What is the current UVXY expected move?

As of May 29, 2026, ProShares - Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (UVXY) has an expected move of 23.06% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $21.91 to $35.05 from the current $28.48. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the UVXY expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is UVXY expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

ProShares - Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (UVXY) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

ProShares - Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (UVXY) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management - Leveraged industry, with a market capitalization near $196.7M, listed on CBOE, carrying a beta of -3.31 to the broader market. ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to one and one-half times (1. public since 2011-10-04.

Snapshot as of May 29, 2026.

Spot Price: $28.48
Expected Move: 23.1%
Implied High: $35.05
Implied Low: $21.91
Front DTE: 28 days

As of May 29, 2026, ProShares - Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (UVXY) has an expected move of 23.06%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $21.91 to $35.05 from the current $28.48. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

UVXY Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With ProShares - Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF pricing an expected move of 23.06% from $28.48, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the UVXY implied-range chart

The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 23.06%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $21.91 to $35.05. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

UVXY expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. UVXY term-structure is in contango (slope 0.055), so longer-dated tenors price in proportionally more vol than √time scaling alone would suggest - typically because long-dated cycles include uncertain macro states. With IV rank at 8.0%, the implied move is at the low end of the typical UVXY range - cheap optionality for buyers, thin premium for sellers.

Sizing UVXY structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. UVXY put/call volume ratio currently at 0.46 indicates speculative call flow dominates - look for upside-skewed sentiment. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for UVXY derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $28.48 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Jun 5, 2026	7	68.8%	9.5%	$31.19	$25.77
Jun 12, 2026	14	70.8%	13.9%	$32.43	$24.53
Jun 18, 2026	20	72.9%	17.1%	$33.34	$23.62
Jun 26, 2026	28	78.3%	21.7%	$34.66	$22.30
Jul 2, 2026	34	83.8%	25.6%	$35.76	$21.20
Jul 10, 2026	42	85.7%	29.1%	$36.76	$20.20
Jul 17, 2026	49	88.0%	32.2%	$37.66	$19.30
Aug 21, 2026	84	104.9%	50.3%	$42.81	$14.15
Sep 18, 2026	112	101.6%	56.3%	$44.51	$12.45
Dec 18, 2026	203	120.6%	89.9%	$54.09	$2.87
Jan 15, 2027	231	114.7%	91.2%	$54.47	$2.49
Jan 21, 2028	602	136.1%	174.8%	$78.26	$-21.30

Frequently asked UVXY expected move questions

What is the current UVXY expected move?: As of May 29, 2026, ProShares - Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (UVXY) has an expected move of 23.06% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $21.91 to $35.05 from the current $28.48. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the UVXY expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is UVXY expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.