What is the current Z expected move?

As of Aug 14, 2026, Zillow Group, Inc. Class C (Z) has an expected move of 14.51% over the next 35 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $29.74 to $39.84 from the current $34.79. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the Z expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is Z expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

Zillow Group, Inc. Class C (Z) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

Zillow Group, Inc. Class C (Z) operates in the Communication Services sector, specifically the Internet Content & Information industry, with a market capitalization near $7.99B, listed on NASDAQ, employing roughly 7,068 people, carrying a beta of 1.98 to the broader market. Zillow Group, Inc. Led by Jeremy Wacksman, public since 2015-08-03.

Snapshot as of Aug 14, 2026.

Spot Price: $34.79
Expected Move: 14.5%
Implied High: $39.84
Implied Low: $29.74
Front DTE: 35 days

As of Aug 14, 2026, Zillow Group, Inc. Class C (Z) has an expected move of 14.51%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $29.74 to $39.84 from the current $34.79. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

Z Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With Zillow Group, Inc. Class C pricing an expected move of 14.51% from $34.79, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the Z implied-range chart

The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 14.51%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $29.74 to $39.84. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

Z expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. Z term-structure is in contango (slope 0.077), so longer-dated tenors price in proportionally more vol than √time scaling alone would suggest - typically because long-dated cycles include uncertain macro states. With IV rank at 28.7%, the implied move is at the low end of the typical Z range - cheap optionality for buyers, thin premium for sellers.

Sizing Z structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. Z put/call volume ratio currently at 1.79 indicates protective put flow dominates - look for hedged-money positioning into the move. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for Z derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $34.79 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Aug 21, 2026	7	49.6%	6.9%	$37.18	$32.40
Sep 18, 2026	35	50.6%	15.7%	$40.24	$29.34
Nov 20, 2026	98	58.3%	30.2%	$45.30	$24.28
Dec 18, 2026	126	57.3%	33.7%	$46.50	$23.08
Jan 15, 2027	154	56.1%	36.4%	$47.47	$22.11
Feb 19, 2027	189	59.1%	42.5%	$49.59	$19.99
Mar 19, 2027	217	59.5%	45.9%	$50.75	$18.83
Jun 17, 2027	307	57.9%	53.1%	$53.26	$16.32
Jan 21, 2028	525	60.0%	72.0%	$59.82	$9.76

Frequently asked Z expected move questions

What is the current Z expected move?: As of Aug 14, 2026, Zillow Group, Inc. Class C (Z) has an expected move of 14.51% over the next 35 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $29.74 to $39.84 from the current $34.79. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the Z expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is Z expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.