Xanadu Quantum Technologies Limited Class B Subordinate Voting Shares (XNDU) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Xanadu Quantum Technologies Limited Class B Subordinate Voting Shares (XNDU) operates in the Technology sector, specifically the Software - Infrastructure industry, with a market capitalization near $337.1M, listed on NASDAQ, employing roughly 3 people, carrying a beta of 2.76 to the broader market. Xanadu Quantum Technologies Inc. Led by Christian Weedbrook, public since 2026-03-27.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $13.71
- Expected Move
- 44.0%
- Implied High
- $19.74
- Implied Low
- $7.68
- Front DTE
- 28 days
As of May 15, 2026, Xanadu Quantum Technologies Limited Class B Subordinate Voting Shares (XNDU) has an expected move of 43.97%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $7.68 to $19.74 from the current $13.71. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
XNDU Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Xanadu Quantum Technologies Limited Class B Subordinate Voting Shares pricing an expected move of 43.97% from $13.71, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for XNDU derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $13.71 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 22, 2026 | 7 | 156.4% | 21.7% | $16.68 | $10.74 |
| May 29, 2026 | 14 | 155.5% | 30.5% | $17.89 | $9.53 |
| Jun 5, 2026 | 21 | 177.9% | 42.7% | $19.56 | $7.86 |
| Jun 12, 2026 | 28 | 157.0% | 43.5% | $19.67 | $7.75 |
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 147.2% | 44.9% | $19.87 | $7.55 |
| Jun 26, 2026 | 42 | 151.7% | 51.5% | $20.77 | $6.65 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 142.4% | 59.2% | $21.82 | $5.60 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 154 | 132.3% | 85.9% | $25.49 | $1.93 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 245 | 125.8% | 103.1% | $27.84 | $-0.42 |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 308 | 127.1% | 116.8% | $29.72 | $-2.30 |
Frequently asked XNDU expected move questions
- What is the current XNDU expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, Xanadu Quantum Technologies Limited Class B Subordinate Voting Shares (XNDU) has an expected move of 43.97% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $7.68 to $19.74 from the current $13.71. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the XNDU expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is XNDU expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.