How are XPO butterfly max profit and max loss calculated?

Max profit equals the wing width minus net debit times 100 (reached when the underlying pins the middle strike); max loss equals the net debit times 100. Two breakevens at lower-wing plus debit and upper-wing minus debit. For the XPO butterfly priced from the end-of-day chain at a 30-day expiry (ATM IV 46.10%), the computed maximum profit is $670.97 per contract and the computed maximum loss is -$255.00 per contract. Live intraday quotes will differ as the chain moves through the trading session.

What is the breakeven for a XPO butterfly?

The breakeven for the XPO butterfly priced on this page is roughly $207.45 at expiration, derived from end-of-day chain premiums. Breakeven is the underlying price at which the strategy's P&L crosses zero ignoring transaction costs and assignment risk. The current XPO market-implied 1-standard-deviation expected move is approximately 13.22%; if the move sits well outside the breakeven distance, the structure's risk-reward becomes correspondingly tighter.

How does current XPO implied volatility affect this butterfly?

XPO ATM IV is at 46.10% with IV rank near 40.90%, which is mid-range against its 1-year history. Strategy selection depends more on directional thesis and expected move than on a strong IV signal.

XPO Butterfly Strategy

XPO (XPO Logistics, Inc.), in the Industrials sector, (Integrated Freight & Logistics industry), listed on NYSE.

XPO Logistics, Inc. provides freight transportation services in the United States, rest of North America, France, the United Kingdom, rest of Europe, and internationally. The company operates in two segments, North American LTL and Brokerage and Other Services. The North American LTL segment provides customers with less-than-truckload (LTL) services, such as geographic density and day-definite regional, inter-regional, and transcontinental LTL freight services. This segment also offers cross-border U.S. service to and from Mexico and Canada, as well as intra-Canada service. The Brokerage and Other Services segment offers last mile logistics for heavy goods sold through e-commerce, omnichannel retail, and direct-to-consumer channels, as well as other non-core brokered freight transportation modes. It provides its services to customers in various industries, such as industrial and manufacturing, retail and e-commerce, food and beverage, logistics and transportation, and consumer goods.

XPO (XPO Logistics, Inc.) trades in the Industrials sector, specifically Integrated Freight & Logistics, with a market capitalization of approximately $23.28B, a trailing P/E of 66.66, a beta of 1.67 versus the broader market, a 52-week range of 110.78-231.46, average daily share volume of 1.5M, a public-listing history dating back to 2003, approximately 38K full-time employees. These structural characteristics shape how XPO stock options price implied volatility around earnings windows, capital events, and macro-driven sector rotations.

A beta of 1.67 indicates XPO has historically moved more than the broader market, amplifying both the directional payoff and the realized volatility relative to an index-equivalent position. The trailing P/E of 66.66 is on the rich side, which tends to correlate with higher earnings-window IV expansion as the market debates whether forward growth supports the multiple.

What is a butterfly on XPO?

A long call butterfly buys one lower-strike call, sells two ATM calls, and buys one higher-strike call, paying a small net debit for a defined-risk position that maxes out if the underlying pins the middle strike at expiration.

Current XPO snapshot

As of May 15, 2026, spot at $204.39, ATM IV 46.10%, IV rank 40.90%, expected move 13.22%. The butterfly on XPO below is built from the same end-of-day chain, with strikes snapped to listed contracts and premiums pulled from the bid/ask midpoint at a 34-day expiry.

Why this butterfly structure on XPO specifically: XPO IV at 46.10% is mid-range versus its 1-year history, so strategy selection should anchor more to the directional thesis than to the IV regime, with a market-implied 1-standard-deviation move of approximately 13.22% (roughly $27.01 on the underlying). The 34-day window matched to the front-month expiry keeps theta exposure bounded while still capturing the post-snapshot move; longer-dated XPO expiries trade a higher absolute premium for lower per-day decay. Position sizing on XPO should anchor to the underlying notional of $204.39 per share and to the trader's directional view on XPO stock.

XPO butterfly setup

The XPO butterfly below is built from the end-of-day chain, with each option leg priced at the bid/ask midpoint of its listed strike. With XPO near $204.39, the first option leg uses a $195.00 strike; additional legs (when the strategy has them) anchor to spot-relative offsets. Premiums come from the bid/ask midpoint on the listed XPO chain at a 34-day expiry; the cross-strike IV skew is reflected directly in the per-leg values rather than approximated. Quantity sizing assumes one contract per option leg (or 100 XPO shares for the stock leg in covered calls and collars).

