What is the current BUG expected move?

As of Oct 14, 2026, Global X - Cybersecurity ETF (BUG) has an expected move of 10.72% over the next 37 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $41.65 to $51.65 from the current $46.65. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the BUG expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is BUG expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

Global X - Cybersecurity ETF (BUG) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

Global X - Cybersecurity ETF (BUG) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management - Global industry, with a market capitalization near $1.10B, listed on NASDAQ, carrying a beta of 1.13 to the broader market. The Global X Cybersecurity ETF, trading under the symbol BUG, is designed to closely mirror the total financial returns of the Indxx Cybersecurity Index. public since 2019-11-01.

Snapshot as of Oct 14, 2026.

Spot Price: $46.65
Expected Move: 10.7%
Implied High: $51.65
Implied Low: $41.65
Front DTE: 37 days

As of Oct 14, 2026, Global X - Cybersecurity ETF (BUG) has an expected move of 10.72%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $41.65 to $51.65 from the current $46.65. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

BUG Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With Global X - Cybersecurity ETF pricing an expected move of 10.72% from $46.65, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the BUG implied-range chart

The shaded range below shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 10.72%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $41.65 to $51.65. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

BUG expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. BUG term-structure is in contango (slope 0.007), so longer-dated tenors price in proportionally more vol than √time scaling alone would suggest - typically because long-dated cycles include uncertain macro states.

Sizing BUG structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. BUG put/call volume ratio currently at 2.00 indicates protective put flow dominates - look for hedged-money positioning into the move. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for BUG derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $46.65 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Oct 16, 2026	2	48.2%	3.6%	$48.31	$44.99
Nov 20, 2026	37	37.4%	11.9%	$52.20	$41.10
Dec 18, 2026	65	38.1%	16.1%	$54.15	$39.15
Jan 15, 2027	93	37.3%	18.8%	$55.43	$37.87
Mar 19, 2027	156	36.5%	23.9%	$57.78	$35.52
Apr 16, 2027	184	36.4%	25.8%	$58.71	$34.59
Jan 21, 2028	464	39.8%	44.9%	$67.58	$25.72
Jan 19, 2029	828	38.5%	58.0%	$73.70	$19.60

Frequently asked BUG expected move questions

What is the current BUG expected move?: As of Oct 14, 2026, Global X - Cybersecurity ETF (BUG) has an expected move of 10.72% over the next 37 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $41.65 to $51.65 from the current $46.65. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the BUG expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is BUG expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.