What is the FND 30-day expected price range?

As of Oct 14, 2026, with FND at $44.13 and ATM IV at 52.3%, the implied 30-day one-standard-deviation range is approximately ±$6.62, or about $37.51 to $50.75. IV rank is subdued, so the priced distribution is tighter than the 1-year typical width.

What does FND risk-neutral density tell us?

Risk-neutral density is the probability distribution of future FND price implied by listed option prices. Extracted via Breeden-Litzenberger (twice-differentiating the call price function with respect to strike), it represents the pricing kernel rather than the real-world probability of outcomes. Persistent skew or fat-tail features in the density reflect how the market is pricing tail risk.

How does FND ATM IV translate to a probability range?

ATM IV is annualized; multiplying by sqrt(t/365) scales it to the chosen tenor. Under lognormal assumptions, the resulting standard deviation defines the ±1σ band that contains roughly 68% of outcomes, ±2σ for 95%. Empirical equity returns have fatter tails than log-normal, so the implied tail probabilities under-state realized tail frequency in stressed regimes.

Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. (FND) Probability Analysis

Probability analysis extracts the risk-neutral probability distribution implied by option prices. It shows the market-implied likelihood of the underlying reaching various price levels by expiration.

Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. (FND) operates in the Consumer Cyclical sector, specifically the Home Improvement industry, with a market capitalization near $4.71B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 12,096 people, carrying a beta of 1.60 to the broader market. Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. Led by Bradley S. Paulsen, public since 2017-04-27.

Snapshot as of Oct 14, 2026.

Spot Price: $44.13
ATM IV: 52.3%
IV Rank: 2.3%
IV Percentile: 40.9%
HV 20-Day: 28.8%
IV Skew 25Δ: 0.003

As of Oct 14, 2026, Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. (FND) at $44.13 has an ATM IV of 52.3%, implying a 30-day one-standard-deviation range of approximately ±$6.62. IV rank is 2.3% (subdued, distribution priced tighter than usual). IV percentile is 40.9%. The 25-delta skew is +0.003: roughly symmetric wings. Under lognormal assumptions roughly 68% of outcomes fall within ±1σ and 95% within ±2σ; risk-neutral probability analysis refines this by extracting the market-implied distribution directly from options prices, capturing the fat tails that real markets exhibit.

How FND probability analysis Data Feeds Strategy Selection

Strategy selection on Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. options does not derive from any single metric in isolation. The probability analysis view above sits inside a broader read: ATM IV currently sits at 52.3% and dealer gamma exposure is negative, so dealer hedging amplifies directional moves. Combine the probability analysis data here with the volatility-skew surface, dealer-gamma exposure, max-pain level, and upcoming-events calendar to build a positioning thesis. Risk-defined structures (credit spreads, debit spreads, iron condors) are usually safer than naked positions while the regime is uncertain; the data on this page anchors the inputs but does not by itself constitute a trade thesis.

How to read the FND probability distribution

The probability cone above is the option-market-implied distribution of where Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. spot could end up at expiration. It's derived from the implied-volatility surface via a risk-neutral pricing transformation, not from historical realized returns. With ATM IV at 52.3% and spot at $44.13, the 1σ band is approximately ±18.0% over a 30-day horizon. Recent realized HV-20 of 28.8% runs 23.5 vol points below the current implied, suggesting the chain is pricing more dispersion than the underlying has been delivering.

FND risk-neutral vs real-world probabilities

The probabilities derived from option prices reflect the market's risk-adjusted view, not the realized statistical distribution. Risk-neutral probabilities include the equity risk premium and skew preferences priced into options, so they tend to overstate tail probability and understate upside drift relative to actually-realized outcomes. For probability-of-touch calculations and assignment-risk modeling, risk-neutral is the right benchmark. For position-sizing your own conviction, blend with realized-volatility-based statistics from the HV columns.

Trading the FND distribution

Probability-driven strategies aim to capture mispricings between the implied distribution and your own probability assessment. Premium-selling structures (credit spreads, iron condors, cash-secured puts) profit when the implied distribution overprices tail probability relative to realized; premium-buying (debit spreads, long calls/puts, long straddles) profits in the reverse. With FND IV rank at 2.3%, the chain is pricing tighter tails than recent realized history; buyers get cheaper optionality but need a real catalyst to monetize. Always pair probability-driven strategy selection with a stop loss or wing-defined risk - the implied distribution is a snapshot, and regime shifts can invalidate it intraday.

Learn how risk-neutral density is reported and how to read the data →

Chart aggregates top-ranked contracts by strike from the institutional-grade nightly options scan. Sparse coverage on long-tail tickers reflects the scan's S&P 500/400/600 + ETF focus.

FND highest implied-volatility contracts

Type	Strike	Expiration	Volume	OI	IV	Bid	Ask
PUT	$50.00	Oct 16, 2026	0	139	956.8%	$4.90	$8.00
PUT	$45.00	Oct 16, 2026	10	162	758.0%	$1.10	$2.45

Top 2 contracts from the institutional-grade nightly options scan; ranked by iv within the broader S&P 500/400/600 + ETF universe.

Frequently asked FND probability analysis questions

What is the FND 30-day expected price range?: As of Oct 14, 2026, with FND at $44.13 and ATM IV at 52.3%, the implied 30-day one-standard-deviation range is approximately ±$6.62, or about $37.51 to $50.75. IV rank is subdued, so the priced distribution is tighter than the 1-year typical width.
What does FND risk-neutral density tell us?: Risk-neutral density is the probability distribution of future FND price implied by listed option prices. Extracted via Breeden-Litzenberger (twice-differentiating the call price function with respect to strike), it represents the pricing kernel rather than the real-world probability of outcomes. Persistent skew or fat-tail features in the density reflect how the market is pricing tail risk.
How does FND ATM IV translate to a probability range?: ATM IV is annualized; multiplying by sqrt(t/365) scales it to the chosen tenor. Under lognormal assumptions, the resulting standard deviation defines the ±1σ band that contains roughly 68% of outcomes, ±2σ for 95%. Empirical equity returns have fatter tails than log-normal, so the implied tail probabilities under-state realized tail frequency in stressed regimes.