What is the FCX 30-day expected price range?

As of Aug 28, 2026, with FCX at $76.48 and ATM IV at 46.8%, the implied 30-day one-standard-deviation range is approximately ±$10.27, or about $66.21 to $86.75.

What does FCX risk-neutral density tell us?

Risk-neutral density is the probability distribution of future FCX price implied by listed option prices. Extracted via Breeden-Litzenberger (twice-differentiating the call price function with respect to strike), it represents the pricing kernel rather than the real-world probability of outcomes. Persistent skew or fat-tail features in the density reflect how the market is pricing tail risk.

How does FCX ATM IV translate to a probability range?

ATM IV is annualized; multiplying by sqrt(t/365) scales it to the chosen tenor. Under lognormal assumptions, the resulting standard deviation defines the ±1σ band that contains roughly 68% of outcomes, ±2σ for 95%. Empirical equity returns have fatter tails than log-normal, so the implied tail probabilities under-state realized tail frequency in stressed regimes.

Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) Probability Analysis

Probability analysis extracts the risk-neutral probability distribution implied by option prices. It shows the market-implied likelihood of the underlying reaching various price levels by expiration.

Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) operates in the Basic Materials sector, specifically the Copper industry, with a market capitalization near $109.92B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 29,000 people, carrying a beta of 1.38 to the broader market. Freeport-McMoRan Inc. Led by Kathleen L. Quirk, public since 1995-07-10.

Snapshot as of Aug 28, 2026.

Spot Price: $76.48
ATM IV: 46.8%
IV Rank: 46.9%
IV Percentile: 43.3%
HV 20-Day: 50.8%
IV Skew 25Δ: -0.010

As of Aug 28, 2026, Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) at $76.48 has an ATM IV of 46.8%, implying a 30-day one-standard-deviation range of approximately ±$10.27. IV rank is 46.9% (near its 1-year median). IV percentile is 43.3%. The 25-delta skew is -0.010: roughly symmetric wings. Under lognormal assumptions roughly 68% of outcomes fall within ±1σ and 95% within ±2σ; risk-neutral probability analysis refines this by extracting the market-implied distribution directly from options prices, capturing the fat tails that real markets exhibit.

How FCX probability analysis Data Feeds Strategy Selection

Strategy selection on Freeport-McMoRan Inc. options does not derive from any single metric in isolation. The probability analysis view above sits inside a broader read: ATM IV currently sits at 46.8% and dealer gamma exposure is positive, so dealer hedging is mechanically mean-reverting. Combine the probability analysis data here with the volatility-skew surface, dealer-gamma exposure, max-pain level, and upcoming-events calendar to build a positioning thesis. Risk-defined structures (credit spreads, debit spreads, iron condors) are usually safer than naked positions while the regime is uncertain; the data on this page anchors the inputs but does not by itself constitute a trade thesis.

How to read the FCX probability distribution

The probability cone above is the option-market-implied distribution of where Freeport-McMoRan Inc. spot could end up at expiration. It's derived from the implied-volatility surface via a risk-neutral pricing transformation, not from historical realized returns. With ATM IV at 46.8% and spot at $76.48, the 1σ band is approximately ±16.2% over a 30-day horizon. Recent realized HV-20 of 50.8% runs 3.9 vol points above current implied, an inverted regime where premium buyers are underpaying.

FCX risk-neutral vs real-world probabilities

The probabilities derived from option prices reflect the market's risk-adjusted view, not the realized statistical distribution. Risk-neutral probabilities include the equity risk premium and skew preferences priced into options, so they tend to overstate tail probability and understate upside drift relative to actually-realized outcomes. For probability-of-touch calculations and assignment-risk modeling, risk-neutral is the right benchmark. For position-sizing your own conviction, blend with realized-volatility-based statistics from the HV columns.

Trading the FCX distribution

Probability-driven strategies aim to capture mispricings between the implied distribution and your own probability assessment. Premium-selling structures (credit spreads, iron condors, cash-secured puts) profit when the implied distribution overprices tail probability relative to realized; premium-buying (debit spreads, long calls/puts, long straddles) profits in the reverse. Always pair probability-driven strategy selection with a stop loss or wing-defined risk - the implied distribution is a snapshot, and regime shifts can invalidate it intraday.

Learn how risk-neutral density is reported and how to read the data →

Chart aggregates top-ranked contracts by strike from the institutional-grade nightly options scan. Sparse coverage on long-tail tickers reflects the scan's S&P 500/400/600 + ETF focus.

FCX highest implied-volatility contracts

Type	Strike	Expiration	Volume	OI	IV	Bid	Ask
PUT	$77.00	Sep 4, 2026	3.5K	170	45.9%	$2.09	$2.47
PUT	$76.00	Sep 4, 2026	3.2K	153	45.4%	$1.59	$1.94

Top 2 contracts from the institutional-grade nightly options scan; ranked by iv within the broader S&P 500/400/600 + ETF universe.

Frequently asked FCX probability analysis questions

What is the FCX 30-day expected price range?: As of Aug 28, 2026, with FCX at $76.48 and ATM IV at 46.8%, the implied 30-day one-standard-deviation range is approximately ±$10.27, or about $66.21 to $86.75.
What does FCX risk-neutral density tell us?: Risk-neutral density is the probability distribution of future FCX price implied by listed option prices. Extracted via Breeden-Litzenberger (twice-differentiating the call price function with respect to strike), it represents the pricing kernel rather than the real-world probability of outcomes. Persistent skew or fat-tail features in the density reflect how the market is pricing tail risk.
How does FCX ATM IV translate to a probability range?: ATM IV is annualized; multiplying by sqrt(t/365) scales it to the chosen tenor. Under lognormal assumptions, the resulting standard deviation defines the ±1σ band that contains roughly 68% of outcomes, ±2σ for 95%. Empirical equity returns have fatter tails than log-normal, so the implied tail probabilities under-state realized tail frequency in stressed regimes.