Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) operates in the Consumer Cyclical sector, specifically the Auto - Recreational Vehicles industry, with a market capitalization near $2.65B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 5,900 people, carrying a beta of 1.28 to the broader market. Harley-Davidson, Inc. Led by Arthur Francis Starrs, public since 1986-07-08.
Snapshot as of Jun 30, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $24.45
- Expected Move
- 14.0%
- Implied High
- $27.87
- Implied Low
- $21.03
- Front DTE
- 31 days
As of Jun 30, 2026, Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) has an expected move of 14.01%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $21.03 to $27.87 from the current $24.45. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
HOG Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Harley-Davidson, Inc. pricing an expected move of 14.01% from $24.45, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
How to read the HOG implied-range chart
The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 14.01%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $21.03 to $27.87. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.
HOG expected move and event pricing
Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. HOG term-structure is in backwardation (slope -0.010), so near-dated tenors price in disproportionate vol - usually because of a known event in the front-month window.
Sizing HOG structures to the expected move
Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. HOG put/call volume ratio currently at 1.34 indicates protective put flow dominates - look for hedged-money positioning into the move. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for HOG derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $24.45 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2, 2026 | 2 | 45.0% | 3.3% | $25.26 | $23.64 |
| Jul 10, 2026 | 10 | 38.7% | 6.4% | $26.02 | $22.88 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 17 | 40.4% | 8.7% | $26.58 | $22.32 |
| Jul 24, 2026 | 24 | 43.5% | 11.2% | $27.18 | $21.72 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | 31 | 49.5% | 14.4% | $27.98 | $20.92 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | 38 | 48.5% | 15.6% | $28.28 | $20.62 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 52 | 47.5% | 17.9% | $28.83 | $20.07 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 143 | 46.7% | 29.2% | $31.60 | $17.30 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 199 | 45.4% | 33.5% | $32.65 | $16.25 |
| Feb 19, 2027 | 234 | 46.2% | 37.0% | $33.49 | $15.41 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 570 | 46.9% | 58.6% | $38.78 | $10.12 |
Frequently asked HOG expected move questions
- What is the current HOG expected move?
- As of Jun 30, 2026, Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) has an expected move of 14.01% over the next 31 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $21.03 to $27.87 from the current $24.45. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the HOG expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is HOG expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.