Visa Inc. (V) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Visa Inc. (V) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Financial - Credit Services industry, with a market capitalization near $613.98B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 28,800 people, carrying a beta of 0.78 to the broader market. Visa Inc. Led by Ryan McInerney, public since 2008-03-19.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $325.62
- Expected Move
- 6.5%
- Implied High
- $346.88
- Implied Low
- $304.36
- Front DTE
- 28 days
As of May 15, 2026, Visa Inc. (V) has an expected move of 6.53%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $304.36 to $346.88 from the current $325.62. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
V Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Visa Inc. pricing an expected move of 6.53% from $325.62, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for V derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $325.62 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 22, 2026 | 7 | 22.0% | 3.0% | $335.54 | $315.70 |
| May 29, 2026 | 14 | 21.3% | 4.2% | $339.20 | $312.04 |
| Jun 5, 2026 | 21 | 22.4% | 5.4% | $343.12 | $308.12 |
| Jun 12, 2026 | 28 | 23.0% | 6.4% | $346.36 | $304.88 |
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 22.4% | 6.8% | $347.88 | $303.36 |
| Jun 26, 2026 | 42 | 22.5% | 7.6% | $350.47 | $300.77 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 22.5% | 9.3% | $356.06 | $295.18 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 98 | 24.4% | 12.6% | $366.79 | $284.45 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 126 | 24.4% | 14.3% | $372.30 | $278.94 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 189 | 25.0% | 18.0% | $384.20 | $267.04 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 217 | 24.9% | 19.2% | $388.14 | $263.10 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 245 | 25.1% | 20.6% | $392.58 | $258.66 |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 308 | 25.2% | 23.1% | $401.00 | $250.24 |
| Jun 17, 2027 | 398 | 25.3% | 26.4% | $411.65 | $239.59 |
| Dec 17, 2027 | 581 | 25.7% | 32.4% | $431.20 | $220.04 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 616 | 25.6% | 33.3% | $433.91 | $217.33 |
| Dec 15, 2028 | 945 | 26.2% | 42.2% | $462.89 | $188.35 |
Frequently asked V expected move questions
- What is the current V expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, Visa Inc. (V) has an expected move of 6.53% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $304.36 to $346.88 from the current $325.62. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the V expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is V expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.