Is UNP options pricing rich or cheap right now?

As of Jun 30, 2026, Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) ATM IV is 31.9% against 20-day realized volatility of 25.6%. IV rank is 88.8%. UNP options are pricing in more volatility than the stock has recently realized: a positive variance risk premium worth 6.4 vol points.

What is the UNP variance risk premium?

The variance risk premium is the persistent gap between implied and subsequently realized volatility. In equity markets it averages positive because option sellers demand compensation for bearing variance shocks. UNP is currently priced consistently with this premium, which is one input to whether short-vol or long-vol structures carry their typical edge.

What does UNP IV rank mean for strategy selection?

IV rank normalizes the current ATM IV to its 1-year range: 0% is the low, 100% is the high. UNP's current rank of 88.8% signals where current pricing sits in its own 1-year history. High-rank regimes typically favor premium-selling structures (credit spreads, condors, covered calls); low-rank regimes typically favor premium-buying or long-volatility structures.

Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) IV/HV History

Comparing implied volatility to historical (realized) volatility reveals whether options are priced rich or cheap relative to actual price movement. Persistent gaps can signal trading opportunities.

Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) operates in the Industrials sector, specifically the Railroads industry, with a market capitalization near $159.32B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 30,146 people, carrying a beta of 0.97 to the broader market. Union Pacific Corporation, a prominent American railway enterprise, conducts its primary operations through its subsidiary, Union Pacific Railroad Company. Led by Vincenzo James Vena, public since 1980-01-02.

Snapshot as of Jun 30, 2026.

Spot Price: $272.06
ATM IV: 31.9%
HV 20-Day: 25.6%
HV 60-Day: 27.2%
IV Rank: 88.8%
IV Percentile: 98.8%

As of Jun 30, 2026, Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) ATM implied volatility is 31.9%. 20-day realized volatility is 25.6%, producing an IV-HV spread of +6.4 vol points. Options are pricing in more volatility than the stock has recently delivered, the volatility risk premium. IV rank is 88.8%.

How UNP iv/hv history Data Feeds Strategy Selection

Strategy selection on Union Pacific Corporation options does not derive from any single metric in isolation. The iv/hv history view above sits inside a broader read: ATM IV currently sits at 31.9% and dealer gamma exposure is positive, so dealer hedging is mechanically mean-reverting. Combine the iv/hv history data here with the volatility-skew surface, dealer-gamma exposure, max-pain level, and upcoming-events calendar to build a positioning thesis. Risk-defined structures (credit spreads, debit spreads, iron condors) are usually safer than naked positions while the regime is uncertain; the data on this page anchors the inputs but does not by itself constitute a trade thesis.

How to read the UNP IV vs HV chart

The dual-line chart above tracks ATM implied volatility (forward-looking, what the chain is pricing) against 20-day realized historical volatility (backward-looking, what actually happened). ATM IV currently prints at 31.9%, 88.8% IV rank, against 25.6% realized over the trailing 20 trading days. Implied is pricing above realized by 6.4 vol points, the typical variance-risk-premium positive state in which premium sellers earn the gap. Persistent IV-above-HV is the variance-risk-premium-positive state typical of equity markets; persistent IV-below-HV is rare and usually marks underpriced vol that often expands.

UNP IV/HV regimes and trade selection

UNP sits in the top quartile of its 1-year IV range. High-IV-rank regimes statistically favor premium-selling - the elevated implied is more likely to mean-revert than to expand further. Iron condors, covered calls, and cash-secured puts collect more premium per unit of notional risk; size wings to the implied move and exit on first sign of HV catching up.

Using UNP vol history alongside the term structure

The IV/HV gap on this page captures the level of premium; the term-structure slope on the volatility page captures its shape across expirations. Backwardation (negative slope -0.025) indicates acute near-term event risk - near-dated tenors price disproportionate vol. Pair the rank read with the slope read with the event calendar to choose the right tenor for the structure.

UNP IV/HV signal in volatility-cycle context

Equity-vol cycles tend to compress and expand on multi-month timeframes: a typical sequence runs low-IV-rank consolidation (months of flat tape, decaying premium) into a vol-expansion catalyst (earnings miss, macro shock, regime change) into elevated-IV-rank stress (premiums fat, dispersion high) back to mean-reverting compression. UNP's current 88.8% IV rank places the ticker in the expansion or stress phase of that cycle. Premium-selling carries the typical structural tailwind here, but the mean-reverting compression that completes the cycle has historically arrived sharply rather than gradually. The ratio of HV-20 (25.6%) to HV-60 (27.2%) gives a second cycle indicator: when 20-day exceeds 60-day, recent realization is running hotter than the trailing-quarter average - typically a sign that recent days have already started expanding vol regardless of where IV rank prints. Use the time series above to spot inflection points: meaningful IV/HV gap closures and openings tend to precede regime shifts by a few sessions.

Learn how implied vs realized volatility is reported and how to read the data →

Daily ATM implied volatility and 20-day realized (historical) volatility for UNP over the last ~41 trading days. The IV-HV gap measures the variance risk premium - when IV trades persistently above realized HV, premium-sellers earn the spread; when IV dips below HV, vol is structurally underpriced.

Daily values from end-of-day option_ticker_snapshots. Series sparse on illiquid tickers reflects gaps in the upstream end-of-day options data feed.

Most recent 15 trading days (descending). Older history appears in the chart above.

Date	ATM IV	HV 20d	HV 60d	IV Rank
Jun 30, 2026	31.9%	25.6%	27.2%	88.8%
Jun 29, 2026	30.0%	25.6%	27.2%	76.3%
Jun 26, 2026	28.7%	26.3%	27.2%	68.6%
Jun 25, 2026	29.8%	29.5%	27.3%	75.5%
Jun 24, 2026	28.3%	28.8%	26.7%	65.8%
Jun 23, 2026	26.9%	30.3%	26.7%	56.9%
Jun 22, 2026	27.1%	30.3%	26.8%	58.1%
Jun 18, 2026	24.8%	30.0%	26.7%	43.8%
Jun 17, 2026	24.3%	30.9%	26.7%	40.5%
Jun 16, 2026	23.4%	27.6%	25.7%	34.9%
Jun 15, 2026	23.7%	28.7%	25.7%	36.7%
Jun 12, 2026	23.5%	28.2%	25.5%	35.6%
Jun 11, 2026	25.7%	28.2%	26.1%	49.0%
Jun 10, 2026	26.8%	28.2%	26.1%	56.3%
Jun 9, 2026	27.0%	28.2%	26.0%	57.3%

Frequently asked UNP iv/hv history questions

Is UNP options pricing rich or cheap right now?: As of Jun 30, 2026, Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) ATM IV is 31.9% against 20-day realized volatility of 25.6%. IV rank is 88.8%. UNP options are pricing in more volatility than the stock has recently realized: a positive variance risk premium worth 6.4 vol points.
What is the UNP variance risk premium?: The variance risk premium is the persistent gap between implied and subsequently realized volatility. In equity markets it averages positive because option sellers demand compensation for bearing variance shocks. UNP is currently priced consistently with this premium, which is one input to whether short-vol or long-vol structures carry their typical edge.
What does UNP IV rank mean for strategy selection?: IV rank normalizes the current ATM IV to its 1-year range: 0% is the low, 100% is the high. UNP's current rank of 88.8% signals where current pricing sits in its own 1-year history. High-rank regimes typically favor premium-selling structures (credit spreads, condors, covered calls); low-rank regimes typically favor premium-buying or long-volatility structures.