Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. (FND) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. (FND) operates in the Consumer Cyclical sector, specifically the Home Improvement industry, with a market capitalization near $4.93B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 10,413 people, carrying a beta of 1.63 to the broader market. Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. Led by Bradley S. Paulsen, public since 2017-04-27.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $43.45
- Expected Move
- 17.3%
- Implied High
- $50.99
- Implied Low
- $35.91
- Front DTE
- 34 days
As of May 15, 2026, Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. (FND) has an expected move of 17.34%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $35.91 to $50.99 from the current $43.45. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
FND Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. pricing an expected move of 17.34% from $43.45, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for FND derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $43.45 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 60.5% | 18.5% | $51.47 | $35.43 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 62.3% | 25.9% | $54.70 | $32.20 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 126 | 65.0% | 38.2% | $60.04 | $26.86 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 154 | 63.8% | 41.4% | $61.46 | $25.44 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 245 | 60.9% | 49.9% | $65.13 | $21.77 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 616 | 62.8% | 81.6% | $78.90 | $8.00 |
FND highest implied-volatility contracts
| Type | Strike | Expiration | Volume | OI | IV | Bid | Ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PUT | $47.50 | Jun 18, 2026 | 7 | 21.3K | 58.9% | $4.60 | $5.70 |
| PUT | $42.50 | Oct 16, 2026 | 2 | 26.7K | 63.8% | $5.60 | $6.00 |
| PUT | $42.50 | Oct 16, 2026 | 2 | 26.7K | 63.8% | $5.60 | $6.00 |
| PUT | $47.50 | Jun 18, 2026 | 7 | 21.3K | 58.9% | $4.60 | $5.70 |
Top 4 contracts from the ORATS-sourced nightly scan; ranked by iv within the broader S&P 500/400/600 + ETF universe.
Frequently asked FND expected move questions
- What is the current FND expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. (FND) has an expected move of 17.34% over the next 34 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $35.91 to $50.99 from the current $43.45. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the FND expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is FND expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.