iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) Probability Analysis
Probability analysis extracts the risk-neutral probability distribution implied by option prices. It shows the market-implied likelihood of the underlying reaching various price levels by expiration.
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management - Bonds industry, with a market capitalization near $39.88B, listed on NASDAQ, carrying a beta of 2.40 to the broader market. Providing exposure to long-term government debt, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF aims to replicate the performance of an index. public since 2002-07-30.
Snapshot as of Oct 14, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $78.87
- ATM IV
- 13.8%
- IV Rank
- 65.6%
- IV Percentile
- 91.7%
- HV 20-Day
- 11.3%
- IV Skew 25Δ
- 0.010
As of Oct 14, 2026, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) at $78.87 has an ATM IV of 13.8%, implying a 30-day one-standard-deviation range of approximately ±$3.12. IV rank is 65.6% (near its 1-year median). IV percentile is 91.7%. The 25-delta skew is +0.010: roughly symmetric wings. Under lognormal assumptions roughly 68% of outcomes fall within ±1σ and 95% within ±2σ; risk-neutral probability analysis refines this by extracting the market-implied distribution directly from options prices, capturing the fat tails that real markets exhibit.
How TLT probability analysis Data Feeds Strategy Selection
Strategy selection on iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF options does not derive from any single metric in isolation. The probability analysis view above sits inside a broader read: ATM IV currently sits at 13.8% and dealer gamma exposure is positive, so dealer hedging is mechanically mean-reverting. Combine the probability analysis data here with the volatility-skew surface, dealer-gamma exposure, max-pain level, and upcoming-events calendar to build a positioning thesis. Risk-defined structures (credit spreads, debit spreads, iron condors) are usually safer than naked positions while the regime is uncertain; the data on this page anchors the inputs but does not by itself constitute a trade thesis.
How to read the TLT probability distribution
The probability cone above is the option-market-implied distribution of where iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF spot could end up at expiration. It's derived from the implied-volatility surface via a risk-neutral pricing transformation, not from historical realized returns. With ATM IV at 13.8% and spot at $78.87, the 1σ band is approximately ±4.8% over a 30-day horizon. Recent realized HV-20 of 11.3% runs 2.5 vol points below the current implied, suggesting the chain is pricing more dispersion than the underlying has been delivering.
TLT risk-neutral vs real-world probabilities
The probabilities derived from option prices reflect the market's risk-adjusted view, not the realized statistical distribution. Risk-neutral probabilities include the equity risk premium and skew preferences priced into options, so they tend to overstate tail probability and understate upside drift relative to actually-realized outcomes. For probability-of-touch calculations and assignment-risk modeling, risk-neutral is the right benchmark. For position-sizing your own conviction, blend with realized-volatility-based statistics from the HV columns.
Trading the TLT distribution
Probability-driven strategies aim to capture mispricings between the implied distribution and your own probability assessment. Premium-selling structures (credit spreads, iron condors, cash-secured puts) profit when the implied distribution overprices tail probability relative to realized; premium-buying (debit spreads, long calls/puts, long straddles) profits in the reverse. Always pair probability-driven strategy selection with a stop loss or wing-defined risk - the implied distribution is a snapshot, and regime shifts can invalidate it intraday.
Learn how risk-neutral density is reported and how to read the data →
TLT highest implied-volatility contracts
| Type | Strike | Expiration | Volume | OI | IV | Bid | Ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CALL | $85.00 | Nov 30, 2026 | 169.8K | 2.7K | 15.4% | $0.17 | $0.18 |
| CALL | $120.00 | Jan 21, 2028 | 421 | 410.4K | 20.0% | $0.24 | $0.28 |
| CALL | $90.00 | Dec 18, 2026 | 7.9K | 342.2K | 17.8% | $0.08 | $0.09 |
| CALL | $85.00 | Nov 30, 2026 | 169.8K | 2.7K | 15.4% | $0.17 | $0.18 |
| CALL | $95.00 | Jan 21, 2028 | 232 | 255.5K | 15.5% | $1.06 | $1.08 |
| CALL | $100.00 | Jan 21, 2028 | 4.1K | 238.6K | 16.4% | $0.74 | $0.75 |
| CALL | $80.00 | Nov 20, 2026 | 53.3K | 59.8K | 13.4% | $0.85 | $0.86 |
| CALL | $105.00 | Jan 21, 2028 | 5.8K | 201.7K | 17.2% | $0.50 | $0.58 |
| CALL | $80.00 | Dec 18, 2026 | 40.4K | 118.5K | 13.9% | $1.26 | $1.28 |
| PUT | $73.00 | Dec 18, 2026 | 1.8K | 157.7K | 16.3% | $0.33 | $0.35 |
Top 10 contracts from the institutional-grade nightly options scan; ranked by iv within the broader S&P 500/400/600 + ETF universe.
Frequently asked TLT probability analysis questions
- What is the TLT 30-day expected price range?
- As of Oct 14, 2026, with TLT at $78.87 and ATM IV at 13.8%, the implied 30-day one-standard-deviation range is approximately ±$3.12, or about $75.75 to $81.99.
- What does TLT risk-neutral density tell us?
- Risk-neutral density is the probability distribution of future TLT price implied by listed option prices. Extracted via Breeden-Litzenberger (twice-differentiating the call price function with respect to strike), it represents the pricing kernel rather than the real-world probability of outcomes. Persistent skew or fat-tail features in the density reflect how the market is pricing tail risk.
- How does TLT ATM IV translate to a probability range?
- ATM IV is annualized; multiplying by sqrt(t/365) scales it to the chosen tenor. Under lognormal assumptions, the resulting standard deviation defines the ±1σ band that contains roughly 68% of outcomes, ±2σ for 95%. Empirical equity returns have fatter tails than log-normal, so the implied tail probabilities under-state realized tail frequency in stressed regimes.