Is TMV options pricing rich or cheap right now?

As of May 29, 2026, Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X ETF (TMV) ATM IV is 26.9% against 20-day realized volatility of 33.2%. IV rank is 9.9%. Realized volatility currently exceeds implied: an inversion of the typical equity volatility risk premium that often precedes IV expansion.

What is the TMV variance risk premium?

The variance risk premium is the persistent gap between implied and subsequently realized volatility. In equity markets it averages positive because option sellers demand compensation for bearing variance shocks. TMV is currently pricing inverted to the historical pattern, which is one input to whether short-vol or long-vol structures carry their typical edge.

What does TMV IV rank mean for strategy selection?

IV rank normalizes the current ATM IV to its 1-year range: 0% is the low, 100% is the high. TMV's current rank of 9.9% signals where current pricing sits in its own 1-year history. High-rank regimes typically favor premium-selling structures (credit spreads, condors, covered calls); low-rank regimes typically favor premium-buying or long-volatility structures.

Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X ETF (TMV) IV/HV History

Comparing implied volatility to historical (realized) volatility reveals whether options are priced rich or cheap relative to actual price movement. Persistent gaps can signal trading opportunities.

Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X ETF (TMV) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management - Leveraged industry, with a market capitalization near $183.0M, listed on AMEX, carrying a beta of -6.87 to the broader market. The Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull & Bear 3X ETFs seek daily investment results, before fees and expenses, of 300%, or 300% of the inverse (or opposite), of the performance of the ICE U. public since 2009-04-16.

Snapshot as of May 29, 2026.

Spot Price: $38.64
ATM IV: 26.9%
HV 20-Day: 33.2%
HV 60-Day: 32.2%
IV Rank: 9.9%
IV Percentile: 5.6%

As of May 29, 2026, Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X ETF (TMV) ATM implied volatility is 26.9%. 20-day realized volatility is 33.2%, producing an IV-HV spread of -6.3 vol points. Realized volatility currently exceeds implied, an inversion that can signal a pending IV expansion. IV rank is 9.9%.

How TMV iv/hv history Data Feeds Strategy Selection

Strategy selection on Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X ETF options does not derive from any single metric in isolation. The iv/hv history view above sits inside a broader read: ATM IV currently sits at 26.9% and dealer gamma exposure is positive, so dealer hedging is mechanically mean-reverting. Combine the iv/hv history data here with the volatility-skew surface, dealer-gamma exposure, max-pain level, and upcoming-events calendar to build a positioning thesis. Risk-defined structures (credit spreads, debit spreads, iron condors) are usually safer than naked positions while the regime is uncertain; the data on this page anchors the inputs but does not by itself constitute a trade thesis.

How to read the TMV IV vs HV chart

The dual-line chart above tracks ATM implied volatility (forward-looking, what the chain is pricing) against 20-day realized historical volatility (backward-looking, what actually happened). ATM IV currently prints at 26.9%, 9.9% IV rank, against 33.2% realized over the trailing 20 trading days. Implied is currently below realized by 6.3 vol points, an inverted regime where premium buyers are underpaying for the move - rare and often a setup for IV expansion. Persistent IV-above-HV is the variance-risk-premium-positive state typical of equity markets; persistent IV-below-HV is rare and usually marks underpriced vol that often expands.

TMV IV/HV regimes and trade selection

TMV sits in the bottom quartile of its 1-year IV range. Low-IV-rank regimes favor premium-buying or long-vol structures - long calls/puts, debit spreads, calendar spreads, long straddles. The risk: low rank can persist for months while theta decay eats premium-buyers alive without a vol-expansion catalyst.

Using TMV vol history alongside the term structure

The IV/HV gap on this page captures the level of premium; the term-structure slope on the volatility page captures its shape across expirations. Term structure is roughly flat at 0.004, no strong near vs far premium being priced. Pair the rank read with the slope read with the event calendar to choose the right tenor for the structure.

TMV IV/HV signal in volatility-cycle context

Equity-vol cycles tend to compress and expand on multi-month timeframes: a typical sequence runs low-IV-rank consolidation (months of flat tape, decaying premium) into a vol-expansion catalyst (earnings miss, macro shock, regime change) into elevated-IV-rank stress (premiums fat, dispersion high) back to mean-reverting compression. TMV's current 9.9% IV rank places the ticker in the compression phase of that cycle. Compression phases are profitable for theta-harvesting structures but tend to end with abrupt vol-expansion regimes that hit short-vol books fast. The ratio of HV-20 (33.2%) to HV-60 (32.2%) gives a second cycle indicator: when 20-day exceeds 60-day, recent realization is running hotter than the trailing-quarter average - typically a sign that recent days have already started expanding vol regardless of where IV rank prints. Use the time series above to spot inflection points: meaningful IV/HV gap closures and openings tend to precede regime shifts by a few sessions.

Learn how implied vs realized volatility is reported and how to read the data →

Daily ATM implied volatility and 20-day realized (historical) volatility for TMV over the last ~36 trading days. The IV-HV gap measures the variance risk premium - when IV trades persistently above realized HV, premium-sellers earn the spread; when IV dips below HV, vol is structurally underpriced.

Daily values from end-of-day option_ticker_snapshots. Series sparse on illiquid tickers reflects gaps in the upstream end-of-day options data feed.

Most recent 15 trading days (descending). Older history appears in the chart above.

Date	ATM IV	HV 20d	HV 60d	IV Rank
May 29, 2026	26.9%	33.2%	32.2%	9.9%
May 28, 2026	26.7%	33.2%	32.3%	9.2%
May 27, 2026	27.4%	32.7%	32.2%	11.7%
May 26, 2026	29.3%	32.7%	32.1%	18.5%
May 21, 2026	31.6%	30.1%	31.4%	26.6%
May 19, 2026	35.3%	27.2%	30.2%	39.8%
May 15, 2026	33.3%	26.8%	30.1%	32.7%
May 14, 2026	26.4%	21.9%	30.1%	8.2%
May 13, 2026	28.6%	22.9%	30.2%	16.0%
May 12, 2026	28.0%	23.1%	31.0%	13.8%
May 11, 2026	29.6%	22.3%	30.8%	19.5%
May 8, 2026	24.1%	21.5%	30.5%	0.0%
May 7, 2026	28.5%	21.1%	31.1%	10.4%
May 6, 2026	26.8%	20.3%	30.9%	4.4%
May 5, 2026	28.9%	17.8%	30.5%	11.8%

Frequently asked TMV iv/hv history questions

Is TMV options pricing rich or cheap right now?: As of May 29, 2026, Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X ETF (TMV) ATM IV is 26.9% against 20-day realized volatility of 33.2%. IV rank is 9.9%. Realized volatility currently exceeds implied: an inversion of the typical equity volatility risk premium that often precedes IV expansion.
What is the TMV variance risk premium?: The variance risk premium is the persistent gap between implied and subsequently realized volatility. In equity markets it averages positive because option sellers demand compensation for bearing variance shocks. TMV is currently pricing inverted to the historical pattern, which is one input to whether short-vol or long-vol structures carry their typical edge.
What does TMV IV rank mean for strategy selection?: IV rank normalizes the current ATM IV to its 1-year range: 0% is the low, 100% is the high. TMV's current rank of 9.9% signals where current pricing sits in its own 1-year history. High-rank regimes typically favor premium-selling structures (credit spreads, condors, covered calls); low-rank regimes typically favor premium-buying or long-volatility structures.