What is the current CW expected move?

As of Oct 13, 2026, Curtiss-Wright Corporation (CW) has an expected move of 13.68% over the next 38 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $434.86 to $572.64 from the current $503.75. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the CW expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is CW expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

Curtiss-Wright Corporation (CW) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

Curtiss-Wright Corporation (CW) operates in the Industrials sector, specifically the Aerospace & Defense industry, with a market capitalization near $18.55B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 9,100 people, carrying a beta of 0.88 to the broader market. Curtiss-Wright Corporation (CW), along with its affiliated entities, delivers highly engineered products, comprehensive solutions, and a variety of services to a global client base across the aerospace, defense, general industrial, and power generation sectors. Led by Lynn Bamford, public since 1980-03-17.

Snapshot as of Oct 13, 2026.

Spot Price: $503.75
Expected Move: 13.7%
Implied High: $572.64
Implied Low: $434.86
Front DTE: 38 days

As of Oct 13, 2026, Curtiss-Wright Corporation (CW) has an expected move of 13.68%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $434.86 to $572.64 from the current $503.75. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

CW Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With Curtiss-Wright Corporation pricing an expected move of 13.68% from $503.75, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the CW implied-range chart

The shaded range below shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 13.68%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $434.86 to $572.64. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

CW expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. CW term-structure is in contango (slope 0.002), so longer-dated tenors price in proportionally more vol than √time scaling alone would suggest - typically because long-dated cycles include uncertain macro states. Combined with the 77.8% IV rank, the implied move is meaningfully wider than the typical CW trailing range, so even premium-selling structures need wide wings to absorb the elevated regime.

Sizing CW structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. CW put/call volume ratio currently at 0.95 indicates balanced flow without strong directional skew. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for CW derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $503.75 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Oct 16, 2026	3	47.7%	4.3%	$525.53	$481.97
Nov 20, 2026	38	38.5%	12.4%	$566.33	$441.17
Dec 18, 2026	66	38.7%	16.5%	$586.65	$420.85
Mar 19, 2027	157	38.7%	25.4%	$631.61	$375.89
Dec 17, 2027	430	39.4%	42.8%	$719.18	$288.32

Frequently asked CW expected move questions

What is the current CW expected move?: As of Oct 13, 2026, Curtiss-Wright Corporation (CW) has an expected move of 13.68% over the next 38 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $434.86 to $572.64 from the current $503.75. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the CW expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is CW expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.