What is the current WSM expected move?

As of Sep 30, 2026, Williams-Sonoma, Inc. (WSM) has an expected move of 10.12% over the next 16 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $205.86 to $252.22 from the current $229.04. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the WSM expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is WSM expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

Williams-Sonoma, Inc. (WSM) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

Williams-Sonoma, Inc. (WSM) operates in the Consumer Cyclical sector, specifically the Specialty Retail industry, with a market capitalization near $26.86B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 19,800 people, carrying a beta of 1.46 to the broader market. Williams-Sonoma, Inc. Led by Laura J. Alber, public since 1983-07-07.

Snapshot as of Sep 30, 2026.

Spot Price: $229.04
Expected Move: 10.1%
Implied High: $252.22
Implied Low: $205.86
Front DTE: 16 days

As of Sep 30, 2026, Williams-Sonoma, Inc. (WSM) has an expected move of 10.12%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $205.86 to $252.22 from the current $229.04. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

WSM Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With Williams-Sonoma, Inc. pricing an expected move of 10.12% from $229.04, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the WSM implied-range chart

The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 10.12%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $205.86 to $252.22. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

WSM expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. WSM term-structure is in contango (slope 0.064), so longer-dated tenors price in proportionally more vol than √time scaling alone would suggest - typically because long-dated cycles include uncertain macro states. With IV rank at 8.2%, the implied move is at the low end of the typical WSM range - cheap optionality for buyers, thin premium for sellers.

Sizing WSM structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. WSM put/call volume ratio currently at 3.46 indicates protective put flow dominates - look for hedged-money positioning into the move. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for WSM derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $229.04 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Oct 16, 2026	16	35.3%	7.4%	$245.97	$212.11
Nov 20, 2026	51	41.7%	15.6%	$264.74	$193.34
Dec 18, 2026	79	40.4%	18.8%	$272.09	$185.99
Jan 15, 2027	107	38.8%	21.0%	$277.16	$180.92
Feb 19, 2027	142	38.6%	24.1%	$284.18	$173.90
Mar 19, 2027	170	40.5%	27.6%	$292.35	$165.73
May 21, 2027	233	40.3%	32.2%	$302.79	$155.29
Jun 17, 2027	260	40.8%	34.4%	$307.91	$150.17
Sep 17, 2027	352	40.9%	40.2%	$321.03	$137.05
Jan 21, 2028	478	40.6%	46.5%	$335.46	$122.62
Jan 19, 2029	842	40.3%	61.2%	$369.23	$88.85

Frequently asked WSM expected move questions

What is the current WSM expected move?: As of Sep 30, 2026, Williams-Sonoma, Inc. (WSM) has an expected move of 10.12% over the next 16 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $205.86 to $252.22 from the current $229.04. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the WSM expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is WSM expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.