Unity Software Inc. (U) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Unity Software Inc. (U) operates in the Technology sector, specifically the Software - Application industry, with a market capitalization near $12.32B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 4,987 people, carrying a beta of 2.05 to the broader market. Unity Software Inc. Led by Matthew Samuel Bromberg, public since 2020-09-18.
Snapshot as of Jun 30, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $28.48
- Expected Move
- 19.6%
- Implied High
- $34.06
- Implied Low
- $22.90
- Front DTE
- 31 days
As of Jun 30, 2026, Unity Software Inc. (U) has an expected move of 19.60%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $22.90 to $34.06 from the current $28.48. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
U Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Unity Software Inc. pricing an expected move of 19.60% from $28.48, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
How to read the U implied-range chart
The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 19.60%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $22.90 to $34.06. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.
U expected move and event pricing
Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. U term-structure is in contango (slope 0.055), so longer-dated tenors price in proportionally more vol than √time scaling alone would suggest - typically because long-dated cycles include uncertain macro states. With IV rank at 24.8%, the implied move is at the low end of the typical U range - cheap optionality for buyers, thin premium for sellers.
Sizing U structures to the expected move
Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. U put/call volume ratio currently at 0.36 indicates speculative call flow dominates - look for upside-skewed sentiment. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for U derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $28.48 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2, 2026 | 2 | 78.9% | 5.8% | $30.14 | $26.82 |
| Jul 10, 2026 | 10 | 66.4% | 11.0% | $31.61 | $25.35 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 17 | 65.3% | 14.1% | $32.49 | $24.47 |
| Jul 24, 2026 | 24 | 66.6% | 17.1% | $33.34 | $23.62 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | 31 | 68.6% | 20.0% | $34.17 | $22.79 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | 38 | 74.1% | 23.9% | $35.29 | $21.67 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 52 | 75.4% | 28.5% | $36.59 | $20.37 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 143 | 74.1% | 46.4% | $41.69 | $15.27 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 199 | 72.4% | 53.5% | $43.71 | $13.25 |
| Feb 19, 2027 | 234 | 73.3% | 58.7% | $45.19 | $11.77 |
| May 21, 2027 | 325 | 75.0% | 70.8% | $48.64 | $8.32 |
| Dec 17, 2027 | 535 | 73.8% | 89.3% | $53.93 | $3.03 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 570 | 73.4% | 91.7% | $54.60 | $2.36 |
Frequently asked U expected move questions
- What is the current U expected move?
- As of Jun 30, 2026, Unity Software Inc. (U) has an expected move of 19.60% over the next 31 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $22.90 to $34.06 from the current $28.48. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the U expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is U expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.