What is the current V expected move?

As of Sep 30, 2026, Visa Inc. (V) has an expected move of 7.11% over the next 30 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $334.86 to $386.12 from the current $360.49. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the V expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is V expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

Visa Inc. (V) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

Visa Inc. (V) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Financial - Credit Services industry, with a market capitalization near $670.89B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 34,100 people, carrying a beta of 0.76 to the broader market. Visa Inc. Led by Ryan McInerney, public since 2008-03-19.

Snapshot as of Sep 30, 2026.

Spot Price: $360.49
Expected Move: 7.1%
Implied High: $386.12
Implied Low: $334.86
Front DTE: 30 days

As of Sep 30, 2026, Visa Inc. (V) has an expected move of 7.11%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $334.86 to $386.12 from the current $360.49. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

V Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With Visa Inc. pricing an expected move of 7.11% from $360.49, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the V implied-range chart

The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 7.11%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $334.86 to $386.12. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

V expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. V term-structure is in backwardation (slope -0.001), so near-dated tenors price in disproportionate vol - usually because of a known event in the front-month window.

Sizing V structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. V put/call volume ratio currently at 0.64 indicates balanced flow without strong directional skew. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for V derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $360.49 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Oct 2, 2026	2	23.7%	1.8%	$366.81	$354.17
Oct 9, 2026	9	21.3%	3.3%	$372.55	$348.43
Oct 16, 2026	16	20.6%	4.3%	$376.04	$344.94
Oct 23, 2026	23	21.8%	5.5%	$380.22	$340.76
Oct 30, 2026	30	24.8%	7.1%	$386.12	$334.86
Nov 6, 2026	37	24.7%	7.9%	$388.84	$332.14
Nov 20, 2026	51	23.7%	8.9%	$392.43	$328.55
Dec 18, 2026	79	23.1%	10.7%	$399.23	$321.75
Jan 15, 2027	107	22.8%	12.3%	$404.99	$315.99
Mar 19, 2027	170	23.8%	16.2%	$419.04	$301.94
Jun 17, 2027	260	24.3%	20.5%	$434.42	$286.56
Aug 20, 2027	324	24.7%	23.3%	$444.38	$276.60
Sep 17, 2027	352	24.3%	23.9%	$446.51	$274.47
Dec 17, 2027	443	24.6%	27.1%	$458.19	$262.79
Jan 21, 2028	478	24.6%	28.2%	$461.97	$259.01
Jun 16, 2028	625	24.6%	32.2%	$476.53	$244.45
Sep 15, 2028	716	24.6%	34.5%	$484.69	$236.29
Dec 15, 2028	807	24.8%	36.9%	$493.42	$227.56
Jan 19, 2029	842	24.9%	37.8%	$496.82	$224.16

Frequently asked V expected move questions

What is the current V expected move?: As of Sep 30, 2026, Visa Inc. (V) has an expected move of 7.11% over the next 30 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $334.86 to $386.12 from the current $360.49. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the V expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is V expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.