T-REX 2X Long MSTR Daily Target ETF (MSTU) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
T-REX 2X Long MSTR Daily Target ETF (MSTU) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management - Leveraged industry, with a market capitalization near $82.2M, listed on CBOE, carrying a beta of 4.78 to the broader market. This fund aims to provide twice the daily return of MSTR (MicroStrategy Inc. public since 2024-09-18.
Snapshot as of Sep 30, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $40.31
- Expected Move
- 36.7%
- Implied High
- $55.10
- Implied Low
- $25.52
- Front DTE
- 30 days
As of Sep 30, 2026, T-REX 2X Long MSTR Daily Target ETF (MSTU) has an expected move of 36.70%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $25.52 to $55.10 from the current $40.31. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
MSTU Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With T-REX 2X Long MSTR Daily Target ETF pricing an expected move of 36.70% from $40.31, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
How to read the MSTU implied-range chart
The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 36.70%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $25.52 to $55.10. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.
MSTU expected move and event pricing
Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. MSTU term-structure is in contango (slope 0.047), so longer-dated tenors price in proportionally more vol than √time scaling alone would suggest - typically because long-dated cycles include uncertain macro states.
Sizing MSTU structures to the expected move
Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. MSTU put/call volume ratio currently at 0.48 indicates speculative call flow dominates - look for upside-skewed sentiment. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for MSTU derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $40.31 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | 2 | 154.1% | 11.4% | $44.91 | $35.71 |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 9 | 126.5% | 19.9% | $48.32 | $32.30 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 16 | 126.4% | 26.5% | $50.98 | $29.64 |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 23 | 125.5% | 31.5% | $53.01 | $27.61 |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 30 | 128.0% | 36.7% | $55.10 | $25.52 |
| Nov 6, 2026 | 37 | 132.7% | 42.2% | $57.34 | $23.28 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 51 | 134.9% | 50.4% | $60.64 | $19.98 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 79 | 133.2% | 62.0% | $65.29 | $15.33 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 107 | 131.3% | 71.1% | $68.97 | $11.65 |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 170 | 135.3% | 92.3% | $77.53 | $3.09 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 478 | 138.3% | 158.3% | $104.11 | $-23.49 |
| Jan 19, 2029 | 842 | 137.6% | 209.0% | $124.55 | $-43.93 |
Frequently asked MSTU expected move questions
- What is the current MSTU expected move?
- As of Sep 30, 2026, T-REX 2X Long MSTR Daily Target ETF (MSTU) has an expected move of 36.70% over the next 30 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $25.52 to $55.10 from the current $40.31. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the MSTU expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is MSTU expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.