What is the BUG 30-day expected price range?

As of Jul 16, 2026, with BUG at $40.63 and ATM IV at 39.9%, the implied 30-day one-standard-deviation range is approximately ±$4.65, or about $35.98 to $45.28. IV rank is elevated, so the priced distribution is wider than the 1-year typical width.

What does BUG risk-neutral density tell us?

Risk-neutral density is the probability distribution of future BUG price implied by listed option prices. Extracted via Breeden-Litzenberger (twice-differentiating the call price function with respect to strike), it represents the pricing kernel rather than the real-world probability of outcomes. Persistent skew or fat-tail features in the density reflect how the market is pricing tail risk.

How does BUG ATM IV translate to a probability range?

ATM IV is annualized; multiplying by sqrt(t/365) scales it to the chosen tenor. Under lognormal assumptions, the resulting standard deviation defines the ±1σ band that contains roughly 68% of outcomes, ±2σ for 95%. Empirical equity returns have fatter tails than log-normal, so the implied tail probabilities under-state realized tail frequency in stressed regimes.

Global X - Cybersecurity ETF (BUG) Probability Analysis

Probability analysis extracts the risk-neutral probability distribution implied by option prices. It shows the market-implied likelihood of the underlying reaching various price levels by expiration.

Global X - Cybersecurity ETF (BUG) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management - Global industry, with a market capitalization near $928.5M, listed on NASDAQ, carrying a beta of 1.15 to the broader market. The Global X Cybersecurity ETF, trading under the symbol BUG, is designed to closely mirror the total financial returns of the Indxx Cybersecurity Index. public since 2019-11-01.

Snapshot as of Jul 16, 2026.

Spot Price: $40.63
ATM IV: 39.9%
IV Rank: 75.2%
IV Percentile: 79.4%
HV 20-Day: 40.3%
IV Skew 25Δ: 0.006

As of Jul 16, 2026, Global X - Cybersecurity ETF (BUG) at $40.63 has an ATM IV of 39.9%, implying a 30-day one-standard-deviation range of approximately ±$4.65. IV rank is 75.2% (elevated, distribution priced wider than typical). IV percentile is 79.4%. The 25-delta skew is +0.006: roughly symmetric wings. Under lognormal assumptions roughly 68% of outcomes fall within ±1σ and 95% within ±2σ; risk-neutral probability analysis refines this by extracting the market-implied distribution directly from options prices, capturing the fat tails that real markets exhibit.

How BUG probability analysis Data Feeds Strategy Selection

Strategy selection on Global X - Cybersecurity ETF options does not derive from any single metric in isolation. The probability analysis view above sits inside a broader read: ATM IV currently sits at 39.9% and dealer gamma exposure is positive, so dealer hedging is mechanically mean-reverting. Combine the probability analysis data here with the volatility-skew surface, dealer-gamma exposure, max-pain level, and upcoming-events calendar to build a positioning thesis. Risk-defined structures (credit spreads, debit spreads, iron condors) are usually safer than naked positions while the regime is uncertain; the data on this page anchors the inputs but does not by itself constitute a trade thesis.

How to read the BUG probability distribution

The probability cone above is the option-market-implied distribution of where Global X - Cybersecurity ETF spot could end up at expiration. It's derived from the implied-volatility surface via a risk-neutral pricing transformation, not from historical realized returns. With ATM IV at 39.9% and spot at $40.63, the 1σ band is approximately ±13.8% over a 30-day horizon. Recent realized HV-20 of 40.3% runs 0.4 vol points above current implied, an inverted regime where premium buyers are underpaying.

BUG risk-neutral vs real-world probabilities

The probabilities derived from option prices reflect the market's risk-adjusted view, not the realized statistical distribution. Risk-neutral probabilities include the equity risk premium and skew preferences priced into options, so they tend to overstate tail probability and understate upside drift relative to actually-realized outcomes. For probability-of-touch calculations and assignment-risk modeling, risk-neutral is the right benchmark. For position-sizing your own conviction, blend with realized-volatility-based statistics from the HV columns.

Trading the BUG distribution

Probability-driven strategies aim to capture mispricings between the implied distribution and your own probability assessment. Premium-selling structures (credit spreads, iron condors, cash-secured puts) profit when the implied distribution overprices tail probability relative to realized; premium-buying (debit spreads, long calls/puts, long straddles) profits in the reverse. With BUG IV rank at 75.2%, the chain is pricing fatter tails than recent realized history; sellers earn the gap on average. Always pair probability-driven strategy selection with a stop loss or wing-defined risk - the implied distribution is a snapshot, and regime shifts can invalidate it intraday.

Learn how risk-neutral density is reported and how to read the data →

Frequently asked BUG probability analysis questions

What is the BUG 30-day expected price range?: As of Jul 16, 2026, with BUG at $40.63 and ATM IV at 39.9%, the implied 30-day one-standard-deviation range is approximately ±$4.65, or about $35.98 to $45.28. IV rank is elevated, so the priced distribution is wider than the 1-year typical width.
What does BUG risk-neutral density tell us?: Risk-neutral density is the probability distribution of future BUG price implied by listed option prices. Extracted via Breeden-Litzenberger (twice-differentiating the call price function with respect to strike), it represents the pricing kernel rather than the real-world probability of outcomes. Persistent skew or fat-tail features in the density reflect how the market is pricing tail risk.
How does BUG ATM IV translate to a probability range?: ATM IV is annualized; multiplying by sqrt(t/365) scales it to the chosen tenor. Under lognormal assumptions, the resulting standard deviation defines the ±1σ band that contains roughly 68% of outcomes, ±2σ for 95%. Empirical equity returns have fatter tails than log-normal, so the implied tail probabilities under-state realized tail frequency in stressed regimes.