Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF) Probability Analysis
Probability analysis extracts the risk-neutral probability distribution implied by option prices. It shows the market-implied likelihood of the underlying reaching various price levels by expiration.
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF) operates in the Basic Materials sector, specifically the Steel industry, with a market capitalization near $7.34B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 25,000 people, carrying a beta of 2.09 to the broader market. Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. Led by C. Lourenco Goncalves, public since 1987-11-05.
Snapshot as of Oct 13, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $12.88
- ATM IV
- 72.2%
- IV Rank
- 60.1%
- IV Percentile
- 72.2%
- HV 20-Day
- 62.2%
- IV Skew 25Δ
- -0.039
As of Oct 13, 2026, Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF) at $12.88 has an ATM IV of 72.2%, implying a 30-day one-standard-deviation range of approximately ±$2.66. IV rank is 60.1% (near its 1-year median). IV percentile is 72.2%. The 25-delta skew is -0.039: downside tail priced richer than upside, biasing probability mass below spot. Under lognormal assumptions roughly 68% of outcomes fall within ±1σ and 95% within ±2σ; risk-neutral probability analysis refines this by extracting the market-implied distribution directly from options prices, capturing the fat tails that real markets exhibit.
How CLF probability analysis Data Feeds Strategy Selection
Strategy selection on Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. options does not derive from any single metric in isolation. The probability analysis view above sits inside a broader read: ATM IV currently sits at 72.2% and dealer gamma exposure is positive, so dealer hedging is mechanically mean-reverting. Combine the probability analysis data here with the volatility-skew surface, dealer-gamma exposure, max-pain level, and upcoming-events calendar to build a positioning thesis. Risk-defined structures (credit spreads, debit spreads, iron condors) are usually safer than naked positions while the regime is uncertain; the data on this page anchors the inputs but does not by itself constitute a trade thesis.
How to read the CLF probability distribution
The probability cone above is the option-market-implied distribution of where Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. spot could end up at expiration. It's derived from the implied-volatility surface via a risk-neutral pricing transformation, not from historical realized returns. With ATM IV at 72.2% and spot at $12.88, the 1σ band is approximately ±24.9% over a 30-day horizon. Recent realized HV-20 of 62.2% runs 10.0 vol points below the current implied, suggesting the chain is pricing more dispersion than the underlying has been delivering.
CLF risk-neutral vs real-world probabilities
The probabilities derived from option prices reflect the market's risk-adjusted view, not the realized statistical distribution. Risk-neutral probabilities include the equity risk premium and skew preferences priced into options, so they tend to overstate tail probability and understate upside drift relative to actually-realized outcomes. CLF's put-skewed 25-delta surface (-0.039) means downside risk-neutral probabilities are higher than upside - the empirical bias is well-documented. For probability-of-touch calculations and assignment-risk modeling, risk-neutral is the right benchmark. For position-sizing your own conviction, blend with realized-volatility-based statistics from the HV columns.
Trading the CLF distribution
Probability-driven strategies aim to capture mispricings between the implied distribution and your own probability assessment. Premium-selling structures (credit spreads, iron condors, cash-secured puts) profit when the implied distribution overprices tail probability relative to realized; premium-buying (debit spreads, long calls/puts, long straddles) profits in the reverse. Always pair probability-driven strategy selection with a stop loss or wing-defined risk - the implied distribution is a snapshot, and regime shifts can invalidate it intraday.
Learn how risk-neutral density is reported and how to read the data →
CLF highest implied-volatility contracts
| Type | Strike | Expiration | Volume | OI | IV | Bid | Ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PUT | $10.00 | Jan 21, 2028 | 23.2K | 2.0K | 65.3% | $1.75 | $1.86 |
| PUT | $10.00 | Jan 21, 2028 | 23.2K | 2.0K | 65.3% | $1.75 | $1.86 |
| PUT | $8.00 | Mar 19, 2027 | 15.1K | 15.9K | 64.2% | $0.26 | $0.29 |
| CALL | $13.00 | Dec 18, 2026 | 165 | 55.4K | 64.7% | $1.38 | $1.43 |
| PUT | $8.00 | Jun 17, 2027 | 1 | 34.5K | 64.0% | $0.47 | $0.54 |
| PUT | $5.00 | Dec 17, 2027 | 2.0K | 1.8K | 68.2% | $0.02 | $0.34 |
| PUT | $12.00 | Oct 23, 2026 | 1.7K | 971 | 89.3% | $0.31 | $0.41 |
| CALL | $13.00 | Oct 16, 2026 | 936 | 18.4K | 69.3% | $0.25 | $0.29 |
| PUT | $12.00 | Oct 23, 2026 | 1.7K | 971 | 89.3% | $0.31 | $0.41 |
| PUT | $14.00 | Oct 16, 2026 | 1.6K | 3.4K | 74.0% | $1.09 | $1.39 |
Top 10 contracts from the institutional-grade nightly options scan; ranked by iv within the broader S&P 500/400/600 + ETF universe.
Frequently asked CLF probability analysis questions
- What is the CLF 30-day expected price range?
- As of Oct 13, 2026, with CLF at $12.88 and ATM IV at 72.2%, the implied 30-day one-standard-deviation range is approximately ±$2.66, or about $10.22 to $15.54.
- What does CLF risk-neutral density tell us?
- Risk-neutral density is the probability distribution of future CLF price implied by listed option prices. Extracted via Breeden-Litzenberger (twice-differentiating the call price function with respect to strike), it represents the pricing kernel rather than the real-world probability of outcomes. Persistent skew or fat-tail features in the density reflect how the market is pricing tail risk.
- How does CLF ATM IV translate to a probability range?
- ATM IV is annualized; multiplying by sqrt(t/365) scales it to the chosen tenor. Under lognormal assumptions, the resulting standard deviation defines the ±1σ band that contains roughly 68% of outcomes, ±2σ for 95%. Empirical equity returns have fatter tails than log-normal, so the implied tail probabilities under-state realized tail frequency in stressed regimes.