U-Haul Holding Company (UHAL) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
U-Haul Holding Company (UHAL) operates in the Industrials sector, specifically the Rental & Leasing Services industry, with a market capitalization near $9.41B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 17,836 people, carrying a beta of 1.11 to the broader market. U-Haul Holding Company operates as a do-it-yourself moving and storage operator for household and commercial goods in the United States and Canada. Led by Edward Joseph Shoen, public since 1994-11-04.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $48.70
- Expected Move
- 10.1%
- Implied High
- $53.61
- Implied Low
- $43.79
- Front DTE
- 34 days
As of May 15, 2026, U-Haul Holding Company (UHAL) has an expected move of 10.09%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $43.79 to $53.61 from the current $48.70. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
UHAL Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With U-Haul Holding Company pricing an expected move of 10.09% from $48.70, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for UHAL derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $48.70 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 35.2% | 10.7% | $53.93 | $43.47 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 34.7% | 14.4% | $55.72 | $41.68 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 126 | 33.8% | 19.9% | $58.37 | $39.03 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 217 | 33.1% | 25.5% | $61.13 | $36.27 |
Frequently asked UHAL expected move questions
- What is the current UHAL expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, U-Haul Holding Company (UHAL) has an expected move of 10.09% over the next 34 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $43.79 to $53.61 from the current $48.70. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the UHAL expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is UHAL expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.