Wayfair Inc. (W) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Wayfair Inc. (W) operates in the Consumer Cyclical sector, specifically the Specialty Retail industry, with a market capitalization near $8.85B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 12,100 people, carrying a beta of 3.02 to the broader market. Wayfair Inc. Led by Niraj S. Shah, public since 2014-10-02.
Snapshot as of May 29, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $72.83
- Expected Move
- 19.4%
- Implied High
- $86.99
- Implied Low
- $58.67
- Front DTE
- 28 days
As of May 29, 2026, Wayfair Inc. (W) has an expected move of 19.44%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $58.67 to $86.99 from the current $72.83. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
W Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Wayfair Inc. pricing an expected move of 19.44% from $72.83, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
How to read the W implied-range chart
The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 19.44%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $58.67 to $86.99. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.
W expected move and event pricing
Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. W term-structure is in backwardation (slope -0.016), so near-dated tenors price in disproportionate vol - usually because of a known event in the front-month window.
Sizing W structures to the expected move
Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. W put/call volume ratio currently at 0.48 indicates speculative call flow dominates - look for upside-skewed sentiment. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for W derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $72.83 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 5, 2026 | 7 | 70.2% | 9.7% | $79.91 | $65.75 |
| Jun 12, 2026 | 14 | 71.0% | 13.9% | $82.96 | $62.70 |
| Jun 18, 2026 | 20 | 69.5% | 16.3% | $84.68 | $60.98 |
| Jun 26, 2026 | 28 | 68.4% | 18.9% | $86.63 | $59.03 |
| Jul 2, 2026 | 34 | 66.8% | 20.4% | $87.68 | $57.98 |
| Jul 10, 2026 | 42 | 67.7% | 23.0% | $89.56 | $56.10 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 49 | 67.9% | 24.9% | $90.95 | $54.71 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 84 | 73.2% | 35.1% | $98.40 | $47.26 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 112 | 71.9% | 39.8% | $101.84 | $43.82 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 175 | 70.6% | 48.9% | $108.43 | $37.23 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 203 | 71.2% | 53.1% | $111.50 | $34.16 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 231 | 69.8% | 55.5% | $113.27 | $32.39 |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 294 | 70.6% | 63.4% | $118.98 | $26.68 |
| Dec 17, 2027 | 567 | 69.1% | 86.1% | $135.55 | $10.11 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 602 | 68.1% | 87.5% | $136.53 | $9.13 |
Frequently asked W expected move questions
- What is the current W expected move?
- As of May 29, 2026, Wayfair Inc. (W) has an expected move of 19.44% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $58.67 to $86.99 from the current $72.83. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the W expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is W expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.