Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF) Probability Analysis

Probability analysis extracts the risk-neutral probability distribution implied by option prices. It shows the market-implied likelihood of the underlying reaching various price levels by expiration.

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF) operates in the Basic Materials sector, specifically the Steel industry, with a market capitalization near $5.62B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 25,000 people, carrying a beta of 2.13 to the broader market. Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. Led by C. Lourenco Goncalves, public since 1987-11-05.

Snapshot as of Jul 15, 2026.

Spot Price

$9.86

ATM IV

82.0%

IV Rank

91.7%

IV Percentile

97.2%

HV 20-Day

57.2%

IV Skew 25Δ

0.010

As of Jul 15, 2026, Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF) at $9.86 has an ATM IV of 82.0%, implying a 30-day one-standard-deviation range of approximately ±$2.32. IV rank is 91.7% (elevated, distribution priced wider than typical). IV percentile is 97.2%. The 25-delta skew is +0.010: roughly symmetric wings. Under lognormal assumptions roughly 68% of outcomes fall within ±1σ and 95% within ±2σ; risk-neutral probability analysis refines this by extracting the market-implied distribution directly from options prices, capturing the fat tails that real markets exhibit.

How CLF probability analysis Data Feeds Strategy Selection

Strategy selection on Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. options does not derive from any single metric in isolation. The probability analysis view above sits inside a broader read: ATM IV currently sits at 82.0% and dealer gamma exposure is positive, so dealer hedging is mechanically mean-reverting. Combine the probability analysis data here with the volatility-skew surface, dealer-gamma exposure, max-pain level, and upcoming-events calendar to build a positioning thesis. Risk-defined structures (credit spreads, debit spreads, iron condors) are usually safer than naked positions while the regime is uncertain; the data on this page anchors the inputs but does not by itself constitute a trade thesis.

How to read the CLF probability distribution

The probability cone above is the option-market-implied distribution of where Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. spot could end up at expiration. It's derived from the implied-volatility surface via a risk-neutral pricing transformation, not from historical realized returns. With ATM IV at 82.0% and spot at $9.86, the 1σ band is approximately ±28.3% over a 30-day horizon. Recent realized HV-20 of 57.2% runs 24.8 vol points below the current implied, suggesting the chain is pricing more dispersion than the underlying has been delivering.

CLF risk-neutral vs real-world probabilities

The probabilities derived from option prices reflect the market's risk-adjusted view, not the realized statistical distribution. Risk-neutral probabilities include the equity risk premium and skew preferences priced into options, so they tend to overstate tail probability and understate upside drift relative to actually-realized outcomes. For probability-of-touch calculations and assignment-risk modeling, risk-neutral is the right benchmark. For position-sizing your own conviction, blend with realized-volatility-based statistics from the HV columns.

Trading the CLF distribution

Probability-driven strategies aim to capture mispricings between the implied distribution and your own probability assessment. Premium-selling structures (credit spreads, iron condors, cash-secured puts) profit when the implied distribution overprices tail probability relative to realized; premium-buying (debit spreads, long calls/puts, long straddles) profits in the reverse. With CLF IV rank at 91.7%, the chain is pricing fatter tails than recent realized history; sellers earn the gap on average. Always pair probability-driven strategy selection with a stop loss or wing-defined risk - the implied distribution is a snapshot, and regime shifts can invalidate it intraday.

Learn how risk-neutral density is reported and how to read the data →

CLF highest implied-volatility contracts

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Frequently asked CLF probability analysis questions

What is the CLF 30-day expected price range?

As of Jul 15, 2026, with CLF at $9.86 and ATM IV at 82.0%, the implied 30-day one-standard-deviation range is approximately ±$2.32, or about $7.54 to $12.18. IV rank is elevated, so the priced distribution is wider than the 1-year typical width.

What does CLF risk-neutral density tell us?

Risk-neutral density is the probability distribution of future CLF price implied by listed option prices. Extracted via Breeden-Litzenberger (twice-differentiating the call price function with respect to strike), it represents the pricing kernel rather than the real-world probability of outcomes. Persistent skew or fat-tail features in the density reflect how the market is pricing tail risk.

How does CLF ATM IV translate to a probability range?

ATM IV is annualized; multiplying by sqrt(t/365) scales it to the chosen tenor. Under lognormal assumptions, the resulting standard deviation defines the ±1σ band that contains roughly 68% of outcomes, ±2σ for 95%. Empirical equity returns have fatter tails than log-normal, so the implied tail probabilities under-state realized tail frequency in stressed regimes.