What is the current WD expected move?

As of Oct 6, 2026, Walker & Dunlop, Inc. (WD) has an expected move of 143.14% over the next 45 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $-15.11 to $85.15 from the current $35.02. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the WD expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is WD expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

Walker & Dunlop, Inc. (WD) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

Walker & Dunlop, Inc. (WD) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Financial - Mortgages industry, with a market capitalization near $1.21B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 1,466 people, carrying a beta of 1.51 to the broader market. Walker & Dunlop, Inc. Led by William Mallory Walker, public since 2010-12-15.

Snapshot as of Oct 6, 2026.

Spot Price: $35.02
Expected Move: 143.1%
Implied High: $85.15
Implied Low: $-15.11
Front DTE: 45 days

As of Oct 6, 2026, Walker & Dunlop, Inc. (WD) has an expected move of 143.14%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $-15.11 to $85.15 from the current $35.02. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

WD Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With Walker & Dunlop, Inc. pricing an expected move of 143.14% from $35.02, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the WD implied-range chart

The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 143.14%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $-15.11 to $85.15. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

WD expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. WD term-structure is in backwardation (slope -0.043), so near-dated tenors price in disproportionate vol - usually because of a known event in the front-month window. Combined with the 100.0% IV rank, the implied move is meaningfully wider than the typical WD trailing range, so even premium-selling structures need wide wings to absorb the elevated regime.

Sizing WD structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. WD put/call volume ratio currently at 0.08 indicates speculative call flow dominates - look for upside-skewed sentiment. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for WD derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $35.02 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Oct 16, 2026	10	499.3%	82.6%	$63.96	$6.08
Nov 20, 2026	45	57.1%	20.0%	$42.04	$28.00
Dec 18, 2026	73	52.8%	23.6%	$43.29	$26.75
Feb 19, 2027	136	41.4%	25.3%	$43.87	$26.17
May 21, 2027	227	41.4%	32.6%	$46.45	$23.59

Frequently asked WD expected move questions

What is the current WD expected move?: As of Oct 6, 2026, Walker & Dunlop, Inc. (WD) has an expected move of 143.14% over the next 45 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $-15.11 to $85.15 from the current $35.02. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the WD expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is WD expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.