Wayfair Inc. (W) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Wayfair Inc. (W) operates in the Consumer Cyclical sector, specifically the Specialty Retail industry, with a market capitalization near $14.35B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 11,800 people, carrying a beta of 3.02 to the broader market. Wayfair Inc. Led by Niraj S. Shah, public since 2014-10-02.
Snapshot as of Oct 14, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $104.77
- Expected Move
- 21.6%
- Implied High
- $127.45
- Implied Low
- $82.09
- Front DTE
- 30 days
As of Oct 14, 2026, Wayfair Inc. (W) has an expected move of 21.65%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $82.09 to $127.45 from the current $104.77. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
W Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Wayfair Inc. pricing an expected move of 21.65% from $104.77, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
How to read the W implied-range chart
The shaded range below shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 21.65%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $82.09 to $127.45. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.
W expected move and event pricing
Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. W term-structure is in backwardation (slope -0.027), so near-dated tenors price in disproportionate vol - usually because of a known event in the front-month window.
Sizing W structures to the expected move
Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. W put/call volume ratio currently at 0.61 indicates balanced flow without strong directional skew. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for W derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $104.77 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 2 | 65.9% | 4.9% | $109.88 | $99.66 |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 9 | 56.8% | 8.9% | $114.11 | $95.43 |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 16 | 56.7% | 11.9% | $117.21 | $92.33 |
| Nov 6, 2026 | 23 | 83.0% | 20.8% | $126.60 | $82.94 |
| Nov 13, 2026 | 30 | 75.5% | 21.6% | $127.45 | $82.09 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 37 | 72.8% | 23.2% | $129.05 | $80.49 |
| Nov 27, 2026 | 44 | 69.2% | 24.0% | $129.94 | $79.60 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 65 | 65.2% | 27.5% | $133.60 | $75.94 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 93 | 62.0% | 31.3% | $137.56 | $71.98 |
| Feb 19, 2027 | 128 | 61.6% | 36.5% | $142.99 | $66.55 |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 156 | 62.6% | 40.9% | $147.65 | $61.89 |
| May 21, 2027 | 219 | 63.0% | 48.8% | $155.90 | $53.64 |
| Jun 17, 2027 | 246 | 62.0% | 50.9% | $158.10 | $51.44 |
| Aug 20, 2027 | 310 | 62.4% | 57.5% | $165.02 | $44.52 |
| Dec 17, 2027 | 429 | 62.4% | 67.6% | $175.65 | $33.89 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 464 | 61.8% | 69.7% | $177.77 | $31.77 |
| Jan 19, 2029 | 828 | 61.8% | 93.1% | $202.29 | $7.25 |
Frequently asked W expected move questions
- What is the current W expected move?
- As of Oct 14, 2026, Wayfair Inc. (W) has an expected move of 21.65% over the next 30 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $82.09 to $127.45 from the current $104.77. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the W expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is W expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.