Global X - Cybersecurity ETF (BUG) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Global X - Cybersecurity ETF (BUG) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management industry, with a market capitalization near $873.5M, listed on NASDAQ, carrying a beta of 0.79 to the broader market. The Global X Cybersecurity ETF (BUG) seeks to provide investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the Indxx Cybersecurity Index. public since 2019-11-01.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $31.69
- Expected Move
- 9.9%
- Implied High
- $34.82
- Implied Low
- $28.56
- Front DTE
- 34 days
As of May 15, 2026, Global X - Cybersecurity ETF (BUG) has an expected move of 9.86%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $28.56 to $34.82 from the current $31.69. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
BUG Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Global X - Cybersecurity ETF pricing an expected move of 9.86% from $31.69, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for BUG derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $31.69 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 34.4% | 10.5% | $35.02 | $28.36 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 33.1% | 13.8% | $36.05 | $27.33 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 126 | 35.5% | 20.9% | $38.30 | $25.08 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 217 | 37.4% | 28.8% | $40.83 | $22.55 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 245 | 35.7% | 29.2% | $40.96 | $22.42 |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 308 | 37.2% | 34.2% | $42.52 | $20.86 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 616 | 36.4% | 47.3% | $46.68 | $16.70 |
Frequently asked BUG expected move questions
- What is the current BUG expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, Global X - Cybersecurity ETF (BUG) has an expected move of 9.86% over the next 34 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $28.56 to $34.82 from the current $31.69. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the BUG expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is BUG expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.