What is the current VGIT expected move?

As of May 29, 2026, Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (VGIT) has an expected move of 1.38% over the next 20 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $58.24 to $59.86 from the current $59.05. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the VGIT expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is VGIT expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (VGIT) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (VGIT) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management industry, with a market capitalization near $48.63B, listed on NASDAQ, carrying a beta of 0.80 to the broader market. Seeks to provide a moderate and sustainable level of current income. public since 2009-11-23.

Snapshot as of May 29, 2026.

Spot Price: $59.05
Expected Move: 1.4%
Implied High: $59.86
Implied Low: $58.24
Front DTE: 20 days

As of May 29, 2026, Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (VGIT) has an expected move of 1.38%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $58.24 to $59.86 from the current $59.05. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

VGIT Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF pricing an expected move of 1.38% from $59.05, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the VGIT implied-range chart

The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 1.38%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $58.24 to $59.86. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

VGIT expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. VGIT term-structure is in backwardation (slope -0.003), so near-dated tenors price in disproportionate vol - usually because of a known event in the front-month window. With IV rank at 0.6%, the implied move is at the low end of the typical VGIT range - cheap optionality for buyers, thin premium for sellers.

Sizing VGIT structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. VGIT put/call volume ratio currently at 0.67 indicates balanced flow without strong directional skew. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for VGIT derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $59.05 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Jun 18, 2026	20	4.8%	1.1%	$59.71	$58.39
Jul 17, 2026	49	4.5%	1.6%	$60.02	$58.08
Oct 16, 2026	140	4.6%	2.8%	$60.73	$57.37
Jan 15, 2027	231	4.7%	3.7%	$61.26	$56.84

Frequently asked VGIT expected move questions

What is the current VGIT expected move?: As of May 29, 2026, Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (VGIT) has an expected move of 1.38% over the next 20 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $58.24 to $59.86 from the current $59.05. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the VGIT expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is VGIT expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.