Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) operates in the Consumer Cyclical sector, specifically the Auto - Recreational Vehicles industry, with a market capitalization near $2.69B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 5,900 people, carrying a beta of 1.28 to the broader market. Harley-Davidson, Inc. Led by Arthur Francis Starrs, public since 1986-07-08.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $25.44
- Expected Move
- 11.7%
- Implied High
- $28.41
- Implied Low
- $22.47
- Front DTE
- 28 days
As of May 15, 2026, Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) has an expected move of 11.68%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $22.47 to $28.41 from the current $25.44. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
HOG Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Harley-Davidson, Inc. pricing an expected move of 11.68% from $25.44, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for HOG derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $25.44 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 22, 2026 | 7 | 36.5% | 5.1% | $26.73 | $24.15 |
| May 29, 2026 | 14 | 37.3% | 7.3% | $27.30 | $23.58 |
| Jun 5, 2026 | 21 | 39.3% | 9.4% | $27.84 | $23.04 |
| Jun 12, 2026 | 28 | 41.0% | 11.4% | $28.33 | $22.55 |
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 40.3% | 12.3% | $28.57 | $22.31 |
| Jun 26, 2026 | 42 | 39.5% | 13.4% | $28.85 | $22.03 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 40.4% | 16.8% | $29.71 | $21.17 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 98 | 44.5% | 23.1% | $31.31 | $19.57 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 189 | 47.0% | 33.8% | $34.04 | $16.84 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 245 | 45.4% | 37.2% | $34.90 | $15.98 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 616 | 46.8% | 60.8% | $40.91 | $9.97 |
Frequently asked HOG expected move questions
- What is the current HOG expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) has an expected move of 11.68% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $22.47 to $28.41 from the current $25.44. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the HOG expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is HOG expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.