USA Compression Partners, LP (USAC) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

USA Compression Partners, LP (USAC) operates in the Energy sector, specifically the Oil & Gas Equipment & Services industry, with a market capitalization near $3.68B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 885 people, carrying a beta of 0.20 to the broader market. USA Compression Partners, LP, a growth-focused Delaware limited partnership, is a leading provider of natural gas compression services, notably possessing the industry's largest compression fleet by horsepower. Led by Micah C. Green, public since 2013-01-15.

Snapshot as of Oct 14, 2026.

Spot Price

$25.05

Expected Move

13.5%

Implied High

$28.42

Implied Low

$21.68

Front DTE

37 days

As of Oct 14, 2026, USA Compression Partners, LP (USAC) has an expected move of 13.46%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $21.68 to $28.42 from the current $25.05. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

USAC Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With USA Compression Partners, LP pricing an expected move of 13.46% from $25.05, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the USAC implied-range chart

The shaded range below shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 13.46%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $21.68 to $28.42. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

USAC expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. USAC term-structure is in backwardation (slope -0.198), so near-dated tenors price in disproportionate vol - usually because of a known event in the front-month window. With IV rank at 17.6%, the implied move is at the low end of the typical USAC range - cheap optionality for buyers, thin premium for sellers.

Sizing USAC structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. USAC put/call volume ratio currently at 4.00 indicates protective put flow dominates - look for hedged-money positioning into the move. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Per-expiration expected move for USAC derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $25.05 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.