What is the TMV 30-day expected price range?

As of May 29, 2026, with TMV at $38.64 and ATM IV at 26.9%, the implied 30-day one-standard-deviation range is approximately ±$2.98, or about $35.66 to $41.62. IV rank is subdued, so the priced distribution is tighter than the 1-year typical width.

What does TMV risk-neutral density tell us?

Risk-neutral density is the probability distribution of future TMV price implied by listed option prices. Extracted via Breeden-Litzenberger (twice-differentiating the call price function with respect to strike), it represents the pricing kernel rather than the real-world probability of outcomes. Persistent skew or fat-tail features in the density reflect how the market is pricing tail risk.

How does TMV ATM IV translate to a probability range?

ATM IV is annualized; multiplying by sqrt(t/365) scales it to the chosen tenor. Under lognormal assumptions, the resulting standard deviation defines the ±1σ band that contains roughly 68% of outcomes, ±2σ for 95%. Empirical equity returns have fatter tails than log-normal, so the implied tail probabilities under-state realized tail frequency in stressed regimes.

Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X ETF (TMV) Probability Analysis

Probability analysis extracts the risk-neutral probability distribution implied by option prices. It shows the market-implied likelihood of the underlying reaching various price levels by expiration.

Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X ETF (TMV) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management - Leveraged industry, with a market capitalization near $183.0M, listed on AMEX, carrying a beta of -6.87 to the broader market. The Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull & Bear 3X ETFs seek daily investment results, before fees and expenses, of 300%, or 300% of the inverse (or opposite), of the performance of the ICE U. public since 2009-04-16.

Snapshot as of May 29, 2026.

Spot Price: $38.64
ATM IV: 26.9%
IV Rank: 9.9%
IV Percentile: 5.6%
HV 20-Day: 33.2%
IV Skew 25Δ: -0.021

As of May 29, 2026, Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X ETF (TMV) at $38.64 has an ATM IV of 26.9%, implying a 30-day one-standard-deviation range of approximately ±$2.98. IV rank is 9.9% (subdued, distribution priced tighter than usual). IV percentile is 5.6%. The 25-delta skew is -0.021: downside tail priced richer than upside, biasing probability mass below spot. Under lognormal assumptions roughly 68% of outcomes fall within ±1σ and 95% within ±2σ; risk-neutral probability analysis refines this by extracting the market-implied distribution directly from options prices, capturing the fat tails that real markets exhibit.

How TMV probability analysis Data Feeds Strategy Selection

Strategy selection on Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X ETF options does not derive from any single metric in isolation. The probability analysis view above sits inside a broader read: ATM IV currently sits at 26.9% and dealer gamma exposure is positive, so dealer hedging is mechanically mean-reverting. Combine the probability analysis data here with the volatility-skew surface, dealer-gamma exposure, max-pain level, and upcoming-events calendar to build a positioning thesis. Risk-defined structures (credit spreads, debit spreads, iron condors) are usually safer than naked positions while the regime is uncertain; the data on this page anchors the inputs but does not by itself constitute a trade thesis.

How to read the TMV probability distribution

The probability cone above is the option-market-implied distribution of where Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X ETF spot could end up at expiration. It's derived from the implied-volatility surface via a risk-neutral pricing transformation, not from historical realized returns. With ATM IV at 26.9% and spot at $38.64, the 1σ band is approximately ±9.3% over a 30-day horizon. Recent realized HV-20 of 33.2% runs 6.3 vol points above current implied, an inverted regime where premium buyers are underpaying.

TMV risk-neutral vs real-world probabilities

The probabilities derived from option prices reflect the market's risk-adjusted view, not the realized statistical distribution. Risk-neutral probabilities include the equity risk premium and skew preferences priced into options, so they tend to overstate tail probability and understate upside drift relative to actually-realized outcomes. TMV's put-skewed 25-delta surface (-0.021) means downside risk-neutral probabilities are higher than upside - the empirical bias is well-documented. For probability-of-touch calculations and assignment-risk modeling, risk-neutral is the right benchmark. For position-sizing your own conviction, blend with realized-volatility-based statistics from the HV columns.

Trading the TMV distribution

Probability-driven strategies aim to capture mispricings between the implied distribution and your own probability assessment. Premium-selling structures (credit spreads, iron condors, cash-secured puts) profit when the implied distribution overprices tail probability relative to realized; premium-buying (debit spreads, long calls/puts, long straddles) profits in the reverse. With TMV IV rank at 9.9%, the chain is pricing tighter tails than recent realized history; buyers get cheaper optionality but need a real catalyst to monetize. Always pair probability-driven strategy selection with a stop loss or wing-defined risk - the implied distribution is a snapshot, and regime shifts can invalidate it intraday.

Learn how risk-neutral density is reported and how to read the data →

Frequently asked TMV probability analysis questions

What is the TMV 30-day expected price range?: As of May 29, 2026, with TMV at $38.64 and ATM IV at 26.9%, the implied 30-day one-standard-deviation range is approximately ±$2.98, or about $35.66 to $41.62. IV rank is subdued, so the priced distribution is tighter than the 1-year typical width.
What does TMV risk-neutral density tell us?: Risk-neutral density is the probability distribution of future TMV price implied by listed option prices. Extracted via Breeden-Litzenberger (twice-differentiating the call price function with respect to strike), it represents the pricing kernel rather than the real-world probability of outcomes. Persistent skew or fat-tail features in the density reflect how the market is pricing tail risk.
How does TMV ATM IV translate to a probability range?: ATM IV is annualized; multiplying by sqrt(t/365) scales it to the chosen tenor. Under lognormal assumptions, the resulting standard deviation defines the ±1σ band that contains roughly 68% of outcomes, ±2σ for 95%. Empirical equity returns have fatter tails than log-normal, so the implied tail probabilities under-state realized tail frequency in stressed regimes.