What is the UVXY 30-day expected price range?

As of Oct 14, 2026, with UVXY at $16.80 and ATM IV at 87.6%, the implied 30-day one-standard-deviation range is approximately ±$4.22, or about $12.58 to $21.02. IV rank is subdued, so the priced distribution is tighter than the 1-year typical width.

What does UVXY risk-neutral density tell us?

Risk-neutral density is the probability distribution of future UVXY price implied by listed option prices. Extracted via Breeden-Litzenberger (twice-differentiating the call price function with respect to strike), it represents the pricing kernel rather than the real-world probability of outcomes. Persistent skew or fat-tail features in the density reflect how the market is pricing tail risk.

How does UVXY ATM IV translate to a probability range?

ATM IV is annualized; multiplying by sqrt(t/365) scales it to the chosen tenor. Under lognormal assumptions, the resulting standard deviation defines the ±1σ band that contains roughly 68% of outcomes, ±2σ for 95%. Empirical equity returns have fatter tails than log-normal, so the implied tail probabilities under-state realized tail frequency in stressed regimes.

ProShares - Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (UVXY) Probability Analysis

Probability analysis extracts the risk-neutral probability distribution implied by option prices. It shows the market-implied likelihood of the underlying reaching various price levels by expiration.

ProShares - Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (UVXY) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management - Leveraged industry, with a market capitalization near $99.4M, listed on CBOE, carrying a beta of -3.29 to the broader market. The ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF aims to deliver daily investment outcomes, prior to the deduction of fees and expenses, that are one-and-a-half times (1. public since 2011-10-04.

Snapshot as of Oct 14, 2026.

Spot Price: $16.80
ATM IV: 87.6%
IV Rank: 16.5%
IV Percentile: 42.9%
HV 20-Day: 47.8%
IV Skew 25Δ: -0.375

As of Oct 14, 2026, ProShares - Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (UVXY) at $16.80 has an ATM IV of 87.6%, implying a 30-day one-standard-deviation range of approximately ±$4.22. IV rank is 16.5% (subdued, distribution priced tighter than usual). IV percentile is 42.9%. The 25-delta skew is -0.375: downside tail priced richer than upside, biasing probability mass below spot. Under lognormal assumptions roughly 68% of outcomes fall within ±1σ and 95% within ±2σ; risk-neutral probability analysis refines this by extracting the market-implied distribution directly from options prices, capturing the fat tails that real markets exhibit.

How UVXY probability analysis Data Feeds Strategy Selection

Strategy selection on ProShares - Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF options does not derive from any single metric in isolation. The probability analysis view above sits inside a broader read: ATM IV currently sits at 87.6% and dealer gamma exposure is positive, so dealer hedging is mechanically mean-reverting. Combine the probability analysis data here with the volatility-skew surface, dealer-gamma exposure, max-pain level, and upcoming-events calendar to build a positioning thesis. Risk-defined structures (credit spreads, debit spreads, iron condors) are usually safer than naked positions while the regime is uncertain; the data on this page anchors the inputs but does not by itself constitute a trade thesis.

How to read the UVXY probability distribution

The probability cone above is the option-market-implied distribution of where ProShares - Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF spot could end up at expiration. It's derived from the implied-volatility surface via a risk-neutral pricing transformation, not from historical realized returns. With ATM IV at 87.6% and spot at $16.80, the 1σ band is approximately ±30.2% over a 30-day horizon. Recent realized HV-20 of 47.8% runs 39.8 vol points below the current implied, suggesting the chain is pricing more dispersion than the underlying has been delivering.

UVXY risk-neutral vs real-world probabilities

The probabilities derived from option prices reflect the market's risk-adjusted view, not the realized statistical distribution. Risk-neutral probabilities include the equity risk premium and skew preferences priced into options, so they tend to overstate tail probability and understate upside drift relative to actually-realized outcomes. UVXY's put-skewed 25-delta surface (-0.375) means downside risk-neutral probabilities are higher than upside - the empirical bias is well-documented. For probability-of-touch calculations and assignment-risk modeling, risk-neutral is the right benchmark. For position-sizing your own conviction, blend with realized-volatility-based statistics from the HV columns.

Trading the UVXY distribution

Probability-driven strategies aim to capture mispricings between the implied distribution and your own probability assessment. Premium-selling structures (credit spreads, iron condors, cash-secured puts) profit when the implied distribution overprices tail probability relative to realized; premium-buying (debit spreads, long calls/puts, long straddles) profits in the reverse. With UVXY IV rank at 16.5%, the chain is pricing tighter tails than recent realized history; buyers get cheaper optionality but need a real catalyst to monetize. Always pair probability-driven strategy selection with a stop loss or wing-defined risk - the implied distribution is a snapshot, and regime shifts can invalidate it intraday.

Learn how risk-neutral density is reported and how to read the data →

Chart aggregates top-ranked contracts by strike from the institutional-grade nightly options scan. Sparse coverage on long-tail tickers reflects the scan's S&P 500/400/600 + ETF focus.

UVXY highest implied-volatility contracts

Type	Strike	Expiration	Volume	OI	IV	Bid	Ask
CALL	$110.00	Jan 15, 2027	0	940	272.8%	$0.16	$0.42
CALL	$111.00	Jan 15, 2027	6	1.0K	272.3%	$0.19	$0.32
CALL	$100.00	Jan 15, 2027	1	945	264.4%	$0.25	$0.64
PUT	$100.00	Jan 15, 2027	0	522	264.4%	$81.60	$85.40
CALL	$75.00	Jan 15, 2027	0	294	226.0%	$0.01	$0.80

Top 5 contracts from the institutional-grade nightly options scan; ranked by iv within the broader S&P 500/400/600 + ETF universe.

Frequently asked UVXY probability analysis questions

What is the UVXY 30-day expected price range?: As of Oct 14, 2026, with UVXY at $16.80 and ATM IV at 87.6%, the implied 30-day one-standard-deviation range is approximately ±$4.22, or about $12.58 to $21.02. IV rank is subdued, so the priced distribution is tighter than the 1-year typical width.
What does UVXY risk-neutral density tell us?: Risk-neutral density is the probability distribution of future UVXY price implied by listed option prices. Extracted via Breeden-Litzenberger (twice-differentiating the call price function with respect to strike), it represents the pricing kernel rather than the real-world probability of outcomes. Persistent skew or fat-tail features in the density reflect how the market is pricing tail risk.
How does UVXY ATM IV translate to a probability range?: ATM IV is annualized; multiplying by sqrt(t/365) scales it to the chosen tenor. Under lognormal assumptions, the resulting standard deviation defines the ±1σ band that contains roughly 68% of outcomes, ±2σ for 95%. Empirical equity returns have fatter tails than log-normal, so the implied tail probabilities under-state realized tail frequency in stressed regimes.