Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) operates in the Basic Materials sector, specifically the Copper industry, with a market capitalization near $96.55B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 28,500 people, carrying a beta of 1.32 to the broader market. Freeport-McMoRan Inc. Led by Kathleen Lynne Quirk, public since 1995-07-10.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $63.17
- Expected Move
- 14.7%
- Implied High
- $72.45
- Implied Low
- $53.89
- Front DTE
- 28 days
As of May 15, 2026, Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) has an expected move of 14.69%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $53.89 to $72.45 from the current $63.17. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
FCX Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Freeport-McMoRan Inc. pricing an expected move of 14.69% from $63.17, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for FCX derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $63.17 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 22, 2026 | 7 | 51.5% | 7.1% | $67.68 | $58.66 |
| May 29, 2026 | 14 | 50.6% | 9.9% | $69.43 | $56.91 |
| Jun 5, 2026 | 21 | 52.7% | 12.6% | $71.16 | $55.18 |
| Jun 12, 2026 | 28 | 51.9% | 14.4% | $72.25 | $54.09 |
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 50.1% | 15.3% | $72.83 | $53.51 |
| Jun 26, 2026 | 42 | 50.8% | 17.2% | $74.06 | $52.28 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 49.7% | 20.6% | $76.21 | $50.13 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 98 | 51.1% | 26.5% | $79.90 | $46.44 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 126 | 50.7% | 29.8% | $81.99 | $44.35 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 189 | 50.2% | 36.1% | $85.99 | $40.35 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 217 | 50.1% | 38.6% | $87.57 | $38.77 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 245 | 50.0% | 41.0% | $89.05 | $37.29 |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 308 | 50.1% | 46.0% | $92.24 | $34.10 |
| Jun 17, 2027 | 398 | 50.3% | 52.5% | $96.35 | $29.99 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 616 | 49.5% | 64.3% | $103.79 | $22.55 |
FCX highest implied-volatility contracts
| Type | Strike | Expiration | Volume | OI | IV | Bid | Ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PUT | $65.00 | May 29, 2026 | 1.9K | 115 | 50.9% | $3.30 | $3.55 |
Top 1 contracts from the ORATS-sourced nightly scan; ranked by iv within the broader S&P 500/400/600 + ETF universe.
Frequently asked FCX expected move questions
- What is the current FCX expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) has an expected move of 14.69% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $53.89 to $72.45 from the current $63.17. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the FCX expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is FCX expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.