Williams-Sonoma, Inc. (WSM) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Williams-Sonoma, Inc. (WSM) operates in the Consumer Cyclical sector, specifically the Specialty Retail industry, with a market capitalization near $20.48B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 19,600 people, carrying a beta of 1.49 to the broader market. Williams-Sonoma, Inc. Led by Laura J. Alber, public since 1983-07-07.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $168.56
- Expected Move
- 15.0%
- Implied High
- $193.83
- Implied Low
- $143.29
- Front DTE
- 34 days
As of May 15, 2026, Williams-Sonoma, Inc. (WSM) has an expected move of 14.99%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $143.29 to $193.83 from the current $168.56. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
WSM Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Williams-Sonoma, Inc. pricing an expected move of 14.99% from $168.56, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for WSM derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $168.56 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 52.3% | 16.0% | $195.47 | $141.65 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 46.9% | 19.5% | $201.40 | $135.72 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 98 | 44.9% | 23.3% | $207.78 | $129.34 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 126 | 46.9% | 27.6% | $215.01 | $122.11 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 189 | 46.4% | 33.4% | $224.84 | $112.28 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 217 | 45.5% | 35.1% | $227.70 | $109.42 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 245 | 44.8% | 36.7% | $230.43 | $106.69 |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 308 | 45.6% | 41.9% | $239.17 | $97.95 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 616 | 46.1% | 59.9% | $269.51 | $67.61 |
Frequently asked WSM expected move questions
- What is the current WSM expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, Williams-Sonoma, Inc. (WSM) has an expected move of 14.99% over the next 34 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $143.29 to $193.83 from the current $168.56. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the WSM expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is WSM expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.