Action	Type	Strike / Basis	Premium (est)
Buy 1	Call	$195.00	$16.75
Sell 2	Call	$200.00	$14.05
Buy 1	Call	$210.00	$8.90

XPO butterfly risk and reward

Net Premium / Debit: +$245.00
Max Profit (per contract): $670.97
Max Loss (per contract): -$255.00
Breakeven(s): $207.45
Risk / Reward Ratio: 2.631

Max profit equals the wing width minus net debit times 100 (reached when the underlying pins the middle strike); max loss equals the net debit times 100. Two breakevens at lower-wing plus debit and upper-wing minus debit.

XPO butterfly payoff curve

Modeled P&L at expiration across a range of underlying prices for the butterfly on XPO. Each row is one sampled price point from the computed payoff curve; the full curve uses 200 price points internally before being summarized into 10 rows here.

Underlying Price	% From Spot	P&L at Expiration
$0.01	-100.0%	+$245.00
$45.20	-77.9%	+$245.00
$90.39	-55.8%	+$245.00
$135.58	-33.7%	+$245.00
$180.77	-11.6%	+$245.00
$225.96	+10.6%	-$255.00
$271.15	+32.7%	-$255.00
$316.34	+54.8%	-$255.00
$361.54	+76.9%	-$255.00
$406.73	+99.0%	-$255.00

When traders use butterfly on XPO

Butterflies on XPO are pinning bets - traders use them when they expect XPO to settle near a specific level at expiration (often the prior close, a round number, or the max-pain strike) and want defined-risk exposure to that outcome.

XPO thesis for this butterfly

The market-implied 1-standard-deviation range for XPO extends from approximately $177.38 on the downside to $231.40 on the upside. A XPO long call butterfly is a pinning play: it pays maximum at the middle strike if XPO settles there at expiration, with the wing legs capping both the cost and the maximum loss to the net debit. Current XPO IV rank near 40.90% is mid-range against its 1-year distribution, so the IV signal is neutral; the butterfly thesis on XPO should anchor more to the directional view and the expected-move geometry. As a Industrials name, XPO options can move on sector-level news flow (peer earnings, regulatory updates, industry-specific macro data) in addition to XPO-specific events.

XPO butterfly positions are structurally neutral / pin (limited-risk, limited-reward); the modeled P&L assumes European-style exercise at expiration and ignores early assignment, transaction costs, dividends paid before expiry on the stock leg (when present), and the bid-ask spread on the listed chain. XPO positions also carry Industrials sector concentration risk; news flow inside the sector (peer earnings, regulatory shifts, supply-chain headlines) can move XPO alongside the broader basket even when XPO-specific fundamentals are unchanged. Always rebuild the position from current XPO chain quotes before placing a trade.

Frequently asked questions

What is a butterfly on XPO?: A butterfly on XPO is the butterfly strategy applied to XPO (stock). The strategy is structurally neutral / pin (limited-risk, limited-reward): A long call butterfly buys one lower-strike call, sells two ATM calls, and buys one higher-strike call, paying a small net debit for a defined-risk position that maxes out if the underlying pins the middle strike at expiration. With XPO stock trading near $204.39, the strikes shown on this page are snapped to the nearest listed XPO chain strike and the premiums come straight from the end-of-day bid/ask midpoint.
How are XPO butterfly max profit and max loss calculated?: Max profit equals the wing width minus net debit times 100 (reached when the underlying pins the middle strike); max loss equals the net debit times 100. Two breakevens at lower-wing plus debit and upper-wing minus debit. For the XPO butterfly priced from the end-of-day chain at a 30-day expiry (ATM IV 46.10%), the computed maximum profit is $670.97 per contract and the computed maximum loss is -$255.00 per contract. Live intraday quotes will differ as the chain moves through the trading session.
What is the breakeven for a XPO butterfly?: The breakeven for the XPO butterfly priced on this page is roughly $207.45 at expiration, derived from end-of-day chain premiums. Breakeven is the underlying price at which the strategy's P&L crosses zero ignoring transaction costs and assignment risk. The current XPO market-implied 1-standard-deviation expected move is approximately 13.22%; if the move sits well outside the breakeven distance, the structure's risk-reward becomes correspondingly tighter.
When should you consider a butterfly on XPO?: Butterflies on XPO are pinning bets - traders use them when they expect XPO to settle near a specific level at expiration (often the prior close, a round number, or the max-pain strike) and want defined-risk exposure to that outcome.
How does current XPO implied volatility affect this butterfly?: XPO ATM IV is at 46.10% with IV rank near 40.90%, which is mid-range against its 1-year history. Strategy selection depends more on directional thesis and expected move than on a strong IV signal.