What is the ZROZ 30-day expected price range?

As of May 29, 2026, with ZROZ at $62.42 and ATM IV at 13.3%, the implied 30-day one-standard-deviation range is approximately ±$2.38, or about $60.04 to $64.80. IV rank is subdued, so the priced distribution is tighter than the 1-year typical width.

What does ZROZ risk-neutral density tell us?

Risk-neutral density is the probability distribution of future ZROZ price implied by listed option prices. Extracted via Breeden-Litzenberger (twice-differentiating the call price function with respect to strike), it represents the pricing kernel rather than the real-world probability of outcomes. Persistent skew or fat-tail features in the density reflect how the market is pricing tail risk.

How does ZROZ ATM IV translate to a probability range?

ATM IV is annualized; multiplying by sqrt(t/365) scales it to the chosen tenor. Under lognormal assumptions, the resulting standard deviation defines the ±1σ band that contains roughly 68% of outcomes, ±2σ for 95%. Empirical equity returns have fatter tails than log-normal, so the implied tail probabilities under-state realized tail frequency in stressed regimes.

PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index Exchange-Traded Fund (ZROZ) Probability Analysis

Probability analysis extracts the risk-neutral probability distribution implied by option prices. It shows the market-implied likelihood of the underlying reaching various price levels by expiration.

PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index Exchange-Traded Fund (ZROZ) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management industry, with a market capitalization near $1.35B, listed on AMEX, carrying a beta of 3.62 to the broader market. The Fund seeks to provide total return that closely corresponds, before fees and expenses, to the total return of The BofA Merrill Lynch Long Treasury Principal STRIPS IndexSM public since 2009-11-04.

Snapshot as of May 29, 2026.

Spot Price: $62.42
ATM IV: 13.3%
IV Rank: 17.3%
IV Percentile: 7.9%
HV 20-Day: 16.2%
IV Skew 25Δ: 0.011

As of May 29, 2026, PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index Exchange-Traded Fund (ZROZ) at $62.42 has an ATM IV of 13.3%, implying a 30-day one-standard-deviation range of approximately ±$2.38. IV rank is 17.3% (subdued, distribution priced tighter than usual). IV percentile is 7.9%. The 25-delta skew is +0.011: roughly symmetric wings. Under lognormal assumptions roughly 68% of outcomes fall within ±1σ and 95% within ±2σ; risk-neutral probability analysis refines this by extracting the market-implied distribution directly from options prices, capturing the fat tails that real markets exhibit.

How ZROZ probability analysis Data Feeds Strategy Selection

Strategy selection on PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index Exchange-Traded Fund options does not derive from any single metric in isolation. The probability analysis view above sits inside a broader read: ATM IV currently sits at 13.3% and dealer gamma exposure is positive, so dealer hedging is mechanically mean-reverting. Combine the probability analysis data here with the volatility-skew surface, dealer-gamma exposure, max-pain level, and upcoming-events calendar to build a positioning thesis. Risk-defined structures (credit spreads, debit spreads, iron condors) are usually safer than naked positions while the regime is uncertain; the data on this page anchors the inputs but does not by itself constitute a trade thesis.

How to read the ZROZ probability distribution

The probability cone above is the option-market-implied distribution of where PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index Exchange-Traded Fund spot could end up at expiration. It's derived from the implied-volatility surface via a risk-neutral pricing transformation, not from historical realized returns. With ATM IV at 13.3% and spot at $62.42, the 1σ band is approximately ±4.6% over a 30-day horizon. Recent realized HV-20 of 16.2% runs 2.9 vol points above current implied, an inverted regime where premium buyers are underpaying.

ZROZ risk-neutral vs real-world probabilities

The probabilities derived from option prices reflect the market's risk-adjusted view, not the realized statistical distribution. Risk-neutral probabilities include the equity risk premium and skew preferences priced into options, so they tend to overstate tail probability and understate upside drift relative to actually-realized outcomes. For probability-of-touch calculations and assignment-risk modeling, risk-neutral is the right benchmark. For position-sizing your own conviction, blend with realized-volatility-based statistics from the HV columns.

Trading the ZROZ distribution

Probability-driven strategies aim to capture mispricings between the implied distribution and your own probability assessment. Premium-selling structures (credit spreads, iron condors, cash-secured puts) profit when the implied distribution overprices tail probability relative to realized; premium-buying (debit spreads, long calls/puts, long straddles) profits in the reverse. With ZROZ IV rank at 17.3%, the chain is pricing tighter tails than recent realized history; buyers get cheaper optionality but need a real catalyst to monetize. Always pair probability-driven strategy selection with a stop loss or wing-defined risk - the implied distribution is a snapshot, and regime shifts can invalidate it intraday.

Learn how risk-neutral density is reported and how to read the data →

Frequently asked ZROZ probability analysis questions

What is the ZROZ 30-day expected price range?: As of May 29, 2026, with ZROZ at $62.42 and ATM IV at 13.3%, the implied 30-day one-standard-deviation range is approximately ±$2.38, or about $60.04 to $64.80. IV rank is subdued, so the priced distribution is tighter than the 1-year typical width.
What does ZROZ risk-neutral density tell us?: Risk-neutral density is the probability distribution of future ZROZ price implied by listed option prices. Extracted via Breeden-Litzenberger (twice-differentiating the call price function with respect to strike), it represents the pricing kernel rather than the real-world probability of outcomes. Persistent skew or fat-tail features in the density reflect how the market is pricing tail risk.
How does ZROZ ATM IV translate to a probability range?: ATM IV is annualized; multiplying by sqrt(t/365) scales it to the chosen tenor. Under lognormal assumptions, the resulting standard deviation defines the ±1σ band that contains roughly 68% of outcomes, ±2σ for 95%. Empirical equity returns have fatter tails than log-normal, so the implied tail probabilities under-state realized tail frequency in stressed regimes.