing roughly 18,600 people, carrying a beta of 1.45 to the broader market. Paramount Skydance Corporation operates as a media, streaming, and entertainment company worldwide. Led by David Ellison, public since 2005-12-05.
Snapshot as of May 29, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $10.63
- ATM IV
- 48.2%
- IV Rank
- 6.1%
- IV Percentile
- 9.2%
- HV 20-Day
- 44.5%
- IV Skew 25Δ
- -0.012
As of May 29, 2026, Paramount Skydance Corporation Class B Common Stock (PSKY) at $10.63 has an ATM IV of 48.2%, implying a 30-day one-standard-deviation range of approximately ±$1.47. IV rank is 6.1% (subdued, distribution priced tighter than usual). IV percentile is 9.2%. The 25-delta skew is -0.012: roughly symmetric wings. Under lognormal assumptions roughly 68% of outcomes fall within ±1σ and 95% within ±2σ; risk-neutral probability analysis refines this by extracting the market-implied distribution directly from options prices, capturing the fat tails that real markets exhibit.
How PSKY probability analysis Data Feeds Strategy Selection
Strategy selection on Paramount Skydance Corporation Class B Common Stock options does not derive from any single metric in isolation. The probability analysis view above sits inside a broader read: ATM IV currently sits at 48.2% and dealer gamma exposure is negative, so dealer hedging amplifies directional moves. Combine the probability analysis data here with the volatility-skew surface, dealer-gamma exposure, max-pain level, and upcoming-events calendar to build a positioning thesis. Risk-defined structures (credit spreads, debit spreads, iron condors) are usually safer than naked positions while the regime is uncertain; the data on this page anchors the inputs but does not by itself constitute a trade thesis.
How to read the PSKY probability distribution
The probability cone above is the option-market-implied distribution of where Paramount Skydance Corporation Class B Common Stock spot could end up at expiration. It's derived from the implied-volatility surface via a risk-neutral pricing transformation, not from historical realized returns. With ATM IV at 48.2% and spot at $10.63, the 1σ band is approximately ±16.6% over a 30-day horizon. Recent realized HV-20 of 44.5% runs 3.7 vol points below the current implied, suggesting the chain is pricing more dispersion than the underlying has been delivering.
PSKY risk-neutral vs real-world probabilities
The probabilities derived from option prices reflect the market's risk-adjusted view, not the realized statistical distribution. Risk-neutral probabilities include the equity risk premium and skew preferences priced into options, so they tend to overstate tail probability and understate upside drift relative to actually-realized outcomes. For probability-of-touch calculations and assignment-risk modeling, risk-neutral is the right benchmark. For position-sizing your own conviction, blend with realized-volatility-based statistics from the HV columns.
Trading the PSKY distribution
Probability-driven strategies aim to capture mispricings between the implied distribution and your own probability assessment. Premium-selling structures (credit spreads, iron condors, cash-secured puts) profit when the implied distribution overprices tail probability relative to realized; premium-buying (debit spreads, long calls/puts, long straddles) profits in the reverse. With PSKY IV rank at 6.1%, the chain is pricing tighter tails than recent realized history; buyers get cheaper optionality but need a real catalyst to monetize. Always pair probability-driven strategy selection with a stop loss or wing-defined risk - the implied distribution is a snapshot, and regime shifts can invalidate it intraday.
Learn how risk-neutral density is reported and how to read the data →
PSKY highest implied-volatility contracts
| Type | Strike | Expiration | Volume | OI | IV | Bid | Ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PUT | $10.00 | Jan 21, 2028 | 0 | 124.2K | 54.3% | $2.21 | $2.42 |
| PUT | $8.00 | Jan 15, 2027 | 0 | 70.9K | 57.3% | $0.62 | $0.77 |
| CALL | $17.00 | Jan 15, 2027 | 76 | 58.0K | 58.6% | $0.46 | $0.76 |
| PUT | $12.00 | Jan 15, 2027 | 0 | 57.3K | 58.1% | $2.66 | $2.94 |
Top 4 contracts from the institutional-grade nightly options scan; ranked by iv within the broader S&P 500/400/600 + ETF universe.
Frequently asked PSKY probability analysis questions
- What is the PSKY 30-day expected price range?
- As of May 29, 2026, with PSKY at $10.63 and ATM IV at 48.2%, the implied 30-day one-standard-deviation range is approximately ±$1.47, or about $9.16 to $12.10. IV rank is subdued, so the priced distribution is tighter than the 1-year typical width.
- What does PSKY risk-neutral density tell us?
- Risk-neutral density is the probability distribution of future PSKY price implied by listed option prices. Extracted via Breeden-Litzenberger (twice-differentiating the call price function with respect to strike), it represents the pricing kernel rather than the real-world probability of outcomes. Persistent skew or fat-tail features in the density reflect how the market is pricing tail risk.
- How does PSKY ATM IV translate to a probability range?
- ATM IV is annualized; multiplying by sqrt(t/365) scales it to the chosen tenor. Under lognormal assumptions, the resulting standard deviation defines the ±1σ band that contains roughly 68% of outcomes, ±2σ for 95%. Empirical equity returns have fatter tails than log-normal, so the implied tail probabilities under-state realized tail frequency in stressed regimes.