What is the FND 30-day expected price range?

As of Jul 15, 2026, with FND at $56.35 and ATM IV at 60.5%, the implied 30-day one-standard-deviation range is approximately ±$9.77, or about $46.58 to $66.12.

What does FND risk-neutral density tell us?

Risk-neutral density is the probability distribution of future FND price implied by listed option prices. Extracted via Breeden-Litzenberger (twice-differentiating the call price function with respect to strike), it represents the pricing kernel rather than the real-world probability of outcomes. Persistent skew or fat-tail features in the density reflect how the market is pricing tail risk.

How does FND ATM IV translate to a probability range?

ATM IV is annualized; multiplying by sqrt(t/365) scales it to the chosen tenor. Under lognormal assumptions, the resulting standard deviation defines the ±1σ band that contains roughly 68% of outcomes, ±2σ for 95%. Empirical equity returns have fatter tails than log-normal, so the implied tail probabilities under-state realized tail frequency in stressed regimes.

Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. (FND) Probability Analysis

Probability analysis extracts the risk-neutral probability distribution implied by option prices. It shows the market-implied likelihood of the underlying reaching various price levels by expiration.

Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. (FND) operates in the Consumer Cyclical sector, specifically the Home Improvement industry, with a market capitalization near $6.10B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 13,723 people, carrying a beta of 1.58 to the broader market. Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. Led by Bradley S. Paulsen, public since 2017-04-27.

Snapshot as of Jul 15, 2026.

Spot Price: $56.35
ATM IV: 60.5%
IV Rank: 59.4%
IV Percentile: 82.1%
HV 20-Day: 65.8%
IV Skew 25Δ: 0.052

As of Jul 15, 2026, Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. (FND) at $56.35 has an ATM IV of 60.5%, implying a 30-day one-standard-deviation range of approximately ±$9.77. IV rank is 59.4% (near its 1-year median). IV percentile is 82.1%. The 25-delta skew is +0.052: upside tail priced richer than downside, biasing probability mass above spot. Under lognormal assumptions roughly 68% of outcomes fall within ±1σ and 95% within ±2σ; risk-neutral probability analysis refines this by extracting the market-implied distribution directly from options prices, capturing the fat tails that real markets exhibit.

How FND probability analysis Data Feeds Strategy Selection

Strategy selection on Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. options does not derive from any single metric in isolation. The probability analysis view above sits inside a broader read: ATM IV currently sits at 60.5% and dealer gamma exposure is positive, so dealer hedging is mechanically mean-reverting. Combine the probability analysis data here with the volatility-skew surface, dealer-gamma exposure, max-pain level, and upcoming-events calendar to build a positioning thesis. Risk-defined structures (credit spreads, debit spreads, iron condors) are usually safer than naked positions while the regime is uncertain; the data on this page anchors the inputs but does not by itself constitute a trade thesis.

How to read the FND probability distribution

The probability cone above is the option-market-implied distribution of where Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. spot could end up at expiration. It's derived from the implied-volatility surface via a risk-neutral pricing transformation, not from historical realized returns. With ATM IV at 60.5% and spot at $56.35, the 1σ band is approximately ±20.9% over a 30-day horizon. Recent realized HV-20 of 65.8% runs 5.3 vol points above current implied, an inverted regime where premium buyers are underpaying.

FND risk-neutral vs real-world probabilities

The probabilities derived from option prices reflect the market's risk-adjusted view, not the realized statistical distribution. Risk-neutral probabilities include the equity risk premium and skew preferences priced into options, so they tend to overstate tail probability and understate upside drift relative to actually-realized outcomes. For probability-of-touch calculations and assignment-risk modeling, risk-neutral is the right benchmark. For position-sizing your own conviction, blend with realized-volatility-based statistics from the HV columns.

Trading the FND distribution

Probability-driven strategies aim to capture mispricings between the implied distribution and your own probability assessment. Premium-selling structures (credit spreads, iron condors, cash-secured puts) profit when the implied distribution overprices tail probability relative to realized; premium-buying (debit spreads, long calls/puts, long straddles) profits in the reverse. Always pair probability-driven strategy selection with a stop loss or wing-defined risk - the implied distribution is a snapshot, and regime shifts can invalidate it intraday.

Learn how risk-neutral density is reported and how to read the data →

FND highest implied-volatility contracts

Type	Strike	Expiration	Volume	OI	IV	Bid	Ask
PUT	$42.50	Oct 16, 2026	0	26.7K	61.9%	$1.05	$2.15

Top 1 contracts from the institutional-grade nightly options scan; ranked by iv within the broader S&P 500/400/600 + ETF universe.

Frequently asked FND probability analysis questions

What is the FND 30-day expected price range?: As of Jul 15, 2026, with FND at $56.35 and ATM IV at 60.5%, the implied 30-day one-standard-deviation range is approximately ±$9.77, or about $46.58 to $66.12.
What does FND risk-neutral density tell us?: Risk-neutral density is the probability distribution of future FND price implied by listed option prices. Extracted via Breeden-Litzenberger (twice-differentiating the call price function with respect to strike), it represents the pricing kernel rather than the real-world probability of outcomes. Persistent skew or fat-tail features in the density reflect how the market is pricing tail risk.
How does FND ATM IV translate to a probability range?: ATM IV is annualized; multiplying by sqrt(t/365) scales it to the chosen tenor. Under lognormal assumptions, the resulting standard deviation defines the ±1σ band that contains roughly 68% of outcomes, ±2σ for 95%. Empirical equity returns have fatter tails than log-normal, so the implied tail probabilities under-state realized tail frequency in stressed regimes.