State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) Probability Analysis

Probability analysis extracts the risk-neutral probability distribution implied by option prices. It shows the market-implied likelihood of the underlying reaching various price levels by expiration.

Snapshot as of Apr 16, 2026.

Spot Price

$701.50

ATM IV

14.8%

Put/Call Ratio

1.04

As of Apr 16, 2026, State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) at $701.50 has an ATM IV of 14.8%, implying a 30-day one-standard-deviation range of approximately ±$29.83. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall within ±1σ and 95% within ±2σ. Real-world distributions have fatter tails — risk-neutral probability analysis corrects for that by extracting the market-implied distribution directly from options prices.