iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management - Bonds industry, with a market capitalization near $41.97B, listed on NASDAQ, carrying a beta of 2.40 to the broader market. Providing exposure to long-term government debt, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF aims to replicate the performance of an index. public since 2002-07-30.
Snapshot as of Aug 21, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $81.95
- Expected Move
- 3.1%
- Implied High
- $84.48
- Implied Low
- $79.42
- Front DTE
- 28 days
As of Aug 21, 2026, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) has an expected move of 3.09%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $79.42 to $84.48 from the current $81.95. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
TLT Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF pricing an expected move of 3.09% from $81.95, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
How to read the TLT implied-range chart
The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 3.09%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $79.42 to $84.48. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.
TLT expected move and event pricing
Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. TLT term-structure is in backwardation (slope -0.001), so near-dated tenors price in disproportionate vol - usually because of a known event in the front-month window.
Sizing TLT structures to the expected move
Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. TLT put/call volume ratio currently at 1.36 indicates protective put flow dominates - look for hedged-money positioning into the move. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for TLT derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $81.95 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | 3 | 7.3% | 0.7% | $82.49 | $81.41 |
| Aug 26, 2026 | 5 | 9.2% | 1.1% | $82.83 | $81.07 |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 7 | 10.3% | 1.4% | $83.12 | $80.78 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | 10 | 9.7% | 1.6% | $83.27 | $80.63 |
| Sep 2, 2026 | 12 | 10.9% | 2.0% | $83.57 | $80.33 |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 14 | 11.2% | 2.2% | $83.75 | $80.15 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 21 | 10.7% | 2.6% | $84.05 | $79.85 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 28 | 10.8% | 3.0% | $84.40 | $79.50 |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 35 | 10.7% | 3.3% | $84.67 | $79.23 |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 40 | 10.7% | 3.5% | $84.85 | $79.05 |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 42 | 11.2% | 3.8% | $85.06 | $78.84 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 56 | 11.1% | 4.3% | $85.51 | $78.39 |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 70 | 12.2% | 5.3% | $86.33 | $77.57 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 91 | 11.6% | 5.8% | $86.70 | $77.20 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 119 | 11.9% | 6.8% | $87.52 | $76.38 |
| Dec 31, 2026 | 132 | 11.7% | 7.0% | $87.72 | $76.18 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 147 | 11.8% | 7.5% | $88.09 | $75.81 |
| Feb 19, 2027 | 182 | 11.8% | 8.3% | $88.78 | $75.12 |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 210 | 11.8% | 9.0% | $89.28 | $74.62 |
| Mar 31, 2027 | 222 | 11.8% | 9.2% | $89.49 | $74.41 |
| Apr 16, 2027 | 238 | 11.9% | 9.6% | $89.82 | $74.08 |
| May 21, 2027 | 273 | 11.9% | 10.3% | $90.38 | $73.52 |
| Jun 17, 2027 | 300 | 12.1% | 11.0% | $90.94 | $72.96 |
| Jun 30, 2027 | 313 | 11.9% | 11.0% | $90.98 | $72.92 |
| Jul 16, 2027 | 329 | 11.9% | 11.3% | $91.21 | $72.69 |
| Aug 20, 2027 | 364 | 11.9% | 11.9% | $91.69 | $72.21 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 518 | 12.0% | 14.3% | $93.67 | $70.23 |
| Jun 16, 2028 | 665 | 12.3% | 16.6% | $95.56 | $68.34 |
| Dec 15, 2028 | 847 | 13.1% | 20.0% | $98.30 | $65.60 |
TLT highest implied-volatility contracts
| Type | Strike | Expiration | Volume | OI | IV | Bid | Ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CALL | $120.00 | Jan 21, 2028 | 266 | 432.0K | 18.2% | $0.23 | $0.34 |
| CALL | $100.00 | Jan 21, 2028 | 1.9K | 383.3K | 13.9% | $0.71 | $0.81 |
| PUT | $81.00 | Sep 18, 2026 | 67.6K | 133.8K | 11.1% | $0.61 | $0.63 |
| PUT | $80.00 | Sep 18, 2026 | 67.3K | 66.4K | 11.5% | $0.34 | $0.35 |
| CALL | $105.00 | Jan 21, 2028 | 53 | 206.3K | 15.0% | $0.52 | $0.61 |
| PUT | $83.00 | Sep 18, 2026 | 30.2K | 78.1K | 10.8% | $1.67 | $1.69 |
| PUT | $82.00 | Sep 18, 2026 | 25.9K | 129.8K | 10.8% | $1.04 | $1.06 |
| CALL | $85.00 | Sep 18, 2026 | 24.9K | 84.9K | 11.7% | $0.14 | $0.15 |
| CALL | $110.00 | Jan 15, 2027 | 10 | 136.0K | 20.2% | $0.03 | $0.04 |
| PUT | $81.00 | Sep 18, 2026 | 67.6K | 133.8K | 11.1% | $0.61 | $0.63 |
Top 10 contracts from the institutional-grade nightly options scan; ranked by iv within the broader S&P 500/400/600 + ETF universe.
Frequently asked TLT expected move questions
- What is the current TLT expected move?
- As of Aug 21, 2026, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) has an expected move of 3.09% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $79.42 to $84.48 from the current $81.95. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the TLT expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is TLT expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.