iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management - Bonds industry, with a market capitalization near $41.10B, listed on NASDAQ, carrying a beta of 2.38 to the broader market. Providing exposure to long-term government debt, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF aims to replicate the performance of an index. public since 2002-07-30.
Snapshot as of Jul 6, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $85.43
- Expected Move
- 2.6%
- Implied High
- $87.62
- Implied Low
- $83.24
- Front DTE
- 32 days
As of Jul 6, 2026, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) has an expected move of 2.57%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $83.24 to $87.62 from the current $85.43. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
TLT Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF pricing an expected move of 2.57% from $85.43, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
How to read the TLT implied-range chart
The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 2.57%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $83.24 to $87.62. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.
TLT expected move and event pricing
Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. TLT term-structure is in backwardation (slope 0.000), so near-dated tenors price in disproportionate vol - usually because of a known event in the front-month window. With IV rank at 6.4%, the implied move is at the low end of the typical TLT range - cheap optionality for buyers, thin premium for sellers.
Sizing TLT structures to the expected move
Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. TLT put/call volume ratio currently at 0.49 indicates speculative call flow dominates - look for upside-skewed sentiment. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for TLT derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $85.43 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 8, 2026 | 2 | 7.8% | 0.6% | $85.92 | $84.94 |
| Jul 10, 2026 | 4 | 8.1% | 0.8% | $86.15 | $84.71 |
| Jul 13, 2026 | 7 | 7.2% | 1.0% | $86.28 | $84.58 |
| Jul 15, 2026 | 9 | 8.1% | 1.3% | $86.52 | $84.34 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 11 | 8.5% | 1.5% | $86.69 | $84.17 |
| Jul 20, 2026 | 14 | 8.2% | 1.6% | $86.80 | $84.06 |
| Jul 24, 2026 | 18 | 8.4% | 1.9% | $87.02 | $83.84 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | 25 | 8.5% | 2.2% | $87.33 | $83.53 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | 32 | 9.1% | 2.7% | $87.73 | $83.13 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | 39 | 9.1% | 3.0% | $87.97 | $82.89 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 46 | 9.2% | 3.3% | $88.22 | $82.64 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 74 | 9.6% | 4.3% | $89.12 | $81.74 |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 86 | 9.6% | 4.7% | $89.41 | $81.45 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 102 | 9.9% | 5.2% | $89.90 | $80.96 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 137 | 10.2% | 6.2% | $90.77 | $80.09 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 165 | 10.5% | 7.1% | $91.46 | $79.40 |
| Dec 31, 2026 | 178 | 10.4% | 7.3% | $91.63 | $79.23 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 193 | 10.4% | 7.6% | $91.89 | $78.97 |
| Feb 19, 2027 | 228 | 10.5% | 8.3% | $92.52 | $78.34 |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 256 | 10.6% | 8.9% | $93.01 | $77.85 |
| Mar 31, 2027 | 268 | 10.6% | 9.1% | $93.19 | $77.67 |
| Apr 16, 2027 | 284 | 10.6% | 9.4% | $93.42 | $77.44 |
| May 21, 2027 | 319 | 10.7% | 10.0% | $93.98 | $76.88 |
| Jun 17, 2027 | 346 | 10.7% | 10.4% | $94.33 | $76.53 |
| Jun 30, 2027 | 359 | 10.8% | 10.7% | $94.58 | $76.28 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 564 | 10.9% | 13.5% | $97.01 | $73.85 |
| Jun 16, 2028 | 711 | 10.9% | 15.2% | $98.43 | $72.43 |
| Dec 15, 2028 | 893 | 11.4% | 17.8% | $100.66 | $70.20 |
TLT highest implied-volatility contracts
| Type | Strike | Expiration | Volume | OI | IV | Bid | Ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CALL | $120.00 | Jan 21, 2028 | 149 | 260.5K | 16.8% | $0.45 | $0.50 |
| CALL | $105.00 | Jan 21, 2028 | 534 | 239.4K | 13.7% | $0.83 | $0.93 |
| CALL | $86.00 | Jul 10, 2026 | 3.7K | 70.8K | 8.2% | $0.10 | $0.11 |
| PUT | $86.00 | Jul 17, 2026 | 2.4K | 87.0K | 8.4% | $0.77 | $0.78 |
| CALL | $88.00 | Jul 17, 2026 | 7.0K | 154.6K | 10.7% | $0.04 | $0.05 |
| CALL | $88.50 | Jul 15, 2026 | 3.2K | 169 | 11.9% | $0.02 | $0.03 |
| CALL | $110.00 | Jan 15, 2027 | 581 | 142.3K | 17.7% | $0.10 | $0.12 |
| CALL | $86.00 | Jul 17, 2026 | 11.0K | 74.7K | 8.4% | $0.30 | $0.31 |
| CALL | $100.00 | Jan 15, 2027 | 299 | 125.6K | 13.8% | $0.21 | $0.23 |
| CALL | $86.00 | Aug 7, 2026 | 7.9K | 527 | 9.0% | $0.66 | $0.68 |
Top 10 contracts from the institutional-grade nightly options scan; ranked by iv within the broader S&P 500/400/600 + ETF universe.
Frequently asked TLT expected move questions
- What is the current TLT expected move?
- As of Jul 6, 2026, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) has an expected move of 2.57% over the next 32 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $83.24 to $87.62 from the current $85.43. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the TLT expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is TLT expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.