What is the current WFC expected move?

As of Jun 30, 2026, Wells Fargo & Company (WFC) has an expected move of 9.33% over the next 31 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $74.91 to $90.33 from the current $82.62. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the WFC expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is WFC expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

Wells Fargo & Company (WFC) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

Wells Fargo & Company (WFC) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Banks - Diversified industry, with a market capitalization near $256.66B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 211,608 people, carrying a beta of 0.93 to the broader market. Wells Fargo & Company, a financial services company, provides diversified banking, investment, mortgage, and consumer and commercial finance products and services in the United States and internationally. Led by Charles W. Scharf, public since 1972-06-01.

Snapshot as of Jun 30, 2026.

Spot Price: $82.62
Expected Move: 9.3%
Implied High: $90.33
Implied Low: $74.91
Front DTE: 31 days

As of Jun 30, 2026, Wells Fargo & Company (WFC) has an expected move of 9.33%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $74.91 to $90.33 from the current $82.62. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

WFC Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With Wells Fargo & Company pricing an expected move of 9.33% from $82.62, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the WFC implied-range chart

The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 9.33%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $74.91 to $90.33. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

WFC expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. WFC term-structure is in backwardation (slope -0.004), so near-dated tenors price in disproportionate vol - usually because of a known event in the front-month window.

Sizing WFC structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. WFC put/call volume ratio currently at 0.86 indicates balanced flow without strong directional skew. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for WFC derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $82.62 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Jul 2, 2026	2	30.6%	2.3%	$84.49	$80.75
Jul 10, 2026	10	26.6%	4.4%	$86.26	$78.98
Jul 17, 2026	17	37.0%	8.0%	$89.22	$76.02
Jul 24, 2026	24	34.4%	8.8%	$89.91	$75.33
Jul 31, 2026	31	32.3%	9.4%	$90.40	$74.84
Aug 7, 2026	38	31.9%	10.3%	$91.12	$74.12
Aug 21, 2026	52	30.6%	11.5%	$92.16	$73.08
Sep 18, 2026	80	29.5%	13.8%	$94.03	$71.21
Oct 16, 2026	108	30.1%	16.4%	$96.15	$69.09
Nov 20, 2026	143	29.9%	18.7%	$98.08	$67.16
Dec 18, 2026	171	29.4%	20.1%	$99.25	$65.99
Jan 15, 2027	199	30.0%	22.2%	$100.92	$64.32
Mar 19, 2027	262	29.8%	25.2%	$103.48	$61.76
Jun 17, 2027	352	30.2%	29.7%	$107.12	$58.12
Dec 17, 2027	535	30.9%	37.4%	$113.53	$51.71
Jan 21, 2028	570	31.1%	38.9%	$114.73	$50.51
Dec 15, 2028	899	31.5%	49.4%	$123.46	$41.78

Frequently asked WFC expected move questions

What is the current WFC expected move?: As of Jun 30, 2026, Wells Fargo & Company (WFC) has an expected move of 9.33% over the next 31 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $74.91 to $90.33 from the current $82.62. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the WFC expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is WFC expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.