XP Butterfly Strategy
XP (XP Inc.), in the Financial Services sector, (Financial - Capital Markets industry), listed on NASDAQ.
XP Inc. provides financial products and services in Brazil. The company operates XP Platform, an open product platform that provides clients to access investment products in the market comprising brokerage securities, fixed income securities, mutual, hedge, and private equity funds; derivatives and synthetic instruments; credit cards; loan operations/collateralized credit products; pension and social security funds, and life and travel insurance products; and other investment products comprising real estate funds, and equity and debt capital markets solutions, as well as wealth management services. It offers brokerage and issuer services to institutional and corporate clients. The company also manages mutual funds focused on stocks and macro strategies distributed to retail and to institutional clients; funds and managed portfolios for high-net-worth retail clients, and proprietary treasury funds; and passive mutual funds that track market indexes, and mutual and investment funds focused on fixed income, credit, real estate, infrastructure, and other alternative strategies. In addition, it offers securities brokerage services for institutional and retail investors; interdealer brokerage services for institutional traders; and commercial and investment banking products, such as loan operations and transactions in the foreign exchange markets and deposits, as well as develops and sells financial education courses and events online and in person to retail clients. The company offers its sell products and services through its omni-channel distribution network and online portals.
XP (XP Inc.) trades in the Financial Services sector, specifically Financial - Capital Markets, with a market capitalization of approximately $8.44B, a trailing P/E of 8.37, a beta of 1.12 versus the broader market, a 52-week range of 14.8-23.13, average daily share volume of 5.6M, a public-listing history dating back to 2019, approximately 7K full-time employees. These structural characteristics shape how XP stock options price implied volatility around earnings windows, capital events, and macro-driven sector rotations.
A beta of 1.12 places XP roughly in line with broader market moves, so the strategy payoff and realized volatility track the index-equivalent baseline. The trailing P/E of 8.37 is on the value side, where IV often compresses outside event windows because forward growth expectations are already discounted into the share price. XP pays a dividend, which adjusts put-call parity and shifts the ex-dividend pricing across the listed chain.
What is a butterfly on XP?
A long call butterfly buys one lower-strike call, sells two ATM calls, and buys one higher-strike call, paying a small net debit for a defined-risk position that maxes out if the underlying pins the middle strike at expiration.
Current XP snapshot
As of June 30, 2026, spot at $16.30, ATM IV 44.34%, IV rank 25.81%, expected move 12.71%. The butterfly on XP below is built from the same end-of-day chain, with strikes snapped to listed contracts and premiums pulled from the bid/ask midpoint at a 31-day expiry.
Why this butterfly structure on XP specifically: XP IV at 44.34% is on the cheap side of its 1-year range, which favors premium-buying structures like a XP butterfly, with a market-implied 1-standard-deviation move of approximately 12.71% (roughly $2.07 on the underlying). The 31-day window matched to the front-month expiry keeps theta exposure bounded while still capturing the post-snapshot move; longer-dated XP expiries trade a higher absolute premium for lower per-day decay. Position sizing on XP should anchor to the underlying notional of $16.30 per share and to the trader's directional view on XP stock.
XP butterfly setup
The XP butterfly below is built from the end-of-day chain, with each option leg priced at the bid/ask midpoint of its listed strike. With XP near $16.30, the first option leg uses a $15.00 strike; additional legs (when the strategy has them) anchor to spot-relative offsets. Premiums come from the bid/ask midpoint on the listed XP chain at a 31-day expiry; the cross-strike IV skew is reflected directly in the per-leg values rather than approximated. Quantity sizing assumes one contract per option leg (or 100 XP shares for the stock leg in covered calls and collars).
| Action | Type | Strike / Basis | Premium (est) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy 1 | Call | $15.00 | $1.53 |
| Sell 2 | Call | $16.00 | $1.03 |
| Buy 1 | Call | $17.00 | $0.58 |
XP butterfly risk and reward
- Net Premium / Debit
- -$5.00
- Max Profit (per contract)
- $89.07
- Max Loss (per contract)
- -$5.00
- Breakeven(s)
- $15.02, $16.97
- Risk / Reward Ratio
- 17.813
Max profit equals the wing width minus net debit times 100 (reached when the underlying pins the middle strike); max loss equals the net debit times 100. Two breakevens at lower-wing plus debit and upper-wing minus debit.
