Zillow Group, Inc. Class C (Z) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Zillow Group, Inc. Class C (Z) operates in the Communication Services sector, specifically the Internet Content & Information industry, with a market capitalization near $6.52B, listed on NASDAQ, employing roughly 7,068 people, carrying a beta of 2.00 to the broader market. Zillow Group, Inc. Led by Jeremy Wacksman, public since 2015-08-03.
Snapshot as of Sep 30, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $27.39
- Expected Move
- 15.7%
- Implied High
- $31.69
- Implied Low
- $23.09
- Front DTE
- 16 days
As of Sep 30, 2026, Zillow Group, Inc. Class C (Z) has an expected move of 15.68%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $23.09 to $31.69 from the current $27.39. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
Z Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Zillow Group, Inc. Class C pricing an expected move of 15.68% from $27.39, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
How to read the Z implied-range chart
The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 15.68%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $23.09 to $31.69. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.
Z expected move and event pricing
Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. Z term-structure is in contango (slope 0.083), so longer-dated tenors price in proportionally more vol than √time scaling alone would suggest - typically because long-dated cycles include uncertain macro states.
Sizing Z structures to the expected move
Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. Z put/call volume ratio currently at 0.75 indicates balanced flow without strong directional skew. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for Z derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $27.39 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 16 | 54.7% | 11.5% | $30.53 | $24.25 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 51 | 63.0% | 23.5% | $33.84 | $20.94 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 79 | 59.3% | 27.6% | $34.95 | $19.83 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 107 | 57.5% | 31.1% | $35.92 | $18.86 |
| Feb 19, 2027 | 142 | 59.3% | 37.0% | $37.52 | $17.26 |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 170 | 58.0% | 39.6% | $38.23 | $16.55 |
| May 21, 2027 | 233 | 58.1% | 46.4% | $40.10 | $14.68 |
| Jun 17, 2027 | 260 | 57.8% | 48.8% | $40.75 | $14.03 |
| Sep 17, 2027 | 352 | 56.8% | 55.8% | $42.67 | $12.11 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 478 | 57.2% | 65.5% | $45.32 | $9.46 |
| Jan 19, 2029 | 842 | 57.1% | 86.7% | $51.14 | $3.64 |
Frequently asked Z expected move questions
- What is the current Z expected move?
- As of Sep 30, 2026, Zillow Group, Inc. Class C (Z) has an expected move of 15.68% over the next 16 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $23.09 to $31.69 from the current $27.39. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the Z expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is Z expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.