What is the current FCX expected move?

As of Jun 29, 2026, Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) has an expected move of 16.56% over the next 32 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $51.51 to $71.95 from the current $61.73. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the FCX expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is FCX expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) operates in the Basic Materials sector, specifically the Copper industry, with a market capitalization near $89.60B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 28,500 people, carrying a beta of 1.36 to the broader market. Freeport-McMoRan Inc. Led by Kathleen Lynne Quirk, public since 1995-07-10.

Snapshot as of Jun 29, 2026.

Spot Price: $61.73
Expected Move: 16.6%
Implied High: $71.95
Implied Low: $51.51
Front DTE: 32 days

As of Jun 29, 2026, Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) has an expected move of 16.56%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $51.51 to $71.95 from the current $61.73. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

FCX Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With Freeport-McMoRan Inc. pricing an expected move of 16.56% from $61.73, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the FCX implied-range chart

The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 16.56%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $51.51 to $71.95. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

FCX expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. FCX term-structure is in backwardation (slope -0.012), so near-dated tenors price in disproportionate vol - usually because of a known event in the front-month window. Combined with the 86.4% IV rank, the implied move is meaningfully wider than the typical FCX trailing range, so even premium-selling structures need wide wings to absorb the elevated regime.

Sizing FCX structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. FCX put/call volume ratio currently at 0.45 indicates speculative call flow dominates - look for upside-skewed sentiment. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for FCX derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $61.73 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Jul 2, 2026	3	65.3%	5.9%	$65.38	$58.08
Jul 10, 2026	11	56.7%	9.8%	$67.81	$55.65
Jul 17, 2026	18	55.7%	12.4%	$69.37	$54.09
Jul 24, 2026	25	56.7%	14.8%	$70.89	$52.57
Jul 31, 2026	32	58.1%	17.2%	$72.35	$51.11
Aug 7, 2026	39	56.9%	18.6%	$73.21	$50.25
Aug 21, 2026	53	55.0%	21.0%	$74.67	$48.79
Sep 18, 2026	81	54.0%	25.4%	$77.43	$46.03
Nov 20, 2026	144	53.4%	33.5%	$82.43	$41.03
Dec 18, 2026	172	52.6%	36.1%	$84.02	$39.44
Jan 15, 2027	200	53.2%	39.4%	$86.04	$37.42
Feb 19, 2027	235	53.3%	42.8%	$88.13	$35.33
Mar 19, 2027	263	52.7%	44.7%	$89.34	$34.12
Jun 17, 2027	353	52.9%	52.0%	$93.84	$29.62
Jan 21, 2028	571	52.9%	66.2%	$102.57	$20.89
Dec 15, 2028	900	54.3%	85.3%	$114.36	$9.10

Frequently asked FCX expected move questions

What is the current FCX expected move?: As of Jun 29, 2026, Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) has an expected move of 16.56% over the next 32 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $51.51 to $71.95 from the current $61.73. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the FCX expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is FCX expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.