Is HOG options pricing rich or cheap right now?

As of Jun 30, 2026, Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) ATM IV is 48.9% against 20-day realized volatility of 34.1%. IV rank is 61.4%. HOG options are pricing in more volatility than the stock has recently realized: a positive variance risk premium worth 14.8 vol points.

What is the HOG variance risk premium?

The variance risk premium is the persistent gap between implied and subsequently realized volatility. In equity markets it averages positive because option sellers demand compensation for bearing variance shocks. HOG is currently priced consistently with this premium, which is one input to whether short-vol or long-vol structures carry their typical edge.

What does HOG IV rank mean for strategy selection?

IV rank normalizes the current ATM IV to its 1-year range: 0% is the low, 100% is the high. HOG's current rank of 61.4% signals where current pricing sits in its own 1-year history. High-rank regimes typically favor premium-selling structures (credit spreads, condors, covered calls); low-rank regimes typically favor premium-buying or long-volatility structures.

Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) IV/HV History

Comparing implied volatility to historical (realized) volatility reveals whether options are priced rich or cheap relative to actual price movement. Persistent gaps can signal trading opportunities.

Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) operates in the Consumer Cyclical sector, specifically the Auto - Recreational Vehicles industry, with a market capitalization near $2.65B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 5,900 people, carrying a beta of 1.28 to the broader market. Harley-Davidson, Inc. Led by Arthur Francis Starrs, public since 1986-07-08.

Snapshot as of Jun 30, 2026.

Spot Price: $24.45
ATM IV: 48.9%
HV 20-Day: 34.1%
HV 60-Day: 42.5%
IV Rank: 61.4%
IV Percentile: 61.9%

As of Jun 30, 2026, Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) ATM implied volatility is 48.9%. 20-day realized volatility is 34.1%, producing an IV-HV spread of +14.8 vol points. Options are pricing in more volatility than the stock has recently delivered, the volatility risk premium. IV rank is 61.4%.

How HOG iv/hv history Data Feeds Strategy Selection

Strategy selection on Harley-Davidson, Inc. options does not derive from any single metric in isolation. The iv/hv history view above sits inside a broader read: ATM IV currently sits at 48.9% and dealer gamma exposure is positive, so dealer hedging is mechanically mean-reverting. Combine the iv/hv history data here with the volatility-skew surface, dealer-gamma exposure, max-pain level, and upcoming-events calendar to build a positioning thesis. Risk-defined structures (credit spreads, debit spreads, iron condors) are usually safer than naked positions while the regime is uncertain; the data on this page anchors the inputs but does not by itself constitute a trade thesis.

How to read the HOG IV vs HV chart

The dual-line chart above tracks ATM implied volatility (forward-looking, what the chain is pricing) against 20-day realized historical volatility (backward-looking, what actually happened). ATM IV currently prints at 48.9%, 61.4% IV rank, against 34.1% realized over the trailing 20 trading days. Implied is pricing above realized by 14.8 vol points, the typical variance-risk-premium positive state in which premium sellers earn the gap. Persistent IV-above-HV is the variance-risk-premium-positive state typical of equity markets; persistent IV-below-HV is rare and usually marks underpriced vol that often expands.

HOG IV/HV regimes and trade selection

HOG IV rank at 61.4% sits mid-range - no structural edge from rank alone. Strategy choice should follow event calendar and the dealer-positioning read.

Using HOG vol history alongside the term structure

The IV/HV gap on this page captures the level of premium; the term-structure slope on the volatility page captures its shape across expirations. Term structure is roughly flat at -0.010, no strong near vs far premium being priced. Pair the rank read with the slope read with the event calendar to choose the right tenor for the structure.

HOG IV/HV signal in volatility-cycle context

Equity-vol cycles tend to compress and expand on multi-month timeframes: a typical sequence runs low-IV-rank consolidation (months of flat tape, decaying premium) into a vol-expansion catalyst (earnings miss, macro shock, regime change) into elevated-IV-rank stress (premiums fat, dispersion high) back to mean-reverting compression. HOG's 61.4% IV rank places the ticker in the mid-range of its 1-year window - no strong cycle-position signal. The ratio of HV-20 (34.1%) to HV-60 (42.5%) gives a second cycle indicator: when 20-day exceeds 60-day, recent realization is running hotter than the trailing-quarter average - typically a sign that recent days have already started expanding vol regardless of where IV rank prints. Use the time series above to spot inflection points: meaningful IV/HV gap closures and openings tend to precede regime shifts by a few sessions.

Learn how implied vs realized volatility is reported and how to read the data →

Daily ATM implied volatility and 20-day realized (historical) volatility for HOG over the last ~41 trading days. The IV-HV gap measures the variance risk premium - when IV trades persistently above realized HV, premium-sellers earn the spread; when IV dips below HV, vol is structurally underpriced.

Daily values from end-of-day option_ticker_snapshots. Series sparse on illiquid tickers reflects gaps in the upstream end-of-day options data feed.

Most recent 15 trading days (descending). Older history appears in the chart above.

Date	ATM IV	HV 20d	HV 60d	IV Rank
Jun 30, 2026	48.9%	34.1%	42.5%	61.4%
Jun 29, 2026	48.9%	34.2%	42.7%	61.5%
Jun 26, 2026	44.4%	31.1%	41.9%	42.5%
Jun 25, 2026	44.3%	30.9%	42.6%	42.4%
Jun 24, 2026	44.8%	31.7%	42.6%	44.4%
Jun 23, 2026	44.6%	32.3%	42.5%	43.5%
Jun 22, 2026	45.7%	30.2%	42.6%	48.3%
Jun 18, 2026	39.6%	28.7%	41.9%	22.4%
Jun 17, 2026	40.1%	28.8%	42.6%	24.5%
Jun 16, 2026	38.0%	30.6%	42.3%	15.5%
Jun 15, 2026	39.0%	35.8%	42.2%	19.8%
Jun 12, 2026	37.9%	35.7%	42.5%	15.4%
Jun 11, 2026	39.8%	35.9%	43.1%	23.2%
Jun 10, 2026	42.0%	33.3%	42.7%	32.6%
Jun 9, 2026	42.1%	32.1%	42.3%	33.1%

Frequently asked HOG iv/hv history questions

Is HOG options pricing rich or cheap right now?: As of Jun 30, 2026, Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) ATM IV is 48.9% against 20-day realized volatility of 34.1%. IV rank is 61.4%. HOG options are pricing in more volatility than the stock has recently realized: a positive variance risk premium worth 14.8 vol points.
What is the HOG variance risk premium?: The variance risk premium is the persistent gap between implied and subsequently realized volatility. In equity markets it averages positive because option sellers demand compensation for bearing variance shocks. HOG is currently priced consistently with this premium, which is one input to whether short-vol or long-vol structures carry their typical edge.
What does HOG IV rank mean for strategy selection?: IV rank normalizes the current ATM IV to its 1-year range: 0% is the low, 100% is the high. HOG's current rank of 61.4% signals where current pricing sits in its own 1-year history. High-rank regimes typically favor premium-selling structures (credit spreads, condors, covered calls); low-rank regimes typically favor premium-buying or long-volatility structures.