T-REX 2X Long MSTR Daily Target ETF (MSTU) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
T-REX 2X Long MSTR Daily Target ETF (MSTU) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management industry, with a market capitalization near $163.3M, listed on CBOE, carrying a beta of 4.39 to the broader market. The fund, under normal circumstances, invests in swap agreements that provide 200% daily exposure to MSTR equal to at least 80% of its net assets (plus any borrowings for investment purposes). public since 2024-09-18.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $7.86
- Expected Move
- 37.3%
- Implied High
- $10.79
- Implied Low
- $4.93
- Front DTE
- 28 days
As of May 15, 2026, T-REX 2X Long MSTR Daily Target ETF (MSTU) has an expected move of 37.31%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $4.93 to $10.79 from the current $7.86. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
MSTU Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With T-REX 2X Long MSTR Daily Target ETF pricing an expected move of 37.31% from $7.86, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for MSTU derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $7.86 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 22, 2026 | 7 | 125.7% | 17.4% | $9.23 | $6.49 |
| May 29, 2026 | 14 | 127.9% | 25.0% | $9.83 | $5.89 |
| Jun 5, 2026 | 21 | 124.2% | 29.8% | $10.20 | $5.52 |
| Jun 12, 2026 | 28 | 128.3% | 35.5% | $10.65 | $5.07 |
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 133.1% | 40.6% | $11.05 | $4.67 |
| Jun 26, 2026 | 42 | 139.8% | 47.4% | $11.59 | $4.13 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 137.1% | 57.0% | $12.34 | $3.38 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 126 | 151.8% | 89.2% | $14.87 | $0.85 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 217 | 152.6% | 117.7% | $17.11 | $-1.39 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 245 | 161.6% | 132.4% | $18.27 | $-2.55 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 616 | 176.8% | 229.7% | $25.91 | $-10.19 |
Frequently asked MSTU expected move questions
- What is the current MSTU expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, T-REX 2X Long MSTR Daily Target ETF (MSTU) has an expected move of 37.31% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $4.93 to $10.79 from the current $7.86. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the MSTU expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is MSTU expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.