Tri Pointe Homes, Inc. (TPH) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

Tri Pointe Homes, Inc. (TPH) operates in the Consumer Cyclical sector, specifically the Residential Construction industry, with a market capitalization near $4.00B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 1,750 people, carrying a beta of 1.16 to the broader market. Tri Pointe Homes, Inc. Led by Douglas F. Bauer, public since 2013-01-31.

Snapshot as of May 22, 2026.

Spot Price

$46.60

Expected Move

0.7%

Implied High

$46.95

Implied Low

$46.25

Front DTE

27 days

As of May 22, 2026, Tri Pointe Homes, Inc. (TPH) has an expected move of 0.75%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $46.25 to $46.95 from the current $46.60. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

TPH Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With Tri Pointe Homes, Inc. pricing an expected move of 0.75% from $46.60, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the TPH implied-range chart

The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 0.75%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $46.25 to $46.95. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

TPH expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. TPH term-structure is in contango (slope 0.099), so longer-dated tenors price in proportionally more vol than √time scaling alone would suggest - typically because long-dated cycles include uncertain macro states. With IV rank at 0.0%, the implied move is at the low end of the typical TPH range - cheap optionality for buyers, thin premium for sellers.

Sizing TPH structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Per-expiration expected move for TPH derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $46.60 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.