What is the CW 30-day expected price range?

As of Jul 15, 2026, with CW at $750.51 and ATM IV at 41.9%, the implied 30-day one-standard-deviation range is approximately ±$90.15, or about $660.36 to $840.66.

What does CW risk-neutral density tell us?

Risk-neutral density is the probability distribution of future CW price implied by listed option prices. Extracted via Breeden-Litzenberger (twice-differentiating the call price function with respect to strike), it represents the pricing kernel rather than the real-world probability of outcomes. Persistent skew or fat-tail features in the density reflect how the market is pricing tail risk.

How does CW ATM IV translate to a probability range?

ATM IV is annualized; multiplying by sqrt(t/365) scales it to the chosen tenor. Under lognormal assumptions, the resulting standard deviation defines the ±1σ band that contains roughly 68% of outcomes, ±2σ for 95%. Empirical equity returns have fatter tails than log-normal, so the implied tail probabilities under-state realized tail frequency in stressed regimes.

Curtiss-Wright Corporation (CW) Probability Analysis

Probability analysis extracts the risk-neutral probability distribution implied by option prices. It shows the market-implied likelihood of the underlying reaching various price levels by expiration.

Curtiss-Wright Corporation (CW) operates in the Industrials sector, specifically the Aerospace & Defense industry, with a market capitalization near $27.77B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 9,100 people, carrying a beta of 0.86 to the broader market. Curtiss-Wright Corporation (CW), along with its affiliated entities, delivers highly engineered products, comprehensive solutions, and a variety of services to a global client base across the aerospace, defense, general industrial, and power generation sectors. Led by Lynn Bamford, public since 1980-03-17.

Snapshot as of Jul 15, 2026.

Spot Price: $750.51
ATM IV: 41.9%
IV Rank: 56.8%
IV Percentile: 77.8%
HV 20-Day: 29.2%
IV Skew 25Δ: 0.086

As of Jul 15, 2026, Curtiss-Wright Corporation (CW) at $750.51 has an ATM IV of 41.9%, implying a 30-day one-standard-deviation range of approximately ±$90.15. IV rank is 56.8% (near its 1-year median). IV percentile is 77.8%. The 25-delta skew is +0.086: upside tail priced richer than downside, biasing probability mass above spot. Under lognormal assumptions roughly 68% of outcomes fall within ±1σ and 95% within ±2σ; risk-neutral probability analysis refines this by extracting the market-implied distribution directly from options prices, capturing the fat tails that real markets exhibit.

How CW probability analysis Data Feeds Strategy Selection

Strategy selection on Curtiss-Wright Corporation options does not derive from any single metric in isolation. The probability analysis view above sits inside a broader read: ATM IV currently sits at 41.9% and dealer gamma exposure is negative, so dealer hedging amplifies directional moves. Combine the probability analysis data here with the volatility-skew surface, dealer-gamma exposure, max-pain level, and upcoming-events calendar to build a positioning thesis. Risk-defined structures (credit spreads, debit spreads, iron condors) are usually safer than naked positions while the regime is uncertain; the data on this page anchors the inputs but does not by itself constitute a trade thesis.

How to read the CW probability distribution

The probability cone above is the option-market-implied distribution of where Curtiss-Wright Corporation spot could end up at expiration. It's derived from the implied-volatility surface via a risk-neutral pricing transformation, not from historical realized returns. With ATM IV at 41.9% and spot at $750.51, the 1σ band is approximately ±14.5% over a 30-day horizon. Recent realized HV-20 of 29.2% runs 12.7 vol points below the current implied, suggesting the chain is pricing more dispersion than the underlying has been delivering.

CW risk-neutral vs real-world probabilities

The probabilities derived from option prices reflect the market's risk-adjusted view, not the realized statistical distribution. Risk-neutral probabilities include the equity risk premium and skew preferences priced into options, so they tend to overstate tail probability and understate upside drift relative to actually-realized outcomes. For probability-of-touch calculations and assignment-risk modeling, risk-neutral is the right benchmark. For position-sizing your own conviction, blend with realized-volatility-based statistics from the HV columns.

Trading the CW distribution

Probability-driven strategies aim to capture mispricings between the implied distribution and your own probability assessment. Premium-selling structures (credit spreads, iron condors, cash-secured puts) profit when the implied distribution overprices tail probability relative to realized; premium-buying (debit spreads, long calls/puts, long straddles) profits in the reverse. Always pair probability-driven strategy selection with a stop loss or wing-defined risk - the implied distribution is a snapshot, and regime shifts can invalidate it intraday.

Learn how risk-neutral density is reported and how to read the data →

Frequently asked CW probability analysis questions

What is the CW 30-day expected price range?: As of Jul 15, 2026, with CW at $750.51 and ATM IV at 41.9%, the implied 30-day one-standard-deviation range is approximately ±$90.15, or about $660.36 to $840.66.
What does CW risk-neutral density tell us?: Risk-neutral density is the probability distribution of future CW price implied by listed option prices. Extracted via Breeden-Litzenberger (twice-differentiating the call price function with respect to strike), it represents the pricing kernel rather than the real-world probability of outcomes. Persistent skew or fat-tail features in the density reflect how the market is pricing tail risk.
How does CW ATM IV translate to a probability range?: ATM IV is annualized; multiplying by sqrt(t/365) scales it to the chosen tenor. Under lognormal assumptions, the resulting standard deviation defines the ±1σ band that contains roughly 68% of outcomes, ±2σ for 95%. Empirical equity returns have fatter tails than log-normal, so the implied tail probabilities under-state realized tail frequency in stressed regimes.