Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF) operates in the Basic Materials sector, specifically the Steel industry, with a market capitalization near $6.27B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 30,000 people, carrying a beta of 2.01 to the broader market. Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. Led by C. Lourenco Goncalves, public since 1987-11-05.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $10.27
- Expected Move
- 18.2%
- Implied High
- $12.14
- Implied Low
- $8.40
- Front DTE
- 28 days
As of May 15, 2026, Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF) has an expected move of 18.19%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $8.40 to $12.14 from the current $10.27. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
CLF Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. pricing an expected move of 18.19% from $10.27, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for CLF derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $10.27 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 22, 2026 | 7 | 58.5% | 8.1% | $11.10 | $9.44 |
| May 29, 2026 | 14 | 58.6% | 11.5% | $11.45 | $9.09 |
| Jun 5, 2026 | 21 | 57.9% | 13.9% | $11.70 | $8.84 |
| Jun 12, 2026 | 28 | 63.0% | 17.4% | $12.06 | $8.48 |
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 64.2% | 19.6% | $12.28 | $8.26 |
| Jun 26, 2026 | 42 | 63.4% | 21.5% | $12.48 | $8.06 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 62.6% | 26.0% | $12.94 | $7.60 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 98 | 69.3% | 35.9% | $13.96 | $6.58 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 126 | 67.5% | 39.7% | $14.34 | $6.20 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 154 | 67.5% | 43.8% | $14.77 | $5.77 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 217 | 68.2% | 52.6% | $15.67 | $4.87 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 245 | 66.5% | 54.5% | $15.87 | $4.67 |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 308 | 67.2% | 61.7% | $16.61 | $3.93 |
| Jun 17, 2027 | 398 | 67.9% | 70.9% | $17.55 | $2.99 |
| Dec 17, 2027 | 581 | 67.3% | 84.9% | $18.99 | $1.55 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 616 | 66.9% | 86.9% | $19.20 | $1.34 |
CLF highest implied-volatility contracts
| Type | Strike | Expiration | Volume | OI | IV | Bid | Ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PUT | $11.00 | May 29, 2026 | 717 | 113 | 58.5% | $0.86 | $0.97 |
| CALL | $10.00 | Jun 18, 2026 | 4.5K | 18.5K | 64.2% | $0.94 | $0.99 |
| CALL | $22.00 | Jan 15, 2027 | 8 | 24.1K | 67.4% | $0.34 | $0.36 |
| CALL | $11.00 | May 22, 2026 | 1.8K | 2.1K | 60.1% | $0.11 | $0.12 |
| CALL | $12.00 | Jun 18, 2026 | 647 | 21.0K | 64.1% | $0.27 | $0.29 |
| CALL | $10.00 | Jun 18, 2026 | 4.5K | 18.5K | 64.2% | $0.94 | $0.99 |
| PUT | $10.50 | May 22, 2026 | 681 | 408 | 58.5% | $0.41 | $0.48 |
| CALL | $11.00 | Jun 18, 2026 | 1.4K | 15.7K | 63.2% | $0.51 | $0.54 |
| CALL | $13.00 | Jun 18, 2026 | 88 | 17.1K | 65.8% | $0.14 | $0.17 |
| PUT | $11.00 | May 22, 2026 | 624 | 419 | 60.1% | $0.77 | $0.84 |
Top 10 contracts from the ORATS-sourced nightly scan; ranked by iv within the broader S&P 500/400/600 + ETF universe.
Frequently asked CLF expected move questions
- What is the current CLF expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF) has an expected move of 18.19% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $8.40 to $12.14 from the current $10.27. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the CLF expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is CLF expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.