W&T Offshore, Inc. (WTI) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
W&T Offshore, Inc. (WTI) operates in the Energy sector, specifically the Oil & Gas Exploration & Production industry, with a market capitalization near $654.6M, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 400 people, carrying a beta of 0.29 to the broader market. W&T Offshore, Inc. Led by Tracy W. Krohn, public since 2005-01-28.
Snapshot as of May 14, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $4.46
- Expected Move
- 25.0%
- Implied High
- $5.57
- Implied Low
- $3.35
- Front DTE
- 35 days
As of May 14, 2026, W&T Offshore, Inc. (WTI) has an expected move of 25.00%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $3.35 to $5.57 from the current $4.46. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
WTI Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With W&T Offshore, Inc. pricing an expected move of 25.00% from $4.46, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for WTI derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $4.46 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15, 2026 | 1 | 64.1% | 3.4% | $4.61 | $4.31 |
| Jun 18, 2026 | 35 | 87.2% | 27.0% | $5.66 | $3.26 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 64 | 87.7% | 36.7% | $6.10 | $2.82 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 155 | 89.7% | 58.5% | $7.07 | $1.85 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 246 | 89.6% | 73.6% | $7.74 | $1.18 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 617 | 83.2% | 108.2% | $9.28 | $-0.36 |
Frequently asked WTI expected move questions
- What is the current WTI expected move?
- As of May 14, 2026, W&T Offshore, Inc. (WTI) has an expected move of 25.00% over the next 35 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $3.35 to $5.57 from the current $4.46. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the WTI expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is WTI expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.