What is the current TMV expected move?

As of Jun 30, 2026, Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X ETF (TMV) has an expected move of 7.43% over the next 17 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $34.15 to $39.63 from the current $36.89. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the TMV expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is TMV expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X ETF (TMV) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X ETF (TMV) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management industry, with a market capitalization near $158.0M, listed on AMEX, carrying a beta of -6.90 to the broader market. TMV provides daily inverse (-3x) exposure to the ICE U. public since 2009-04-16.

Snapshot as of Jun 30, 2026.

Spot Price: $36.89
Expected Move: 7.4%
Implied High: $39.63
Implied Low: $34.15
Front DTE: 17 days

As of Jun 30, 2026, Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X ETF (TMV) has an expected move of 7.43%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $34.15 to $39.63 from the current $36.89. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

TMV Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X ETF pricing an expected move of 7.43% from $36.89, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the TMV implied-range chart

The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 7.43%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $34.15 to $39.63. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

TMV expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. TMV term-structure is in contango (slope 0.007), so longer-dated tenors price in proportionally more vol than √time scaling alone would suggest - typically because long-dated cycles include uncertain macro states. With IV rank at 10.4%, the implied move is at the low end of the typical TMV range - cheap optionality for buyers, thin premium for sellers.

Sizing TMV structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. TMV put/call volume ratio currently at 0.90 indicates balanced flow without strong directional skew. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for TMV derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $36.89 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Jul 17, 2026	17	25.9%	5.6%	$38.95	$34.83
Aug 21, 2026	52	26.6%	10.0%	$40.59	$33.19
Nov 20, 2026	143	29.7%	18.6%	$43.75	$30.03
Jan 15, 2027	199	29.8%	22.0%	$45.01	$28.77
Feb 19, 2027	234	30.1%	24.1%	$45.78	$28.00
Jan 21, 2028	570	31.8%	39.7%	$51.55	$22.23

Frequently asked TMV expected move questions

What is the current TMV expected move?: As of Jun 30, 2026, Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X ETF (TMV) has an expected move of 7.43% over the next 17 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $34.15 to $39.63 from the current $36.89. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the TMV expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is TMV expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.