Vtex (VTEX) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Vtex (VTEX) operates in the Technology sector, specifically the Software - Application industry, with a market capitalization near $605.2M, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 1,368 people, carrying a beta of 1.05 to the broader market. VTEX provides software-as-a-service digital commerce platform for enterprise brands and retailers. Led by Geraldo do Carmo Thomaz Jr., public since 2021-07-21.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $3.52
- Expected Move
- 50.7%
- Implied High
- $5.30
- Implied Low
- $1.74
- Front DTE
- 34 days
As of May 15, 2026, Vtex (VTEX) has an expected move of 50.69%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $1.74 to $5.30 from the current $3.52. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
VTEX Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Vtex pricing an expected move of 50.69% from $3.52, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for VTEX derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $3.52 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 176.8% | 54.0% | $5.42 | $1.62 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 95.0% | 39.5% | $4.91 | $2.13 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 154 | 63.4% | 41.2% | $4.97 | $2.07 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 245 | 90.2% | 73.9% | $6.12 | $0.92 |
Frequently asked VTEX expected move questions
- What is the current VTEX expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, Vtex (VTEX) has an expected move of 50.69% over the next 34 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $1.74 to $5.30 from the current $3.52. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the VTEX expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is VTEX expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.