What is the current FUTU expected move?

As of May 22, 2026, Futu Holdings Limited (FUTU) has an expected move of 22.22% over the next 27 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $69.45 to $109.13 from the current $89.29. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the FUTU expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is FUTU expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

Futu Holdings Limited (FUTU) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

Futu Holdings Limited (FUTU) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Financial - Capital Markets industry, with a market capitalization near $12.50B, listed on NASDAQ, employing roughly 3,343 people, carrying a beta of 0.51 to the broader market. Futu Holdings Limited provides digitalized securities brokerage and wealth management product distribution service in Hong Kong and internationally. Led by Hua Li, public since 2019-03-08.

Snapshot as of May 22, 2026.

Spot Price: $89.29
Expected Move: 22.2%
Implied High: $109.13
Implied Low: $69.45
Front DTE: 27 days

As of May 22, 2026, Futu Holdings Limited (FUTU) has an expected move of 22.22%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $69.45 to $109.13 from the current $89.29. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

FUTU Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With Futu Holdings Limited pricing an expected move of 22.22% from $89.29, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the FUTU implied-range chart

The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 22.22%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $69.45 to $109.13. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

FUTU expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. FUTU term-structure is in backwardation (slope -0.030), so near-dated tenors price in disproportionate vol - usually because of a known event in the front-month window. Combined with the 100.0% IV rank, the implied move is meaningfully wider than the typical FUTU trailing range, so even premium-selling structures need wide wings to absorb the elevated regime.

Sizing FUTU structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. FUTU put/call volume ratio currently at 2.04 indicates protective put flow dominates - look for hedged-money positioning into the move. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for FUTU derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $89.29 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
May 29, 2026	7	104.2%	14.4%	$102.17	$76.41
Jun 5, 2026	14	90.0%	17.6%	$105.03	$73.55
Jun 12, 2026	21	82.7%	19.8%	$107.00	$71.58
Jun 18, 2026	27	78.8%	21.4%	$108.43	$70.15
Jun 26, 2026	35	75.8%	23.5%	$110.25	$68.33
Jul 2, 2026	41	75.7%	25.4%	$111.94	$66.64
Jul 17, 2026	56	69.2%	27.1%	$113.49	$65.09
Aug 21, 2026	91	67.1%	33.5%	$119.21	$59.37
Sep 18, 2026	119	66.1%	37.7%	$122.99	$55.59
Nov 20, 2026	182	64.7%	45.7%	$130.08	$48.50
Jan 15, 2027	238	62.5%	50.5%	$134.35	$44.23
Jan 21, 2028	609	59.6%	77.0%	$158.03	$20.55

Frequently asked FUTU expected move questions

What is the current FUTU expected move?: As of May 22, 2026, Futu Holdings Limited (FUTU) has an expected move of 22.22% over the next 27 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $69.45 to $109.13 from the current $89.29. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the FUTU expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is FUTU expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.