What is the PSKY 30-day expected price range?

As of Jul 15, 2026, with PSKY at $9.21 and ATM IV at 63.5%, the implied 30-day one-standard-deviation range is approximately ±$1.68, or about $7.53 to $10.89. IV rank is subdued, so the priced distribution is tighter than the 1-year typical width.

What does PSKY risk-neutral density tell us?

Risk-neutral density is the probability distribution of future PSKY price implied by listed option prices. Extracted via Breeden-Litzenberger (twice-differentiating the call price function with respect to strike), it represents the pricing kernel rather than the real-world probability of outcomes. Persistent skew or fat-tail features in the density reflect how the market is pricing tail risk.

How does PSKY ATM IV translate to a probability range?

ATM IV is annualized; multiplying by sqrt(t/365) scales it to the chosen tenor. Under lognormal assumptions, the resulting standard deviation defines the ±1σ band that contains roughly 68% of outcomes, ±2σ for 95%. Empirical equity returns have fatter tails than log-normal, so the implied tail probabilities under-state realized tail frequency in stressed regimes.

Paramount Skydance Corporation Class B Common Stock (PSKY) Probability Analysis

Probability analysis extracts the risk-neutral probability distribution implied by option prices. It shows the market-implied likelihood of the underlying reaching various price levels by expiration.

Paramount Skydance Corporation Class B Common Stock (PSKY) operates in the Communication Services sector, specifically the Entertainment industry, with a market capitalization near $10.06B, listed on NASDAQ, employing roughly 17,600 people, carrying a beta of 1.45 to the broader market. Paramount Skydance Corporation functions as a worldwide leader in media, streaming, and entertainment. Led by David Ellison, public since 2005-12-05.

Snapshot as of Jul 15, 2026.

Spot Price: $9.21
ATM IV: 63.5%
IV Rank: 26.2%
IV Percentile: 83.5%
HV 20-Day: 30.8%
IV Skew 25Δ: -0.025

As of Jul 15, 2026, Paramount Skydance Corporation Class B Common Stock (PSKY) at $9.21 has an ATM IV of 63.5%, implying a 30-day one-standard-deviation range of approximately ±$1.68. IV rank is 26.2% (subdued, distribution priced tighter than usual). IV percentile is 83.5%. The 25-delta skew is -0.025: downside tail priced richer than upside, biasing probability mass below spot. Under lognormal assumptions roughly 68% of outcomes fall within ±1σ and 95% within ±2σ; risk-neutral probability analysis refines this by extracting the market-implied distribution directly from options prices, capturing the fat tails that real markets exhibit.

How PSKY probability analysis Data Feeds Strategy Selection

Strategy selection on Paramount Skydance Corporation Class B Common Stock options does not derive from any single metric in isolation. The probability analysis view above sits inside a broader read: ATM IV currently sits at 63.5% and dealer gamma exposure is negative, so dealer hedging amplifies directional moves. Combine the probability analysis data here with the volatility-skew surface, dealer-gamma exposure, max-pain level, and upcoming-events calendar to build a positioning thesis. Risk-defined structures (credit spreads, debit spreads, iron condors) are usually safer than naked positions while the regime is uncertain; the data on this page anchors the inputs but does not by itself constitute a trade thesis.

How to read the PSKY probability distribution

The probability cone above is the option-market-implied distribution of where Paramount Skydance Corporation Class B Common Stock spot could end up at expiration. It's derived from the implied-volatility surface via a risk-neutral pricing transformation, not from historical realized returns. With ATM IV at 63.5% and spot at $9.21, the 1σ band is approximately ±21.9% over a 30-day horizon. Recent realized HV-20 of 30.8% runs 32.7 vol points below the current implied, suggesting the chain is pricing more dispersion than the underlying has been delivering.

PSKY risk-neutral vs real-world probabilities

The probabilities derived from option prices reflect the market's risk-adjusted view, not the realized statistical distribution. Risk-neutral probabilities include the equity risk premium and skew preferences priced into options, so they tend to overstate tail probability and understate upside drift relative to actually-realized outcomes. PSKY's put-skewed 25-delta surface (-0.025) means downside risk-neutral probabilities are higher than upside - the empirical bias is well-documented. For probability-of-touch calculations and assignment-risk modeling, risk-neutral is the right benchmark. For position-sizing your own conviction, blend with realized-volatility-based statistics from the HV columns.

Trading the PSKY distribution

Probability-driven strategies aim to capture mispricings between the implied distribution and your own probability assessment. Premium-selling structures (credit spreads, iron condors, cash-secured puts) profit when the implied distribution overprices tail probability relative to realized; premium-buying (debit spreads, long calls/puts, long straddles) profits in the reverse. With PSKY IV rank at 26.2%, the chain is pricing tighter tails than recent realized history; buyers get cheaper optionality but need a real catalyst to monetize. Always pair probability-driven strategy selection with a stop loss or wing-defined risk - the implied distribution is a snapshot, and regime shifts can invalidate it intraday.

Learn how risk-neutral density is reported and how to read the data →

Chart aggregates top-ranked contracts by strike from the institutional-grade nightly options scan. Sparse coverage on long-tail tickers reflects the scan's S&P 500/400/600 + ETF focus.

PSKY highest implied-volatility contracts

Type	Strike	Expiration	Volume	OI	IV	Bid	Ask
PUT	$10.00	Jan 21, 2028	5	125.9K	55.9%	$2.04	$2.90
PUT	$8.00	Jan 15, 2027	124	71.6K	60.2%	$0.86	$0.97
PUT	$12.00	Jan 15, 2027	0	58.3K	60.7%	$3.30	$3.50
CALL	$17.00	Jan 15, 2027	0	57.9K	63.2%	$0.17	$0.26

Top 4 contracts from the institutional-grade nightly options scan; ranked by iv within the broader S&P 500/400/600 + ETF universe.

Frequently asked PSKY probability analysis questions

What is the PSKY 30-day expected price range?: As of Jul 15, 2026, with PSKY at $9.21 and ATM IV at 63.5%, the implied 30-day one-standard-deviation range is approximately ±$1.68, or about $7.53 to $10.89. IV rank is subdued, so the priced distribution is tighter than the 1-year typical width.
What does PSKY risk-neutral density tell us?: Risk-neutral density is the probability distribution of future PSKY price implied by listed option prices. Extracted via Breeden-Litzenberger (twice-differentiating the call price function with respect to strike), it represents the pricing kernel rather than the real-world probability of outcomes. Persistent skew or fat-tail features in the density reflect how the market is pricing tail risk.
How does PSKY ATM IV translate to a probability range?: ATM IV is annualized; multiplying by sqrt(t/365) scales it to the chosen tenor. Under lognormal assumptions, the resulting standard deviation defines the ±1σ band that contains roughly 68% of outcomes, ±2σ for 95%. Empirical equity returns have fatter tails than log-normal, so the implied tail probabilities under-state realized tail frequency in stressed regimes.