XP butterfly payoff curve
Modeled P&L at expiration across a range of underlying prices for the butterfly on XP. Each row is one sampled price point from the computed payoff curve; the full curve uses 200 price points internally before being summarized into 10 rows here.
| Underlying Price | % From Spot | P&L at Expiration |
|---|---|---|
| $0.01 | -99.9% | -$5.00 |
| $3.61 | -77.8% | -$5.00 |
| $7.22 | -55.7% | -$5.00 |
| $10.82 | -33.6% | -$5.00 |
| $14.42 | -11.5% | -$5.00 |
| $18.02 | +10.6% | -$5.00 |
| $21.63 | +32.7% | -$5.00 |
| $25.23 | +54.8% | -$5.00 |
| $28.83 | +76.9% | -$5.00 |
| $32.44 | +99.0% | -$5.00 |
When traders use butterfly on XP
Butterflies on XP are pinning bets - traders use them when they expect XP to settle near a specific level at expiration (often the prior close, a round number, or the max-pain strike) and want defined-risk exposure to that outcome.
XP thesis for this butterfly
The market-implied 1-standard-deviation range for XP extends from approximately $14.23 on the downside to $18.37 on the upside. A XP long call butterfly is a pinning play: it pays maximum at the middle strike if XP settles there at expiration, with the wing legs capping both the cost and the maximum loss to the net debit. Current XP IV rank near 25.81% sits in the lower third of its 1-year distribution, where IV often re-expands toward the mean; this favors premium-buying structures and disadvantages premium-selling structures on XP at 44.34%. As a Financial Services name, XP options can move on sector-level news flow (peer earnings, regulatory updates, industry-specific macro data) in addition to XP-specific events.
XP butterfly positions are structurally neutral / pin (limited-risk, limited-reward); the modeled P&L assumes European-style exercise at expiration and ignores early assignment, transaction costs, dividends paid before expiry on the stock leg (when present), and the bid-ask spread on the listed chain. XP positions also carry Financial Services sector concentration risk; news flow inside the sector (peer earnings, regulatory shifts, supply-chain headlines) can move XP alongside the broader basket even when XP-specific fundamentals are unchanged. Always rebuild the position from current XP chain quotes before placing a trade.
Frequently asked questions
- What is a butterfly on XP?
- A butterfly on XP is the butterfly strategy applied to XP (stock). The strategy is structurally neutral / pin (limited-risk, limited-reward): A long call butterfly buys one lower-strike call, sells two ATM calls, and buys one higher-strike call, paying a small net debit for a defined-risk position that maxes out if the underlying pins the middle strike at expiration. With XP stock trading near $16.30, the strikes shown on this page are snapped to the nearest listed XP chain strike and the premiums come straight from the end-of-day bid/ask midpoint.
- How are XP butterfly max profit and max loss calculated?
- Max profit equals the wing width minus net debit times 100 (reached when the underlying pins the middle strike); max loss equals the net debit times 100. Two breakevens at lower-wing plus debit and upper-wing minus debit. For the XP butterfly priced from the end-of-day chain at a 30-day expiry (ATM IV 44.34%), the computed maximum profit is $89.07 per contract and the computed maximum loss is -$5.00 per contract. Live intraday quotes will differ as the chain moves through the trading session.
- What is the breakeven for a XP butterfly?
- The breakeven for the XP butterfly priced on this page is roughly $15.02 and $16.97 at expiration, derived from end-of-day chain premiums. Breakeven is the underlying price at which the strategy's P&L crosses zero ignoring transaction costs and assignment risk. The current XP market-implied 1-standard-deviation expected move is approximately 12.71%; if the move sits well outside the breakeven distance, the structure's risk-reward becomes correspondingly tighter.
- When should you consider a butterfly on XP?
- Butterflies on XP are pinning bets - traders use them when they expect XP to settle near a specific level at expiration (often the prior close, a round number, or the max-pain strike) and want defined-risk exposure to that outcome.
- How does current XP implied volatility affect this butterfly?
- XP ATM IV is at 44.34% with IV rank near 25.81%, which is on the low end of its 1-year range. Premium-buying structures (long call, long put, debit spreads) are relatively cheap in this regime; premium-selling structures collect less credit per unit risk.