What is the current DE expected move?

As of Jun 30, 2026, Deere & Company (DE) has an expected move of 9.38% over the next 31 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $573.30 to $691.94 from the current $632.62. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the DE expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is DE expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

Deere & Company (DE) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

Deere & Company (DE) operates in the Industrials sector, specifically the Agricultural - Machinery industry, with a market capitalization near $165.54B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 73,100 people, carrying a beta of 0.93 to the broader market. Deere & Company is a global manufacturer and distributor of a wide range of equipment. Led by John C. May, public since 1972-06-01.

Snapshot as of Jun 30, 2026.

Spot Price: $632.62
Expected Move: 9.4%
Implied High: $691.94
Implied Low: $573.30
Front DTE: 31 days

As of Jun 30, 2026, Deere & Company (DE) has an expected move of 9.38%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $573.30 to $691.94 from the current $632.62. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

DE Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With Deere & Company pricing an expected move of 9.38% from $632.62, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the DE implied-range chart

The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 9.38%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $573.30 to $691.94. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

DE expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. DE term-structure is in backwardation (slope -0.012), so near-dated tenors price in disproportionate vol - usually because of a known event in the front-month window.

Sizing DE structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. DE put/call volume ratio currently at 0.52 indicates speculative call flow dominates - look for upside-skewed sentiment. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for DE derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $632.62 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Jul 2, 2026	2	39.0%	2.9%	$650.88	$614.36
Jul 10, 2026	10	31.7%	5.2%	$665.81	$599.43
Jul 17, 2026	17	32.1%	6.9%	$676.45	$588.79
Jul 24, 2026	24	32.0%	8.2%	$684.53	$580.71
Jul 31, 2026	31	32.8%	9.6%	$693.09	$572.15
Aug 7, 2026	38	31.6%	10.2%	$697.12	$568.12
Aug 21, 2026	52	35.1%	13.2%	$716.43	$548.81
Sep 18, 2026	80	33.9%	15.9%	$733.02	$532.22
Dec 18, 2026	171	33.9%	23.2%	$779.41	$485.83
Jan 15, 2027	199	33.4%	24.7%	$788.64	$476.60
Feb 19, 2027	234	33.3%	26.7%	$801.29	$463.95
Mar 19, 2027	262	33.5%	28.4%	$812.17	$453.07
Jun 17, 2027	352	34.0%	33.4%	$843.85	$421.39
Dec 17, 2027	535	34.3%	41.5%	$895.32	$369.92
Jan 21, 2028	570	34.1%	42.6%	$902.20	$363.04

Frequently asked DE expected move questions

What is the current DE expected move?: As of Jun 30, 2026, Deere & Company (DE) has an expected move of 9.38% over the next 31 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $573.30 to $691.94 from the current $632.62. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the DE expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is DE expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.