What is the XTN 30-day expected price range?

As of May 29, 2026, with XTN at $111.82 and ATM IV at 31.4%, the implied 30-day one-standard-deviation range is approximately ±$10.07, or about $101.75 to $121.89.

What does XTN risk-neutral density tell us?

Risk-neutral density is the probability distribution of future XTN price implied by listed option prices. Extracted via Breeden-Litzenberger (twice-differentiating the call price function with respect to strike), it represents the pricing kernel rather than the real-world probability of outcomes. Persistent skew or fat-tail features in the density reflect how the market is pricing tail risk.

How does XTN ATM IV translate to a probability range?

ATM IV is annualized; multiplying by sqrt(t/365) scales it to the chosen tenor. Under lognormal assumptions, the resulting standard deviation defines the ±1σ band that contains roughly 68% of outcomes, ±2σ for 95%. Empirical equity returns have fatter tails than log-normal, so the implied tail probabilities under-state realized tail frequency in stressed regimes.

State Street SPDR S&P Transportation ETF (XTN) Probability Analysis

Probability analysis extracts the risk-neutral probability distribution implied by option prices. It shows the market-implied likelihood of the underlying reaching various price levels by expiration.

State Street SPDR S&P Transportation ETF (XTN) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management industry, with a market capitalization near $162.8M, listed on AMEX, carrying a beta of 1.69 to the broader market. The State Street SPDR S&P Transportation ETF seeks to provide investment results that, before fees and expenses, correspond generally to the total return performance of the S&P Transportation Select Industry Index (the "Index")Seeks to provide exposure to the transportation segment of the S&P TMI, comprises the following sub-industries: Air Freight & Logistics, Airport Services, Cargo Ground Transportation, Highways & Rail Tracks, Marine Transportation, Marine Ports & Services,Passenger Airlines, Passenger Ground Transportation, and Rail TransportationSeeks to track a modified equal weighted index which provides the potential for unconcentrated industry exposure across large, mid and small cap stocksAllows investors to take strategic or tactical positions at a more targeted level than traditional sector based investing public since 2011-01-27.

Snapshot as of May 29, 2026.

Spot Price: $111.82
ATM IV: 31.4%
IV Rank: 49.7%
IV Percentile: 71.0%
HV 20-Day: 32.0%
IV Skew 25Δ: 0.107

As of May 29, 2026, State Street SPDR S&P Transportation ETF (XTN) at $111.82 has an ATM IV of 31.4%, implying a 30-day one-standard-deviation range of approximately ±$10.07. IV rank is 49.7% (near its 1-year median). IV percentile is 71.0%. The 25-delta skew is +0.107: upside tail priced richer than downside, biasing probability mass above spot. Under lognormal assumptions roughly 68% of outcomes fall within ±1σ and 95% within ±2σ; risk-neutral probability analysis refines this by extracting the market-implied distribution directly from options prices, capturing the fat tails that real markets exhibit.

How XTN probability analysis Data Feeds Strategy Selection

Strategy selection on State Street SPDR S&P Transportation ETF options does not derive from any single metric in isolation. The probability analysis view above sits inside a broader read: ATM IV currently sits at 31.4% and dealer gamma exposure is negative, so dealer hedging amplifies directional moves. Combine the probability analysis data here with the volatility-skew surface, dealer-gamma exposure, max-pain level, and upcoming-events calendar to build a positioning thesis. Risk-defined structures (credit spreads, debit spreads, iron condors) are usually safer than naked positions while the regime is uncertain; the data on this page anchors the inputs but does not by itself constitute a trade thesis.

How to read the XTN probability distribution

The probability cone above is the option-market-implied distribution of where State Street SPDR S&P Transportation ETF spot could end up at expiration. It's derived from the implied-volatility surface via a risk-neutral pricing transformation, not from historical realized returns. With ATM IV at 31.4% and spot at $111.82, the 1σ band is approximately ±10.8% over a 30-day horizon. Recent realized HV-20 of 32.0% runs 0.6 vol points above current implied, an inverted regime where premium buyers are underpaying.

XTN risk-neutral vs real-world probabilities

The probabilities derived from option prices reflect the market's risk-adjusted view, not the realized statistical distribution. Risk-neutral probabilities include the equity risk premium and skew preferences priced into options, so they tend to overstate tail probability and understate upside drift relative to actually-realized outcomes. For probability-of-touch calculations and assignment-risk modeling, risk-neutral is the right benchmark. For position-sizing your own conviction, blend with realized-volatility-based statistics from the HV columns.

Trading the XTN distribution

Probability-driven strategies aim to capture mispricings between the implied distribution and your own probability assessment. Premium-selling structures (credit spreads, iron condors, cash-secured puts) profit when the implied distribution overprices tail probability relative to realized; premium-buying (debit spreads, long calls/puts, long straddles) profits in the reverse. Always pair probability-driven strategy selection with a stop loss or wing-defined risk - the implied distribution is a snapshot, and regime shifts can invalidate it intraday.

Learn how risk-neutral density is reported and how to read the data →

Frequently asked XTN probability analysis questions

What is the XTN 30-day expected price range?: As of May 29, 2026, with XTN at $111.82 and ATM IV at 31.4%, the implied 30-day one-standard-deviation range is approximately ±$10.07, or about $101.75 to $121.89.
What does XTN risk-neutral density tell us?: Risk-neutral density is the probability distribution of future XTN price implied by listed option prices. Extracted via Breeden-Litzenberger (twice-differentiating the call price function with respect to strike), it represents the pricing kernel rather than the real-world probability of outcomes. Persistent skew or fat-tail features in the density reflect how the market is pricing tail risk.
How does XTN ATM IV translate to a probability range?: ATM IV is annualized; multiplying by sqrt(t/365) scales it to the chosen tenor. Under lognormal assumptions, the resulting standard deviation defines the ±1σ band that contains roughly 68% of outcomes, ±2σ for 95%. Empirical equity returns have fatter tails than log-normal, so the implied tail probabilities under-state realized tail frequency in stressed regimes.