Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) operates in the Basic Materials sector, specifically the Copper industry, with a market capitalization near $99.52B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 29,000 people, carrying a beta of 1.38 to the broader market. Freeport-McMoRan Inc. Led by Kathleen Lynne Quirk, public since 1995-07-10.
Snapshot as of Aug 14, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $66.56
- Expected Move
- 12.6%
- Implied High
- $74.97
- Implied Low
- $58.15
- Front DTE
- 28 days
As of Aug 14, 2026, Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) has an expected move of 12.63%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $58.15 to $74.97 from the current $66.56. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
FCX Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Freeport-McMoRan Inc. pricing an expected move of 12.63% from $66.56, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
How to read the FCX implied-range chart
The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 12.63%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $58.15 to $74.97. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.
FCX expected move and event pricing
Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. FCX term-structure is in backwardation (slope -0.001), so near-dated tenors price in disproportionate vol - usually because of a known event in the front-month window.
Sizing FCX structures to the expected move
Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. FCX put/call volume ratio currently at 0.85 indicates balanced flow without strong directional skew. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for FCX derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $66.56 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | 7 | 42.5% | 5.9% | $70.48 | $62.64 |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 14 | 44.2% | 8.7% | $72.32 | $60.80 |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 21 | 44.3% | 10.6% | $73.63 | $59.49 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 28 | 44.1% | 12.2% | $74.69 | $58.43 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 35 | 44.0% | 13.6% | $75.63 | $57.49 |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 42 | 46.3% | 15.7% | $77.01 | $56.11 |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 49 | 45.9% | 16.8% | $77.75 | $55.37 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 63 | 45.4% | 18.9% | $79.11 | $54.01 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 98 | 47.2% | 24.5% | $82.84 | $50.28 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 126 | 47.6% | 28.0% | $85.17 | $47.95 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 154 | 47.7% | 31.0% | $87.18 | $45.94 |
| Feb 19, 2027 | 189 | 48.6% | 35.0% | $89.84 | $43.28 |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 217 | 48.8% | 37.6% | $91.60 | $41.52 |
| Jun 17, 2027 | 307 | 49.0% | 44.9% | $96.47 | $36.65 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 525 | 48.8% | 58.5% | $105.52 | $27.60 |
| Dec 15, 2028 | 854 | 49.5% | 75.7% | $116.96 | $16.16 |
Frequently asked FCX expected move questions
- What is the current FCX expected move?
- As of Aug 14, 2026, Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) has an expected move of 12.63% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $58.15 to $74.97 from the current $66.56. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the FCX expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is FCX expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.