Unity Software Inc. (U) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Unity Software Inc. (U) operates in the Technology sector, specifically the Software - Application industry, with a market capitalization near $11.74B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 4,987 people, carrying a beta of 2.04 to the broader market. Unity Software Inc. Led by Matthew Samuel Bromberg, public since 2020-09-18.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $27.55
- Expected Move
- 19.3%
- Implied High
- $32.87
- Implied Low
- $22.23
- Front DTE
- 28 days
As of May 15, 2026, Unity Software Inc. (U) has an expected move of 19.31%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $22.23 to $32.87 from the current $27.55. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
U Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Unity Software Inc. pricing an expected move of 19.31% from $27.55, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for U derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $27.55 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 22, 2026 | 7 | 70.0% | 9.7% | $30.22 | $24.88 |
| May 29, 2026 | 14 | 66.9% | 13.1% | $31.16 | $23.94 |
| Jun 5, 2026 | 21 | 65.6% | 15.7% | $31.88 | $23.22 |
| Jun 12, 2026 | 28 | 67.8% | 18.8% | $32.72 | $22.38 |
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 66.6% | 20.3% | $33.15 | $21.95 |
| Jun 26, 2026 | 42 | 65.3% | 22.2% | $33.65 | $21.45 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 65.9% | 27.4% | $35.09 | $20.01 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 98 | 70.0% | 36.3% | $37.54 | $17.56 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 189 | 71.9% | 51.7% | $41.80 | $13.30 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 245 | 70.5% | 57.8% | $43.46 | $11.64 |
| Feb 19, 2027 | 280 | 71.7% | 62.8% | $44.85 | $10.25 |
| May 21, 2027 | 371 | 72.4% | 73.0% | $47.66 | $7.44 |
| Dec 17, 2027 | 581 | 69.3% | 87.4% | $51.64 | $3.46 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 616 | 71.1% | 92.4% | $53.00 | $2.10 |
Frequently asked U expected move questions
- What is the current U expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, Unity Software Inc. (U) has an expected move of 19.31% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $22.23 to $32.87 from the current $27.55. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the U expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is U expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.