What is the current W expected move?

As of Aug 28, 2026, Wayfair Inc. (W) has an expected move of 14.90% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $87.87 to $118.63 from the current $103.25. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the W expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is W expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

Wayfair Inc. (W) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

Wayfair Inc. (W) operates in the Consumer Cyclical sector, specifically the Specialty Retail industry, with a market capitalization near $14.21B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 11,800 people, carrying a beta of 2.98 to the broader market. Wayfair Inc. Led by Niraj S. Shah, public since 2014-10-02.

Snapshot as of Aug 28, 2026.

Spot Price: $103.25
Expected Move: 14.9%
Implied High: $118.63
Implied Low: $87.87
Front DTE: 28 days

As of Aug 28, 2026, Wayfair Inc. (W) has an expected move of 14.90%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $87.87 to $118.63 from the current $103.25. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

W Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With Wayfair Inc. pricing an expected move of 14.90% from $103.25, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the W implied-range chart

The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 14.90%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $87.87 to $118.63. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

W expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. W term-structure is in backwardation (slope -0.004), so near-dated tenors price in disproportionate vol - usually because of a known event in the front-month window. With IV rank at 4.7%, the implied move is at the low end of the typical W range - cheap optionality for buyers, thin premium for sellers.

Sizing W structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. W put/call volume ratio currently at 0.73 indicates balanced flow without strong directional skew. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for W derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $103.25 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Sep 4, 2026	7	49.6%	6.9%	$110.34	$96.16
Sep 11, 2026	14	49.6%	9.7%	$113.28	$93.22
Sep 18, 2026	21	49.2%	11.8%	$115.43	$91.07
Sep 25, 2026	28	52.1%	14.4%	$118.15	$88.35
Oct 2, 2026	35	51.7%	16.0%	$119.78	$86.72
Oct 9, 2026	42	52.9%	17.9%	$121.78	$84.72
Oct 16, 2026	49	51.4%	18.8%	$122.69	$83.81
Nov 20, 2026	84	59.9%	28.7%	$132.92	$73.58
Dec 18, 2026	112	57.3%	31.7%	$136.02	$70.48
Jan 15, 2027	140	55.7%	34.5%	$138.87	$67.63
Feb 19, 2027	175	57.8%	40.0%	$144.57	$61.93
Mar 19, 2027	203	59.0%	44.0%	$148.68	$57.82
Jun 17, 2027	293	61.3%	54.9%	$159.96	$46.54
Aug 20, 2027	357	61.3%	60.6%	$165.84	$40.66
Dec 17, 2027	476	62.1%	70.9%	$176.47	$30.03
Jan 21, 2028	511	61.4%	72.6%	$178.26	$28.24

Frequently asked W expected move questions

What is the current W expected move?: As of Aug 28, 2026, Wayfair Inc. (W) has an expected move of 14.90% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $87.87 to $118.63 from the current $103.25. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the W expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is W expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.