iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management - Bonds industry, with a market capitalization near $41.81B, listed on NASDAQ, carrying a beta of 2.37 to the broader market. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of U. public since 2002-07-30.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $83.65
- Expected Move
- 3.4%
- Implied High
- $86.52
- Implied Low
- $80.78
- Front DTE
- 28 days
As of May 15, 2026, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) has an expected move of 3.43%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $80.78 to $86.52 from the current $83.65. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
TLT Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF pricing an expected move of 3.43% from $83.65, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
How to read the TLT implied-range chart
The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 3.43%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $80.78 to $86.52. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.
TLT expected move and event pricing
Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. TLT term-structure is in backwardation (slope -0.001), so near-dated tenors price in disproportionate vol - usually because of a known event in the front-month window.
Sizing TLT structures to the expected move
Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. TLT put/call volume ratio currently at 1.72 indicates protective put flow dominates - look for hedged-money positioning into the move. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for TLT derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $83.65 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 18, 2026 | 3 | 10.2% | 0.9% | $84.42 | $82.88 |
| May 20, 2026 | 5 | 11.0% | 1.3% | $84.73 | $82.57 |
| May 22, 2026 | 7 | 11.3% | 1.6% | $84.96 | $82.34 |
| May 27, 2026 | 12 | 10.9% | 2.0% | $85.30 | $82.00 |
| May 29, 2026 | 14 | 11.6% | 2.3% | $85.55 | $81.75 |
| Jun 5, 2026 | 21 | 12.0% | 2.9% | $86.06 | $81.24 |
| Jun 12, 2026 | 28 | 12.0% | 3.3% | $86.43 | $80.87 |
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 11.9% | 3.6% | $86.69 | $80.61 |
| Jun 26, 2026 | 42 | 12.2% | 4.1% | $87.11 | $80.19 |
| Jun 30, 2026 | 46 | 11.8% | 4.2% | $87.15 | $80.15 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 12.2% | 5.1% | $87.89 | $79.41 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 98 | 12.4% | 6.4% | $89.02 | $78.28 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 126 | 12.4% | 7.3% | $89.74 | $77.56 |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 138 | 12.4% | 7.6% | $90.03 | $77.27 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 154 | 12.4% | 8.1% | $90.39 | $76.91 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 189 | 12.4% | 8.9% | $91.11 | $76.19 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 217 | 12.6% | 9.7% | $91.78 | $75.52 |
| Dec 31, 2026 | 230 | 12.5% | 9.9% | $91.95 | $75.35 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 245 | 12.5% | 10.2% | $92.22 | $75.08 |
| Feb 19, 2027 | 280 | 12.4% | 10.9% | $92.73 | $74.57 |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 308 | 12.4% | 11.4% | $93.18 | $74.12 |
| Mar 31, 2027 | 320 | 12.4% | 11.6% | $93.36 | $73.94 |
| Apr 16, 2027 | 336 | 12.4% | 11.9% | $93.60 | $73.70 |
| May 21, 2027 | 371 | 12.3% | 12.4% | $94.02 | $73.28 |
| Jun 17, 2027 | 398 | 12.5% | 13.1% | $94.57 | $72.73 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 616 | 12.7% | 16.5% | $97.45 | $69.85 |
TLT highest implied-volatility contracts
| Type | Strike | Expiration | Volume | OI | IV | Bid | Ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CALL | $79.00 | May 20, 2026 | 13.3K | 155 | 24.2% | $4.60 | $4.65 |
| CALL | $78.00 | May 20, 2026 | 12.2K | 155 | 24.2% | $5.55 | $5.65 |
| CALL | $77.00 | May 22, 2026 | 8.2K | 140 | 25.7% | $6.60 | $6.70 |
| PUT | $76.00 | Jul 17, 2026 | 35.1K | 675 | 17.4% | $0.22 | $0.23 |
| CALL | $76.00 | May 22, 2026 | 8.2K | 190 | 25.7% | $7.60 | $7.70 |
| PUT | $76.00 | Jul 17, 2026 | 35.1K | 675 | 17.4% | $0.22 | $0.23 |
| CALL | $110.00 | Jan 15, 2027 | 293 | 131.8K | 18.7% | $0.18 | $0.19 |
| CALL | $100.00 | Jan 15, 2027 | 5.3K | 126.6K | 15.1% | $0.30 | $0.32 |
| PUT | $80.00 | Jul 17, 2026 | 26.3K | 17.8K | 14.2% | $0.60 | $0.62 |
| PUT | $83.50 | May 22, 2026 | 4.5K | 41.1K | 13.5% | $0.39 | $0.41 |
Top 10 contracts from the institutional-grade nightly options scan; ranked by iv within the broader S&P 500/400/600 + ETF universe.
Frequently asked TLT expected move questions
- What is the current TLT expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) has an expected move of 3.43% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $80.78 to $86.52 from the current $83.65. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the TLT expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is TLT expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.