What is the current TOPW expected move?

As of May 29, 2026, Roundhill Investments - Top WeeklyPay ETF (TOPW) has an expected move of 79.04% over the next 20 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $8.15 to $69.65 from the current $38.90. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the TOPW expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is TOPW expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

Roundhill Investments - Top WeeklyPay ETF (TOPW) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

Roundhill Investments - Top WeeklyPay ETF (TOPW) operates in the Consumer Cyclical sector, specifically the Luxury Goods industry, with a market capitalization near $962.0M, listed on CBOE, employing roughly 7 people, carrying a beta of 1.68 to the broader market. Top Win International Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in trading, distribution, and retail of luxury watches in Hong Kong. Led by Kwan Ngai, public since 2025-09-04.

Snapshot as of May 29, 2026.

Spot Price: $38.90
Expected Move: 79.0%
Implied High: $69.65
Implied Low: $8.15
Front DTE: 20 days

As of May 29, 2026, Roundhill Investments - Top WeeklyPay ETF (TOPW) has an expected move of 79.04%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $8.15 to $69.65 from the current $38.90. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

TOPW Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With Roundhill Investments - Top WeeklyPay ETF pricing an expected move of 79.04% from $38.90, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the TOPW implied-range chart

The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 79.04%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $8.15 to $69.65. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

TOPW expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. TOPW term-structure is in backwardation (slope -2.379), so near-dated tenors price in disproportionate vol - usually because of a known event in the front-month window.

Sizing TOPW structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for TOPW derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $38.90 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Jun 18, 2026	20	275.7%	64.5%	$64.00	$13.80
Jul 17, 2026	49	37.8%	13.8%	$44.29	$33.51
Sep 18, 2026	112	33.7%	18.7%	$46.16	$31.64
Dec 18, 2026	203	41.1%	30.7%	$50.82	$26.98

Frequently asked TOPW expected move questions

What is the current TOPW expected move?: As of May 29, 2026, Roundhill Investments - Top WeeklyPay ETF (TOPW) has an expected move of 79.04% over the next 20 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $8.15 to $69.65 from the current $38.90. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the TOPW expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is TOPW expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.