Visa Inc. (V) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Visa Inc. (V) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Financial - Credit Services industry, with a market capitalization near $644.49B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 28,800 people, carrying a beta of 0.77 to the broader market. Visa Inc. Led by Ryan McInerney, public since 2008-03-19.
Snapshot as of Jun 30, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $343.22
- Expected Move
- 7.1%
- Implied High
- $367.50
- Implied Low
- $318.94
- Front DTE
- 31 days
As of Jun 30, 2026, Visa Inc. (V) has an expected move of 7.07%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $318.94 to $367.50 from the current $343.22. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
V Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Visa Inc. pricing an expected move of 7.07% from $343.22, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
How to read the V implied-range chart
The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 7.07%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $318.94 to $367.50. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.
V expected move and event pricing
Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. V term-structure is in backwardation (slope -0.002), so near-dated tenors price in disproportionate vol - usually because of a known event in the front-month window.
Sizing V structures to the expected move
Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. V put/call volume ratio currently at 0.66 indicates balanced flow without strong directional skew. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for V derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $343.22 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2, 2026 | 2 | 25.8% | 1.9% | $349.77 | $336.67 |
| Jul 10, 2026 | 10 | 21.1% | 3.5% | $355.21 | $331.23 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 17 | 21.2% | 4.6% | $358.92 | $327.52 |
| Jul 24, 2026 | 24 | 21.1% | 5.4% | $361.79 | $324.65 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | 31 | 25.1% | 7.3% | $368.33 | $318.11 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | 38 | 24.9% | 8.0% | $370.80 | $315.64 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 52 | 23.9% | 9.0% | $374.18 | $312.26 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 80 | 23.2% | 10.9% | $380.50 | $305.94 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 143 | 24.3% | 15.2% | $395.42 | $291.02 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 171 | 24.4% | 16.7% | $400.54 | $285.90 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 199 | 24.2% | 17.9% | $404.55 | $281.89 |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 262 | 24.6% | 20.8% | $414.75 | $271.69 |
| Jun 17, 2027 | 352 | 24.8% | 24.4% | $426.81 | $259.63 |
| Dec 17, 2027 | 535 | 25.8% | 31.2% | $450.43 | $236.01 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 570 | 25.8% | 32.2% | $453.88 | $232.56 |
| Dec 15, 2028 | 899 | 26.3% | 41.3% | $484.88 | $201.56 |
Frequently asked V expected move questions
- What is the current V expected move?
- As of Jun 30, 2026, Visa Inc. (V) has an expected move of 7.07% over the next 31 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $318.94 to $367.50 from the current $343.22. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the V expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is V expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.