Wells Fargo & Company (WFC) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Wells Fargo & Company (WFC) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Banks - Diversified industry, with a market capitalization near $225.02B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 217,000 people, carrying a beta of 0.96 to the broader market. Wells Fargo & Company, a diversified financial services company, provides banking, investment, mortgage, and consumer and commercial finance products and services in the United States and internationally. Led by Charles W. Scharf, public since 1972-06-01.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $73.56
- Expected Move
- 8.3%
- Implied High
- $79.69
- Implied Low
- $67.43
- Front DTE
- 28 days
As of May 15, 2026, Wells Fargo & Company (WFC) has an expected move of 8.33%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $67.43 to $79.69 from the current $73.56. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
WFC Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Wells Fargo & Company pricing an expected move of 8.33% from $73.56, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for WFC derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $73.56 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 22, 2026 | 7 | 28.4% | 3.9% | $76.45 | $70.67 |
| May 29, 2026 | 14 | 27.9% | 5.5% | $77.58 | $69.54 |
| Jun 5, 2026 | 21 | 29.4% | 7.1% | $78.75 | $68.37 |
| Jun 12, 2026 | 28 | 28.8% | 8.0% | $79.43 | $67.69 |
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 29.5% | 9.0% | $80.18 | $66.94 |
| Jun 26, 2026 | 42 | 29.3% | 9.9% | $80.87 | $66.25 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 31.4% | 13.0% | $83.16 | $63.96 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 98 | 31.3% | 16.2% | $85.49 | $61.63 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 126 | 31.1% | 18.3% | $87.00 | $60.12 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 154 | 31.8% | 20.7% | $88.75 | $58.37 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 189 | 31.8% | 22.9% | $90.39 | $56.73 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 217 | 31.5% | 24.3% | $91.43 | $55.69 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 245 | 31.5% | 25.8% | $92.54 | $54.58 |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 308 | 31.5% | 28.9% | $94.85 | $52.27 |
| Jun 17, 2027 | 398 | 31.7% | 33.1% | $97.91 | $49.21 |
| Dec 17, 2027 | 581 | 31.8% | 40.1% | $103.07 | $44.05 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 616 | 32.0% | 41.6% | $104.14 | $42.98 |
| Dec 15, 2028 | 945 | 32.2% | 51.8% | $111.67 | $35.45 |
WFC highest implied-volatility contracts
| Type | Strike | Expiration | Volume | OI | IV | Bid | Ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PUT | $70.00 | Jun 18, 2026 | 67 | 67.3K | 30.7% | $1.20 | $1.25 |
Top 1 contracts from the ORATS-sourced nightly scan; ranked by iv within the broader S&P 500/400/600 + ETF universe.
Frequently asked WFC expected move questions
- What is the current WFC expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, Wells Fargo & Company (WFC) has an expected move of 8.33% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $67.43 to $79.69 from the current $73.56. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the WFC expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is WFC expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.